If I got 'Jalan', I am already a big fish lah.

Doing abitrage, with million of shares, without much risk (buy Malaysia, sell in HK), easy get few hundred K per day if the disparity is big. Fund managers can do it (borrow shares in HK and sell then buy in Malaysia then send it to there afterwards), we small small retailers where can? Not being slaughtered by big sharks and getting peanut already happy liao.

Tonight, Fed will decide whether to cut how much interest rate. Market is divided right now, some said 0.25% then will pause, not many will go for 0.50%.
In US, the real interest rate is negative already. Losing money by putting FD in the bank because inflation rate > interest rate.

Btw, Maybank only 8 now while Pbbank keep on charging.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Apr 30 2008, 04:00 PM

Whole Asia, are you sure? I don't think Japan got.

Surely benefit? can be escape as well one.

Not sure how market will react to the rate cut, Fed tone should be the focus point, if said worry about inflation, then probably pause which mean this round of rate cut cycle is finished, market might take it negatively.

Anyway, Asian bourses are somehow detached a bit, not closely monitor how US market performing right now.

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Added on April 30, 2008, 4:12 pmBut I knew China has somehow long hiliday (about a week) in May.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Apr 30 2008, 04:12 PM

Should be all time low as well.

Main culprit ->> oil price USD120/barrel.

Today last day ofr FKLI April settlement <--- push up few points, earn more mah.

A fake index to look at especially every month end.

What fund managers care most is their performance card. After all, gain or loss is not their hard-earned money, feeling is not the same, so decision making consideration is not as same as we small fish.

I don't think it is good for AirAsia to spend more money to buy another airliners.

Don't get me wrong, expansion programme is always good for company future earning. But with Airasia going to have more than 100 fleet of A320, which mean Airasia will be in high gearing already, further borrowing will increase the gearing further.

If Airasia is hedgeing at USD 130, that's mean if fuel price goes down, it will harm it fuel cost. Only if oil price going more than 130, then it will benefit from the hedge.

Not possible (or plain stupidity) for people to hedge at 130 while current or spot price is 110-120 only. (Too much money to burn?) In oil price future, the longer the futures duration, a little cheaper it is.

I don't think this news/rumour has sound footing.

Btw, with commodities price plunging yesterday due to strength of USD, (if this trend continue), some plantation stocks may under some selling pressure, as plantation stocks valuation is rich currently.

Even gold price is dipping due to strength of USD <--- that's why when people rushing into one particular investment product, then should be wary. We have gold account, gold investment product launched by banks recently.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 2 2008, 04:39 PM

Yup, that's true, but if Fed stop cutting interest and if US econonmy and real estate problem does improve then it can be a short term strong support for the dollar.
But over long term, as long as the trade deficit is still staying tremendously high and no sign of improvement, it is still the major bearish factor for long term.

Btw,
Maybank being suspended suddenly, can't wait for another 10-15 mintues when market close at 5.00pm also. So rush even 15 minutes also cannot wait?

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 2 2008, 04:52 PM

Aiya, it doesn't say it hedge at USD 130 lah, it means it had hedged some of their fuel position even if oil price hit USD130 won't be affecting them (in term of profitability) for six months period.

Zhulian is a jewellery producer ,(famous for its gold-plated costume jewellery). Gals like one.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 2 2008, 05:31 PM

Your standard higher mah, gold-plated won't attract you anymore.

It also using MLM sales strategy also. Check this artile on thestar. http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...54&sec=business

Short term, anything investors feel any related stuff or syndicate is pushing will move it up or down,

But long term, very simple and one factor -> the ability of the company to generate profit and lead the company grow to generate more wealth to its shareholders (in term of shareholding valuation) also ability to give consistent dividend yield that is higher than deposit rate to its shareholders. Dividend is subjected to debatable but still company needs to able to generate wealth to its shareholders whether to give dividend or not, it is another story which can be lengthy in discussion.

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Added on May 2, 2008, 9:14 pmErrr.. US and Europe and regional Asian bourses might follow closely to US, but Malaysia today already show it can be playing 'upside down' one.
Today all Asian bourses registered quite significant gain overall, but KLCI down more than 5 points.

Mainly because since after election, political issues are not clearing up. It makes worst with mega projects being cancelled or threaten to be cancelled which might drag the economy growth. Not to mention those 'corridors' project whether financial viable or not. Also gov planned ro remove diesel subsidy in near term might have very large implication to industrial also consumers front which will be directly hit on public pocket eventually affect spending power and consumption.

Not to pour cold water, but this is the reality of Malaysia situation is facing. Some selected stocks with strong fundamental will shine as those relied on purely on their competitiveness one but not for those by political related, also I don't think overall market will perform as good as last year.
I do think we will have below average performance for this year until 3-4Q at least, just my personal opinion and I could be wrong.

If US market up with USD surging then it might mean commodities price dropping, like crude oil and soy bean/palm oil (soy bean is the head to head competitor for palm oil), which will mean plantation stocks might not performing as good. Bare in mind, KLSE surging to near 1500 (14xx) not because of bullishness of the overall market but because of selective plantation and O&G related stocks.

Just my 2 cents.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 2 2008, 09:14 PM

Another CWs fan spotted.

Stock market worldwide is a bit bullish at the moment as lot of 'parked money' in the US treasuries and fixed income as well as those in commodities (gold, oil etc) are 'freeing' out to the equities market because lot of people believe the worst of credit crunch and subprime is over, and only can get better.

So as you mean when to buy KLSE?
Just joking.

Also with Fed keep on pumping money into the credit market 100 billions, 200 billions, it will only flood the market with full of money. Eventually those money needs to find somewhere to go, right?
But pumping too much liquidity will only result inflation but inflation is a slowly show up beast, it won't emerge straight away one. So it is the risk of associated with it.


This post has been edited by cherroy: May 2 2008, 09:34 PM

Statistically based on historical data, most of the time 3rd Q around Aug-Sept, market mostly will have some hard time. But it doesn't mean it is the same every year, just may be 6 or 7/10.

1Q generally is the best performing Q especially beginning of the year (but DJ, and other bourses including KLSE) has a poor 1Q this year.

Better look at events and economy environment to determine whether market will have good time or not. Economy growth and company earning are the ultimate factors to determine market will have bull run or not.

Bull run always associated better and prosperous economy growth in the near future as stock market generally moves ahead about 3-6 months as stock market is a forward looking mechanism not backwards.

But do remember to monitor CPO price as well. If CPO dropped to 3000 level or below, then lot of plantation stocks will under some selling pressure. But Monday should be good for CPO as SoyBean surged more than 2% and oil jumped USD3 on Friday close.

But today PM comment on the cancellation or postpone of development projects (I don't think got specify, just a general statement based on today news) and concentrate on farming activities first to boast production for crops might impact some construction stocks furthermore.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 4 2008, 12:16 AM

It depends on how market moves and condition. Not the same everyday.

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Added on May 5, 2008, 3:01 pmNo, there is no such thing of they just wake up and come to trade, but just market sometimes takes the cue from the European market opening.
Foreign investors (fund houses) got dedicated fund managers on each bourse and positioning their managers to the region.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 5 2008, 03:01 PM

I pick up what Warren Buffett said in the news conference for Berkshire annual meeting on Sunday.

.

This is one of example why personally likes to see company giving out dividend when got extra cash instead of using the cash to buy back their own stock.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 5 2008, 03:35 PM