Nobody knows how it is will play out and how long.

But just FYI, when tech bubble burst time, it takes 3-4 years before recovering, Asian financial crisis take about 2-3 years before climbing back.
Subprime mess was happening since last year August, now about 7 months old.

The bright side is, stock market was not having bubble when subprime bomb exploded, only those real estate stocks were having some bubble, not overall market, so degree of damage on overall market is lesser but real estate and related to real estate financing stocks are suffering big time, lot of them drop more than 60-70% from its peak.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 15 2008, 06:14 PM

Most probably whole Asian will be dropping as well due to Bear Sterns news.

March 18, Fed is going to cut interest again.

It is unusual for a bourse drops more than 10%. Only happened once to twice in the whole history of stock market. It is the first time KLSE experience the 'circuit breaker'.

I don't think the announcement of cabinet will push the market higher, may be it will bring up some stability on gov side, but politically still lot of uncertainty, see the Perlis MB issue as well as political pressure to resign on MCA and PM.

It will be while before the while situation settle down, no quick fix.

Gosh, JPMorgan buys Bear Stern at USD 2.00 only!

Bear Stern last Friday close was 30.00 (Thursday close was around 57.00)

Fed had a emergency cut the discount rate 0.25% to 3.25% prior just 2 days before the Fed meeting on Tuesday. Fed hit panic button again.

This is more severe than everyone previous think, especially the JPMorgan buy at 2.00 when the market price is 30.00!

When the market price is 30.00 but JPMorgan said to you I only want to take at 2.00.

It just shows the severity of liquidity Bear Sterns is facing as JPMorgan help Bear Sterns as a clearing bank to borrow 30 billions through discount window from the Fed.

The bright side is KLSE is having low volume despite the bad news around.

Dj futures is dropping -258 currently. So Dow will reach its important technical support line if DJ open as suggested by the futures. It is key for DJ to hold on this level which if successful will form a triple bottom. But once break, on technical stand of point, not good.

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Added on March 17, 2008, 10:38 amThin volume suggest selling momemtum is not that great aka won't drop severely.

But FKLI open up a discount of whooping 30 points suggest KLCI might drop fruther in the coming week or so.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 17 2008, 10:39 AM

If you adopt this strategy, you will miss the bull afterwards, if/when the bull really come back.
How do you know tomorrow stocks will drop further? what if the stock rise afterwards you sell? <-- no one knows.

Having said that, I suspect bull will be hiding at least for the near term to come as bear is ruling at the moment.

Theorectical, yes, easy to do, practically not.
That's why lot of experienced investors love to have dividend stocks, as the dividend yield will let you to 'sail' through the difficult period like the form of FD interest.
That's why it is important to have some strong fundamental to hold.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 17 2008, 03:56 PM

If one always aims for short term and hope for quick money, 80% of chance you will lose money. Generally, people in stock market gain through long term on good fundamental stock not by trading short term. Holding/stuck with a stock for 3-6 months period is not considered long term. It is hard to earn money in short term unless market is in bull run mood.

There are lot of people including uncles aunties that hold Genting, Pbbank shares for 10+ years until now, which they gain significantly through its dividend as well as capital appreciation.

Yes, for purely excitement, better play virtual game. Hard-earned money should be treated seriously all the time. Occassionally trading short term for some peanut gain is ok, but not involving significant sum (in % wise).

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 17 2008, 05:54 PM

Recession or not recession is just academic, by definition, it needs 2 consecutive quarter of contraction to classify it as recession, by then it was already in recession.

For example, now economy might already in recession but due to the recession definition, you need to wait until 3rd quarter to officially declare it is recession.

It will be resume trading in the afternoon.

Just proposed an acquisition on Sarawak plantation company. No big deal.

But yesterday severe plunge of commodities might weight on some plantation stocks.

DJ again when approaching the 11,700-11,800 mark, it bounds up again, this is the key support level, when reach that level, lot of bargain hunters come in to the market.
S&P is on the around 1270 level.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 18 2008, 09:19 AM

markchan, and fellow forumers,

This is stock market section, please don't treat it as Kopitiam talk. Girls, boys, men, women, old or young make no difference in stock market.

May be later we will see all CWs trade at 0.005.

It is conditional offer, not unconditional offer, bare in mind, there is no certain this deal will go through. So it is the risk involved.
Also, it might be a lengthy process, easily up to 3-6 month and more.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 18 2008, 02:01 PM

Market anticipates as high as one full point aka 1.00% cut.

Remember last time of emergency rate cut of 0.75%? Market shy-rocketing (DJ up for more than 300 points) after news come out. But after few days or week, faded away.
So tonight, US market might take positively about the rate cut, but sustainable or not over the weeks time, don't know liao. It all depend on how US credit crisis play out.

But for sure, it would be long 'process' before the crisis finally settle down. Last year August when subprime issue unfold, market sold-off with valid reason, see how Bear Sterns now. It took about 6-7 month before Bear Sterns issue finally unfold

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 18 2008, 04:03 PM

You should feel glad you didn't buy prior or just after election when it was around 2.00-3.00.

Even the counter limit up twice, it still way far the previous people entering price, people still nursing the loss even it hit limit up. Or even you enter at 1.37, it is still way cheaper than them.

Just like my Genting case, I aim for 6.50, but still hold up my purchase, because I knew even I bought when it surge 20-30 cents to 6.40, I am still buying less than my previous target price, so no hurry. Searching for bottom is pointless, nobody can get it exactly excepy by pure luck, you only can buy the low but not the lowest.

Those GLCs share (especially those goreng political linked one) are dropping more than 50% over the last 2 weeks, so not much people are gaining even though it surge back up or limit up, still only about half the price compared 2-3 weeks ago.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 18 2008, 05:56 PM

This is one of the example why one shouldn't blindly believe what analysts said. They still put a 'buy' call on Bear Sterns prior before it collapsing. Almost identical to the tech bubble. Those believe the 'buy' call has been brought to 'Holland' liao.

No disrespect to the analysts, just analysts are human too, they had no insight of a company sometimes, especialy dealing with finance stock which business inside are complicated and lot of derivaties involved which sometimes people also don't quite sure what it is doing. The one whom had the most insight and accurate information about the company is the company CEO and directors and executive of the company. That's why when market heard CEO or directors are disposing their share, generally share plunge severely, although it is not a must. Recent example would be Gamuda. Although investors not quite sure why its CEO want to dispose its share, people take pre-cautious and wary about stock and also keen to dispose when CEO is dumping its shares.

One should take those analysts call as reference but not blindly believe. Don't get me wrong, I highly respect analysts job and their recommendation as I know nobody can get right on each decision.

Thursday 'tutup kedai' might means people won't be over commit.

Might see some low volume on tomorrow, (another boring day) and Friday if don't have much surprise from the US market (up or down).

Actually, the longer the boring day become, the better the opportunites come out. Normally (not a must), if you flip back the historical data, when those 'boring days' until people not willing to talk or buy time, then it is the time to buy.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 18 2008, 11:20 PM

It was 'goreng' until 'hangus' already, still want to take those 'hangus' food. :lol:Especially those CWs and highly poltically linked stock.
Those 'hangus' food might bad for your health. Haha, just joking.