panasonic88,

<<p/s: i wont simply take profit on PBBANK unless there is a major crash in market,>>

1) Where is the LOGIC in this?? If there is a major crash and you are confident that PBBank can recover plus can continuing pay the dividend, you BUY MORE.

2) You make money when you buy. For a HIGH DIVIDEND stock, you do not have to sell to make money. So, why should you care about current stock price except to buy more?? I only check PBBank's stock price maybe once or twice per year. And, that is when I check to see whether it crashes and I can BUY MORE.

3) Basic rule of investment said that you ONLY SELL when you have a BETTER place to invest your money. If you SELL PBBak, do you have a better place for your money?

Dreamer

smartly,

<<if the purpose of buying this stock is no longer there such as no dividend anymore, profit not intact and management mismanaged, then i think is seriously need to reassess this stock again maybe considering selling it off...>>

Those items has NOTHING to do with current stock price.

Dreamer

---

Added on February 4, 2008, 11:00 pmpanasonic88,

1) I am telling you that if A is a good investment at $10, it should be an EVEN BETTER investment at $8 if the ONLY thing that change is the price.

2) Study had shown that people that watch stock price regularly tend to be a lousy investor. The reason is they get too emotional and attached to the stock.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Feb 4 2008, 11:00 PM

eric.tangps,

When that happens, I will SELL ALL my PBB stocks.

Dreamer

eric.tangps,

I consider all GLCs as untouchable for investment. Too much political risk. I had burnt by UEM and I promised myself to NEVER to be burnt by GLCs.

<<Maybe there should not be GLC at all to ensure a healthy business enviroment.>>

GLCs are fine if they are ran with Singapore GLC's management style and they are not 90+%.

Dreamer

panasonic88,

1) Hindsight is 20/20. I am preparing 2 to 5 years of living expense in cash or equivalent for the coming recession. So, I have the cash ready for quite a while. So, I do not have to sell anything to buy stuff.

<<he said, during 1993 economic crash, he had a neighbour who sold *his apartment and got back a pile of cash in hand
during that time, everything in the stock market were dirt cheap, people are dumping their shares for cash
and this neighbour took the chance and picked up some good counters with the money after he sold his apartment
slowly, after years, market recovered,
the neighbour bought a bungalow out of the money he made from share market>>

2) Think about this. This story is full of holes that does not make sense. Unless the person sold the house way before the recession, the person will either cannot sell or take a huge loss.

<<the neighbour bought a bungalow out of the money he made from share market>>

3) How smart is it to spend that much money on a bungalow?? It is an expense and it will not make money for you.

4) If the counter is good like Public bank, he do not need to sell to begin with??

5) How smart is it to sell a good dividend paying counter like Public bank and spend it on a bungalow that make you no money and cost more to maintain??

Dreamer

SKY 1809,

My model is very simple. For PBBank, I am looking at the price where the dividend yield is good enough before I buy. For example, let's assume that PBBank annual dividend is RM0.80. And, dividend yield of 8% is my target. So, I will buy when the counter is at RM10 or lower. I am NOT aiming for the absolute bottom since no one can time it perfectly.

<<A 50% cash and 50% shares ( including REIT ) could be a better option. >>

We are probably at the different of our life. I will not put less than 5% and more than 20% in any single asset class.

Less than 5% is not worth my effort. More than 20% is too risky.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Feb 21 2008, 10:07 AM

Jordy,

1) One strategy on accumulating the counter that you have strong confident on is to set a limit buy order at 10% to 15% below current price. So, you do not have to watch counter every day. If there is some kind of panic going on, it will hit your buy order.

2) Patient. Things will go BAD after GE. So, why are you in a rush to buy anything?? Do (1) and wait.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Feb 27 2008, 11:53 PM

Jordy,

<<Currently, the bank with the lowest NPL is Maybank if I am not mistaken. They just sold RM1 Billion of NPL a few months ago. That is a very nice recovery strategy.>>

If a bank is managed properly, those NPL will not exist to begin with. And, I think you are mistaken about Maybank has the lowest NPL.

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.js...7b2220-e198c1db
<<Maybank's net non-performing loans (NPL) also improved to 2.69%, compared with 3.67% a year ago.>>

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.js...ebe180-ee5ffa83

<<Teh said the bank's net non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved to 1.2% in FY07 from 1.6% a year earlier, with loan loss coverage standing at 119%, the highest in the local banking industry.>>

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Feb 29 2008, 05:27 AM

All,

IMHO, all counters in KLSE will drop in general after GE. The simple reason is the counters are supported aka window dressing by ASx/EPF and so on. After GE, they no longer have to do that and they will use those fund for something else.

So, it does not matter whatever the GE's result is. It will go down.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Mar 1 2008, 09:37 AM

DJWC,

1) Ask yourself a simple question, why do we have so MANY ASx offering in 2007? Do you count them?

Kinitos,

2) You are ASSUMING that EPF has the money to buy. PBBank do not need that anyhow.

3) Normally, this is done with OIL MONEY from Petronas. Do we have the OIL MONEY to do that?

All,

This is simply my opinion. Our economy is sustained by the two OILS: Palm Oil and Oil. Nothing else is doing well. Past few years, our economy is sustained by domestic consumption.

A) So, is enough people HELP or HURT by the two OILS for the economy to grow??

B) Even if the economy is growing at 5% or 6%, our stock market has GONE UP so much that it CANNOT be sustained by the grow rate of 5% or 6%.

C) Then, why the stock market is going up but the economy is not doing that well?? Who are the buyers?

Dreamer

ravewar,

Why do you buy the stock to begin with?? For PBBank, the main attraction is the dividend that you collect every year. So, you do not have to sell to make money. The only time that I look at price is to buy more.

Dreamer

All,

IMHO, you are asking the WRONG question. In this case, you should ask what is the RIGHT price for you to buy. If the RIGHT price is RM8, you have at least 2 batches of money. You set the first batch at RM8. If it hit, you buy.

Dreamer

Jordy,

I bet to differ. IMHO, there are less than 5 companies in KLSE that is WORTH investing. You can speculate on the rest.

A) 50% of the KLSE is Government or GLC or GLIC owned. So, they are out of question. Aka, too much political risk.

B) How many industries are GUARANTEED to make money?? Only financial and gambling companies.

C) How many of those companies in those 2 industries treat minority share holder fairly by giving out good dividend and no strange inter companies loan, political loan??? As far as I can tell, only one left.

So, besides PBBank, there are may be only a few more that is worth investing. And, they are NOT necessary better than PBBank either.

My definition of investing is you can buy the counter and goes to sleep for 5 years. You do not have to care whether there is a recession or so on.

Dreamer

P.S.: It is against my interest to offer this advice. I want as many peope to panic and drive the price down so that I can buy more. I am not selling my stock for any price at this moment.

Jordy,

If a person has less than $1K in cash, the person SHOULD NOT invest on anything. At the minimum, a person should have 3 to 6 months of expenses in savings before they can talk about investing.

And, if a person has less than 1K to invest, any individual stock is a bad answer anyhow. Unit trust make more sense.

Dreamer

ahpoh,

So, if we hit recession and have a bear market for 2 years, what are you going to live on? You WILL be forced to sell your share at a loss.

<<so if depend on the person risk portfolio.>>

You can ONLY afford to take risk if you have emergency fund.

Dreamer

Jordy,

1) I thought the Dividend yield is 7.5%.

2007 total Dividend is RM0.75 and assuming that you buy PBBank at RM10

2) The actual dividend yield is dependent on your buying price. I bought at RM7 so my dividend yield is more than 10%

Dreamer

cherroy,

Actually merger is messy and disruptive to operation. So, a merger of Maybank and CIMB will give PBBank less competition for at least 1 to 2 years due to disruption to Maybank/CIMB operation.

Any suggestion as to what is a good price to accumulate PBBank?? Looks like it will take a recession to drop the price.

Dreamer

klmc,

NPL -> Non-performing loan aka bad loan. You SHOULD avoid all banks except PBBank. Raising BLR will force people in the marginal financial stage into deep shit.

Dreamer

Jordy,

Your yield is based on your purchase price. I bought at less than RM7.00. So, my yield is GREATER than 10%.

Dreamer

dripinrain,

Let's assume that PBBank has NO GROWTH, so what?? You buy at RM10. You collect RM0.80 every year. You get 8% return every year. Is that so bad?? It is double the 3.7% that you get from FD.

So, what if PBBank drop to RM5?? You still collect RM0.80 every year. In fact, you should buy more because now the yield is 16%. And, we are still talking about NO GROWTH. Any growth is gravy on top of that.

You make money when you buy.

For GOOD dividend paying stock, you do not need to sell in order to make money. In fact, in most cases, you do not even check the stock price for a few years except perhaps to buy more.

Dreamer