STEEL counters rally again??!

Technical wise, ENGTEX is overbought. I'll wait for it to retrace before trading it

AIRASIA, no relief in sight. Longs better sell now before its too late.

Come on CI, lets go down more!

Game over for AirAsia.

Careful, the Malaysian market will continue its downwards trend on bets that BanK Negara might raise interest rate in the near future to combat inflation; not to mention political instability.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: May 28 2008, 12:23 AM

That's because the economic fundamentals are weak here in Malaysia. All these talk about removing fuel subsidies are a clear sign that Malaysia is severely hurt with it's current budget deficit.

The CI might further goes down when U.S releases the GDP numbers on 29th, and durable orders on 28th.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: May 28 2008, 10:44 AM

Yes, i already have my bachelors in business management and economics. Every year the CFA fee is increasing. The passing rate is an alarming 39% ONLY!


Update: Tenanga seen buying Genting's power assets; Sime Darby Q3 results and Malaysia's GDP releasing today.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: May 28 2008, 10:57 AM

He probably will, if he has good mathematical analytical skills. IF you look at the CFA Level III papers, its all contruction of hypothesis models (profit maximizing, risk management) So if he's very good in numbers, and analyzing the small details, there will be no problems for him.

Cheer up, you can always make the money back.

No, the RM is plunging due to the uncertainty of the economy. But many foreign funds will offload their malaysian equity investments for more lucrative market such as commodities and other emerging economies.

I won't suggest to buy just yet. Wait for a further drop in blue chips counter before going in. It's still early.

I am looking forward for RAB to increase IR by another 0.5 basis points, or 2 more IR increase. SO, buying the aussie dollar now and hold till the end of this year will earn a much better rate of return compare to buying equities in Malaysia. Just my 2 cents.

You will be affected if the real inflation rate increases. I doubt the RBNZ will decrease IR anytime soon.

Firstly you will be exposed to two main risks.

a) Currency risk
IR goes down, currency depreciates. Hence you might lose some money during conversion.

b) Inflation risk
Since no one knows the top of oil (bear in mind, its hurricane season in the US, there is a possibility of a hurricane striking refineries nearby texas/louisaina.), we do not when inflation rate peaks. If the RBNZ decreases rate, and if oil continues its surge towards $150, your purchasing power will decrease.


Try taking a look at the NZ government 3,10 bond yields. Might give you a clue in where the IR is heading.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: May 28 2008, 01:32 PM

When the IR increases, the home currency will increase as investments (both foreign and home) will pour in due to higher rate of return. In this case, more Malaysians will dump ringgit and go for better yields such as Singapore dollar or Aussie dollar.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: May 28 2008, 01:37 PM

Yes, lower interest rates will increase local consumption, because of cheaper financing. On the downside, cheaper financing will fuel inflation.

What i meant on my statement above is foreign and home funds will put their money in FDs to receive higher interests in their deposits. Do remember that FDs are safe havens. (lowest risk)

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: May 28 2008, 02:14 PM

Not just yet. Our real GDP might be less than 1%. That's not good for our overall economy. You might be able to pick blue chips at a much lower price than it is today.

CI falling down???

Very bearish...