I read that plantation counters will continue to shine in year 2008

so I was thinking to buy one or two to keep

I can think of a few, eg. Batu Kawan, IOICorp, Boustead, Kulim, Kwantas, SOP, THPlant, Unico etc.

currently I am interested in Batu Kawan & IOICORP, but their price is already high..

What do you guys think?

2291. Asiatic will be a growth stock for plantation. It's owned by Genting group.

hsplant?

Well, if you're looking for cheaper ones, MVEST 1902 should be a keeper, its RM0.79 now, looking at the current trend where crude oil price is not getting cheaper nowadays, plantation (palm oil) counters are doing really well.

But beware though, some said that crude oil prices is already at the peak now, so if you're hoping that the price of crude oil keeps on hiking, you have to becareful then.

tanamas, and of coz KLK

I m eyeing only one 3 counters.

IOI, KLK, Asiatic.
but seems like the best divident pay out is by IOI which is my first choice.

IOICORP should be quite steady....Div, Share Split & Cap Repayment.... n BKAWAN as well.

For my personal preference, IOI & KLK would my top pick. But sadly, current share price are little bit expensive.

Buying Batu Kawan = owning KLK as KLK major shareholder is Batu Kawan, if not mistaken BKawan holds more than 40% of stake in KLK. I might be wrong, long time not updated already since after sold off the BKawan. (Sold a bit too early also, otherwise gain more than 30% now). Bought Rm6.50 (before bonus) sold at Rm9.00.

u wont know wat will happen
now 11.xx

This post has been edited by feralee: Dec 28 2007, 04:58 PM

In stock market is always the case, when you sold a counter, it went extremly high after that, you regret but when it turn south you feel relief and lucky is able to let go at a good price. It happen many time to me, i sold my BURSA at RM7.00, PBBANK-F at RM7.00 TANJONG at RM11.50 and MAYBULK at RM3.50...looks what's the current price now compare to my exit price....

No one can maximise the profit/gain or no one can sell at the highest or buy at the lowest. Don't need to search for the highest or lowest, it is wasting time, as long as my portfolio achieved satisfying result of gain, then no regret already.
I think it is should be the way to treat it. If everytime want to regret after sold (the stock goes higher after that) then you will be regretting all the way in your life.

me oso mah...

sold my GAMUDA-CD at 0.035 (two weeks before reaching the maturity date), see today's closing price

just tell our ownself, dun look back, that's it.

Yup, don't look back, look forwards. Only look back what mistake have been done and learned from it then move forwards, there is no point of regretting.

did they write y it will shine?

IMHO, d palm oil price is too expensive d.. although there is huge increase in export to china but AFAIK, d price they buy are below market price..

i belief d real 1 benefit from this is company that r dealin in our country.. i might b wrong though

Well, the high price will be realised in Feb08.
Right now they still buying at around RM2600-2800 cos thats the CPO future price for DEC07 lastime.

HSPlant recent quaterly report looks promising, they reported RM0.29 profit fo every RM1 share. However the share have appreciated about 10% since report was out. If they can maintain their profit for next quater above RM0.20, i am going to invest in this counter.

Can also consider their parent company Hap Seng, besides having shares in HSPLANT, Hap Seng is also distributor for MB. With the new MB C Class out, Hap Seng income should be good and in addition to getting income (dividen payment) from HSPlant.

and Hap Seng just gave a 46 sens special interim in early December 07

but the price re-adjusted a lot after the dividends, from 3.2X drop to 2.5X

That's why don't buy for the sake of getting dividend, mostly you ended a loss in short term after the ex.
Only you hold long term for getting dividend will gain as normally when special high dividend is announced, share price will pop up and surge. If one only buys after the news of dividend come out means you are buying at higher price already.

As prior before ex, a lot of people are chasing it because of the dividend which makes the share price going up. After the ex, people losing interest already, so not many buyer around, some selling activities can easily push down the price already. But if the company continue to give generous dividend then share price will rise up again in the future but it takes time.

But having said that, this kind of special dividend is not repeatable. Those repeatable and consistently dividend can only through company business operation profit.
So whenever assessing the dividend history of the company, watch closely on the EPS and dividend. If the dividend is come from EPS, you know this dividend is repeatable and can be cosistent if future EPS prospect looks good.

hw about SIME???

Some tips and tricks to buying plantation counters...

1. FCPO pricing
Look at the FCPO prices currently its hovering at about RM 3,100 per tonne which is a plantation owners wet dream.
Price has risen comparing the pass 2 weeks figures from around Rm 2,900 per tonne to Rm 3,100 , momentum is expected to run out but for the time being the wet dream continues.

2. Plantation Yield Factor and Profitability...
a) Some plantations have massive land banks i.e. Synergy Drive , unfortunately for them for a Palm tree to reach maximum profitability it will take from nursery to planting to prime at least 10 years before a Palm see its full potential.

b) Caveat - Palms which have reached their maxiumum yield and is on the verge of replanting the cost will be high, which will affect the bottom line.

c) New and upcoming plantations, high cost, unplanted palms, uncertain-profits and debt riddle in the long run?

d) Existing plantation is more to yield factor.

3. Weather - Flood in Johor (long term effect?)

4. World oil prices - signal ? Higher oil prices means higher demand for CPO

Take your time to digest some or all of this information and you will see some potential Plantation stocks emerge, which have been over-looked at the same time undervalued by the market.

plantation counters that moving drastically on today (4/1/07)

feel that too much attention given to the plantation counters...if it goes up like this when CPO prices go up, imagine whhat would happen to our index when it goes the other way!

the price increase like mad!

Worth keeping Plantation stock for longterm i think. CPO price go beyond USD100 per barrel, i think palm oil price will follow through, oil price will definitely keep going up.

easier for you guys to refer

List of plantation counters (main board): http://biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch/main.asp?clp=12

i got no plantation counter, but i'm eyeing Asiatic!!!

currently i have HSPLANT.
ASIATIC eyeing since the price of RM7.XX, i was waiting it's price to drop RM6.XX then onli keep this stock...looks like now already too high to keep.

cam i know hap seng holds how many % share in hsplant??

Hap Seng Consolidated Berhad listed its Plantation Division as Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Berhad on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia in its Initial Public Offering on 16 November 2007. As at listing day, Hap Seng Consolidated Berhad retains 50.84% ownership of Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Berhad.
Hap Seng Plantations' activities are located mainly in the Lahad Datu region in Sabah and consist of three Groups of Oil Palm Estates, namely Hap Seng Plantations (River Estates) Sdn Bhd, which comprises the Tomanggong Group of Estates and the Sungai Segama Group of Estates, as well as Jeroco Plantations Sdn Bhd and Hap Seng Plantations (Ladang Kawa) Sdn Bhd.

i manage to buy Asiatic @ RM9.1

U plan to keep long term or short term? May i know ur target selling price?

i don't know what is the target price but,

Crude palm oil prices (CPO) have continued to strengthen in recent days, tracking higher crude oil prices. The crude oil market shows no sign of retreating despite closing near the US$100 per barrel mark. And with soyoil prices also trading at record levels, on expectations of tight global supplies, the CPO market appears likely to stay robust in the near to medium term.

Asiatic Development sells most of its output in the spot market and so should see almost immediate benefit from prevailing high prices. The stock is also trading below valuations on peer IOI Corp and KL Kepong, at roughly 18.8 times our estimated earnings for 2008.

We are estimating net profit to expand by 13% y-y to RM370.9 million or 49.2 sen per share - on the back of higher FFB production and selling prices. Our forecast assumes CPO prices to average at RM2,600 for the year. Should prices sustain at current high levels, the shares will look even cheaper.

Asiatic has a relatively young oil palm plantation landbank totalling 65,530 hectares. Mature trees account for almost nine-tenths of total planted area, about 47% of which are in their prime ages of 7-15 years. The company is in the midst of acquiring some 98,300ha of land in Indonesia.

Upon completion, its total plantation landbank will rise to nearly 164,000ha. That would place it at par with its bigger peers. Planting has commenced and will be completed in stages over the next few years. The venture will underpin growth over the next decade.

Noted this from STAR paper. Share price already appreciate more than 30% since past 3 mths. Will let ur know when i have the conplete fundamental study.

Having the highest PE ratio ranging from 32 to 18

TRADEWINDS PLANTATION BERHAD

IJM PLANTATIONS BERHAD

KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BERHAD

ASIATIC DEVELOPMENT BERHAD

UNITED PLANTATIONS BERHAD

UNITED MALACCA BERHAD

This post has been edited by Kinitos: Jan 8 2008, 11:10 PM

Now isnt the best time to buy any plantation counters...
I eye Asiatic at RM7 but even at that price, I already feel its too expensive, let alone at RM9++.

If you want to buy, I think Kulim will gain significantly these few days... I saw in the papers today that Kulim seem to have PE lower than 10x even with RM9 price tag.

icic..thanks

do u own this stock??

how about the ceo of hap seng group?? (wat is the name??)
can be trust??like PBB teh hong piw
agrresive??like topglove'ceo??

looking among the plantation stock....ioi is more agresive..but the price is damn high(i know some one will said expensive or not is not depend on price,depends to value, but erm....price really high la )


do u have researvh on hap seng??
how u think hap seng after split the hsplant??i know after split the eps will reduce.....

any new plan for hap seng???

Asiatic will benefit most from the current high CPO price, cause from what i read, asiatic is the only ibg plantation company that does not sell ahead(futures), they sell on current market price.


yes, in fact before it shot up to more >RM12, the value of KLK shares itself in bkawan is already more than the value of bkawan shares according to the edge which wrote about bkawan weeks back.

just read about another small time plantation, chinteck, from thestar online newspaper. anyone has done homework on this counter?

err, aren't you guys worried about going into plantation counters now? especially with looming recession and reduction in commodity prices?

feels like the CPO theme has been played up way too much...

i got 2 lots of HSPANT from IPO.
Not too sure whether on the management team, but i know the newly release financial result is good EPS 29.4(sen) per RM1.00; which is good. i'll hold on this stock..

hapseng detail can refer to below link.
http://www.hapseng.com.my/

just going with the flow brather.. , but you're right, just a matter of time before the prices come down, but for nw anybody with plantation stocks should be brimming away..

crude oil price dropped to US$89.70 per barrel

can pay attention on BSTEAD if price is coming down to 6.00 and below

PPB is the king
(uncle khok's son)

I've taken a recent interest in plantation stocks like IOIcorp, Asiatic etc. The CPO prices have proven it can hold it's own after a while and price of crude oil aren't going to drop anytime soon. This will mean, at least for me that the plantations stocks that has high yield will make a killing in 1st 2 quarters of 2008. What do you guys think

Plantation stocks are a bit risky now, as many were expecting the CPO price for this year to stabilise around RM2,500, which is quite far down from where it is now.
If this does happen, we should see some selldown on plantation counters. I would opt to wait and see on this, since I believe the CPO price was mainly speculated by hedge funds at the moment.

CPO might able to hold at Rm3k above for near term, but over long term, jury still out there. Most big players in the market like IOI & KLK are forecasting at 2.8k level only. They also see current CPO price is high.

Economy cycle is like that when a product is having high profit margin then lot of people will start to look on it and invest on it. Although near term, it won't have an effect as supply need time to built up but after several years (Plam oil tree needs time to grow same as crude oil, you need time to build up oil rig), the more supply will neturalise the high price. An industry won't have too high profit margin for too long time (2-5 years period may be but not more than 5 years), as more and more players will come to 'join' into it if it is very profitable which eventually push down the profit margin.

Just like crude oil, one of the reason (besides increase demand from China) it shoot so high is because of too curde price back 2000-2001 whereby oil price traded at teen number only as low as USD 15 (can't remember correct the exact figure and years, around that). At that time, crude is so cheap that prompt to oil producing countries ro reduce supply and nobody want to build oil rig or start oil exploration project. But after several years, when economy recover and growing, demand pick up pace is so fast that there is no extra supply to meet up those demand. As due to low price of crude years ago, less people start new oil field so supply scrumbble to meet up demand.

Plantation stocks do trade at high valuation right now. May be buy on dip, otherwise currently it seems their valuation is a bit rich.

I might be wrong, just my view.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 1 2008, 09:54 AM

2nd OPINION

The way I see it.

I am surprised to read People are talking and seeing Plantations as Oil Palm and Oil Palm as Plantations. Price of palm oil is main topic discussed here.


I do agree the prices of plantation shares are quite high.

There are many potentials or hidden values of plantations not discussed here such as :-

> People see land only as what is on the surface, that is all. What are the potentials of land are also important ( such as converting to commercial lands. ). Where are their locations ?

i.e IOI PROP/UEP / Bandar Utama/PJ build houses originated from plantation lands.

> Companies such as Asiatic/Sime etc are also property developers closed to JB and Iskandar Project. Commercial properties have more values than land itself. For example. Mid Valley and Pavilion. If let say, they want to build a mini Disneyland on the land, then the impact will be greater and price of shares shoot up.

> See how the accountants keeping their accounts for these companies, you will very be surprised. They do not see the needs to revalue the lands., let say book values at RM 30,000 per acre, ok kah next to JB ? Accounting practice says they have to value at low agriculture land price even zoned for commercial use, unless conversion and revaluation is done

> Do they have cash piles ? Any borrowings ( esp old plantations ). D/E ratio of 0.1 ? Some of them are cash kings.

> Will they collapse if share market slumps. IOI is the one to recover first when market recovers ( yardstick)

> China/India markets. Do they stop using palm oil tomorrow. More consumer spending power expected.

> any oil mills in China or India

> Bio fuel potential ? Vitamins etc.

> in time like this, one of the best place for fund managers to park their money is here.

> If you discuss what is in the financial reports, you will tend to think like an accountant .

> I see plantations as 5 in one shampoo for the hidden values. How to unEarth their hidden values are more important beside the price of palm oil. It is truly worth the effort.

> See them as Golden Gooses rather only the price of eggs they produce.

Sorry to flame you, mate.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 2 2008, 10:53 AM

So i suggust those people/investers interest in plantation share, better study & research the company profile such as plantation properties, where their land/fields palm oil & rubber. Don't be surprise, their share price will shoot up after some announcement by government on development.
I'm eyeing plantation counters that has estates tht will be develop by gov later...Success example..putrajaya, cyberjaya-land own by IOI early i think and early last year in kuantan own by AASIA.

No doubt about those hidden value, and under-valuation land banks they have especially for the like KLK (some their land banks valuation are still based on old valuation which has increased tremendously over the years).

But still personally think that the potential hidden value should treat it as bonuses. What matter most is their daily operation businesses that generate steady profit and cashflow to the company and its shareholders. Anyway, just my view on the priority side of the various factors to consider when look into the company stocks. Yes, I fully agree there are some hidden value on it (on those land banks).

There are plenty of plantation company has venture into large landbanks in Indonesia currently as Peninsular landbanks become more and more expensive.

A Value Investing Investor would consider the hidden values ( Value Investing Approach used by Buffet ), using this approach, he rates Asiatic at RM 1.50 as good buy and could have bought it years ago . He may see Potentials for palm oil price to go up too because big markets like China and India.

If you wait for hidden values to surface , then you may buy RM 6.00 for Asiatic, is also a good buy. I am sure people buy Pbank not because the interest rates are good throughout the years. In fact, Public Bank interest rates are the most competitive ones. The hidden values also play apart. One thing I respect Public Bank most is their ability to lend to "China man" without proper or complete documents, and yet their NPL is the lowest. They make efforts to know their customers' backgrounds, whereas other banks do not. I call this a hidden value. Some say this is an extra bonus.

In order for Singapore to successfully build their casinos, they need one important thing called "SAND" , which is hidden beneath Malaysian Plantations, waiting to be explored.

Just Different schools of thoughts. It is not wrong and not right method. I am also learning good things from you all.

The reason why i brought it out cos earlier discussions centered on Oil Price issue. Investors would see more values if they want to consider other factors as well. You may see these as extra bonus but I see them as " under valued" investments.

And let say by mistake, you bought these " undervalued " stocks, you still have a good chance to recover your losses in future, they would not disappear like some of the second board companies.

Once again, investors here want to invest in long term but taking a short term view.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 4 2008, 05:49 PM

Anyone buying plantation counters recently??

me! waiting for a right timing

try ioicorp, maybe can hit n run...if can't then keep for longterm also won't hurt much...CPO is so high now..somemore this year is plantation stock play...

Strong performance by smaller palm oil firms

PETALING JAYA: Shares in smaller sized palm oil firms soared yesterday led by Glenealy Plantations (M) Bhd and Chin Teck Plantations Bhd, as both companies reported strong profit growth on the back of rising crude palm oil (CPO) prices.

While these companies are deemed less attractive to large investors when compared with bigger planters like IOI Corp Bhd or Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd due to the lack of trading liquidity, their low price-to-earnings (PE) multiples and above average dividend yields make them good defensive buys, especially at times of stock market volatility.

"These companies are equally well managed and their earnings outlook are equally promising,'' a local fund manager said.

Glenealy reported a net profit of RM49.2mil, or 37.6 sen per share, on revenue of RM62.9mil. This includes a one-time gain of RM21.6mil.

Miri-based planter Glenealy told Bursa Malaysia that the company achieved an average selling price of RM2,845 per tonne during the three months ended Dec 31, against RM2,574 per tonne achieved in the preceding quarter.

The average price secured during the period mirrored the benchmark CPO futures contract performance on Bursa Derivatives.

With the CPO futures traded consistently above RM3,000 per tonne levels since the start of the year, it is likely that plantation companies would continue to enjoy strong earnings growth going forward.

The benchmark third month futures contract was up RM113 to RM3,345 per tonne yesterday.

Shares in Glenealy rose 44 sen, or 9.8%, to close at RM4.94, which values the company at 7.2 times its historical earnings based on the trailing 12-month earnings per share (EPS) of 68.1 sen.

Assuming that Glenealy would be able to meet market forecast of 90.1 sen per share for year ending June 30, 2008 (FY08), its market valuation is even more attractive at these levels.

It is worth to note that yesterday's most actively traded stock IOI Corp was valued at 25 times its projected earnings.

Meanwhile, Glenealy's share price jump also provided some support to its parent company Lingui Development Bhd, which owns a 36% stake in the company.

The timber firm's net profit was down 57% to RM32.6mil, or 4.94 sen per share, during the quarter ended Dec 31, 2007 due to the drop in prices for plywood and veneer.

Lingui share price was up 3 sen to RM1.48. It hit a two-year low of RM1.41 on Jan 22.

Chin Teck climbed 40 sen, or 5.4%, to RM7.85 with 84,600 shares traded.

Like Glenealy, Chin Teck posted a sharp increase in net profit, up 152% to RM19.4mil, or 21.27 sen per share, in the first quarter ended Nov 30 against RM7.68mil made a year earlier.

Chin Teck had proposed an interim gross dividend of 25 sen per share for the first quarter, versus 15 sen per share in the previous corresponding period.

URL: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...80&sec=business

The CPO price is record high 3450/tonne.

---

Added on February 5, 2008, 11:37 am2008 will be plantation year i believe

---

Added on February 5, 2008, 1:38 pmWah IOI is in Pre-CNY rally.
This year choi san yeh come early.......

---

Added on February 7, 2008, 9:17 pmCPO will continue to sustain at high price, as demand is more than supply.

All the way IOI, KLK. Rat and Palm Oil are in pairs.

This post has been edited by chinkw1: Feb 7 2008, 09:17 PM

Tradewind Plantations 9x 08 estimate earnings ( warning umno counter )

Asiatic 15x 08 estimate earnings

ioi - trading buy only

Judge your own.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 11 2008, 11:30 AM

Hi, sorry for my lack of knowledge in symbols, can you kindly elaborate "Asiatic 15x 08 estimate earnings", what does 15x 08 means please?

PE = PRICE/EARNING per share

PE 15x = Price [rm8.30] /Earnings of 2008 [rm0.55 ]

Let say Price of share is RM 8.30 , you are paying 15 times of 2008 estimated earnings. ( RM 0.55 ).

The higher the PE the more expensive is the valuation.

For rough guide, applicable to Malaysia , PE of 15X is considered as the fair benchmark ( not cheap and not expensive ).

Higher PE of let say 30x would prompt profit taking. PE of below 10x is considered a good buy. Other factors also needed to be considered such as good management etc.

Because different companies have different paid up capital and share prices , so PE is quite a useful tool to compare their valuations. Not an absolute measurement. Current trend is to take future earnings such as 08 or 09 ( buying forward or future performance )

Earning = earning per share [ EPS ]

For example, KLK traded at RM 18 at PE of 15x 08 is still considered not expensive.

"Stock A " traded at RM 2.00 at PE of 30x 08 is considered very expensive.

If you have KLK and Stock A, the decision is to sell Stock A and keep KLK.

Another example :-

klk at rm 18 PE 15x 08
Asiatic at rm 8.30 PE 15x 08

Although price wise, there is a huge different, but from the PE point of view, they are of the same valuation.

So Tradewind Plant at RM 3.80 for PE 9x 08 actually is a good buy ( undervalued stock } , however it is connected to umno ( avoided by some people }.

At PE of 15x 08 it should worth RM 6.30



Just an additional investment tool for you to make better decision, not right and not wrong method.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 12 2008, 09:30 AM

Asiatic PE15x based on estimated earnings of 2008. So "Asiatic 15x 08" is just a short way of saying it.

Hi Sky, Thanks for your kind explanation, i learn more detail about PE now, TQTQTQ bro.

>> PBB really do so? They lend without proper or complete documents? Then i think it's more like a risk for investor. Even they study their background, some maybe able to hide from management. Who knows? Human mistake can happen..



>>Malaysia banned the export of sand in 1997, and since then, all of Singapore's sand supply has been coming from Indonesia.
http://www.aggregateresearch.com/caf/flyas...le.asp?id=10439

Well, you didnt do any homework do you?

It was reported widely in Malaysia papers long ago when PM canceled 2nd Bridge . He did admit Malaysia is supplying sand to Singapore ( though small volume ). Sand price is high even in Malaysia, though not as high as oil or gold.

Singapore has to think of a way to get sand, not me. Policies can be changed and not fixed forever. Real Property Gain Tax is a good example. Why Singapore is giving out projects to Malaysian companies ? Think about it.

Pbank has the lowest NPL for many many years, even better than the foreign banks.

Good or bad . Form your own opinion.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 12 2008, 11:52 AM

I dont think it's good to speculate government policies changes. Government policy hardly changes overtime. Else it'd like slapping your own face.

Unfortunately, i can't get the news report you mentioned.




http://www.pmo.gov.my/WebNotesApp/tpmmain....06?OpenDocument
Tarikh / Date. : 04-05-2006
Oleh / By : DATO' SRI MOHD NAJIB TUN ABD RAZAK

I know Pbbank has the lowest NPL, but risk is uncertainty. I thought any bank would request full information required before procedding the decision to loan or not. Having incomplete information would lead to bad decision. This is a fact. We can't judge by lowest NPL, past performance doesn't reflect future.

If you do not get the news, it does not mean people are wrong.

Call up Star Papers or NST to reconfirm . " Sand Export Ban in Year 1997 " and "The Government, since 2000 until now, has not changed its decision not to export sand to Singapore. It means there was sand supplied from Year 1998 to year 1999. Otherwise , the two reports given by you should say the same thing. A ban is in fact not a ban.

As I say earlier, sand could be a hidden value of Plantation Stocks, does not mean it would sell like gold or oil. No one would cut down the trees just to get the sand at this moment. I highlight " hidden values" everywhere. I did not suggest to people to buy plantations stocks MERELY for the SAND factor.


It is bcos of changes in Government policies, KLSE hits 1300pts.

I never suggest Malaysia to sell sand to Singapore, merely saying sand is of good demand now and the future.

You are making up your own conclusions whenever people say something, i think you are a lawyer, not investor.

I did say judge your own. I would not reply any of your question from now on. It is wasting of my time.

I declare you as the winner.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 12 2008, 02:18 PM

2008 will probably be Plantation and O&G year.

This post has been edited by chinkw1: Feb 12 2008, 12:38 PM

I agree with you.

KLK announced today they are going to release their quarterly report on the 20th Feb. Coinciding with BKAWAN dividend ex-date. I wonder why the coincidence.

Hi sky,

for 2008, what is the PE for

1. IOI current price 7.90
2. KLK current price 18.70

Pls help.

Broker estimates :-

EPS

IOI - 42.30SEN FY 08
KLK - 130.30SEN FY 08

JUST TAKE THE MARKET PRICE AND DIVIDED BY EPS

YOU GET PE

IOI - 18.67X FY 08 ( NEED TO CONVERT EPS TO RM PER SHARE )
KLK- 14.3 X FY 08

KLK t/p ; RM 22
IOI t/p : RM 8.45

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 13 2008, 11:47 AM

TQ sky. t/p means target price??

so IOI logically by year end 2008 will reach 8.45 ?

How you get the t/p leh?

Sorry for asking so many question......

From my stock broker

http://www.kenwealth.com/bin/home.asp

Plantations >>>> Golden Opportunity .= ( Research papers )

TQ sky, thank you very much for your kind info.

DJ MARKET TALK: OSK Keeps Malaysia Plantations At Overweight

14/02/2008 03:32:00 AM



0332 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: OSK Research keeps Malaysia plantation sector at Overweight despite data showing record high palm oil inventory of 1.88 million tons at end-January; analyst Alvin Tai says high inventory likely temporary as exports to recover in coming months as weather in northern hemisphere warms up (palm oil solidifies at low temperatures). Says still too early to say crude palm oil prices, which averaged MYR3,225/ton in January, have peaked; "we remain positive on the sector as we believe the market has not fully discounted the potential supply shortfall in the year ahead, mainly from Indonesia's drought-impacted production yield." Maintains Buy calls on IOI Corp (1961.KU), Asiatic (2291.KU), Kulim (2003.KU), IJM Plantations (2216.KU). (BEL)

Hi sky,

Do u keep any plantation counters in your pocket now?

Get Unico Plantation is damn cheap.Check the financial statement. They starts planting in 04 as as todate is 4 years already. The price should go up next few years. BE for plantation is 7-8 years unless the Estate manager and the CEO is doing some side income for them self. All this while plantation share are very stable adn they pay good dividen. I will go for Golden Hope or H&L. Most plantations companies make losses cos they venture in other business like hotel, selling car, make highway and bla bla bla. Look at the trend for plantation shares for the last 10 years all go up only unless the CEO is doing something funny.

Yes, I do. But not KLK or IOI .

My one, Not a popular one. Just bought bcos of FY 08 EPS 40sen with PE of 8x. Intend to sell at PE of 15x FY08.


Profit taking on Asiatic sometime back bcos of Sub Prime Issue.


There are more than 2 Research Houses overweight Plantation Section, as you say Year of Plantations. I believe some
foreign funds might come to buy like KLK , after the election ( just speculating ) hahaha.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 14 2008, 02:57 PM

My friend at RM2,500 the plantation companies still makes profit RM350 per ton of FFB. Take a drive on the north south highway what u see at the right and left of the highway. Those idiot won't be planting oil palm if is not making any money. Just for your info George soros is planting Oil Palm in Acheh and the Korean are going to Africa to set up plantation. I expect in the next 5 years from now the profit for the plantation will be lower cos to many people are planting it now. The theory is what goes up must come down.

5 Years , so long lah ! Pana and gang probably earn a few rounds .

If palm oil is so cheap, just use for your car also no problem, do not need to use imported oil. Malaysia spends 35 Billions to sub petrol and diesel.

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Added on February 14, 2008, 2:39 pmMARKET TALK: IOI Corp May Rise On In-Line 2Q Profit

14/02/2008 05:37:00 AM



0537 GMT IOI Corp (1961.KU) likely rise on expectations of stronger 2H earnings; this after company reports in-line 2Q net profit: +52% on-year to MYR581.2 million; company cites higher palm oil prices as reason for earnings growth, expects stronger 2H earnings from plantations on rally in palm oil prices. "The stock will likely rise given the stronger results and expectations of stronger earnings in 2H," says dealer; "interest may also be supported by 7-sen gross interim dividend," which same as last year. Stock +0.6% at MYR8.00 in active trade midday; resistance at MYR8.25 (Jan. 17's peak). (ECH)

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 14 2008, 02:48 PM

Hi sky, do you also keep some ioi or klk in your pocket?

Seems like we have quite a number of plantation lovers here......

MARKET TALK: OSK Keeps IOI Corp At Buy; Target MYR8.80

15/02/2008 03:29:00 AM



0329 GMT STOCK CALL: OSK Research maintains Buy recommendation on IOI Corp. (1961.KU), with target price of MYR8.80; analyst Alvin Tai says 1H FY08 results reported yesterday, excluding gains from forex translation, asset disposal, within expectations; maintaining core earnings forecasts (MYR1.85 billion for FY08, MYR2.04 billion FY09). "We continue to recommend IOI Corp as a core plantation holding, though we recognize that in the near term IOI is not too far away from our target price and should be more of a trading position." Shares last down 3.1% at MYR7.90.(BEL)

He does not keep IOI or KLK

You mean plantations only represented by 2 counters only ? cannot buy less popular counter, man ?

I bought bcos of low PEs , not bcos the stocks are more popular. There are other stocks that below RM 4 with PE of 10x.

Indirectly. i still have KLK , IOI and Sime , remember I have investments in unit trusts in PM ?

I tought you odeli disappear when mkt was bad ? Anyway, big welcome you back.

Remember, you are the one who invite me to talk in this forum, not the one in Public Mutual as you are the big brother there !

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 15 2008, 01:11 PM

Hey SKY, thank you for your warm welcome back
I am not saying that you need to have IOI or KLK, but I was just quoting you to answer chinkw1.
Of course I know there are many other counters out there.
I have not disappeared, but rather just leaving my counters there.
I have been active in the main finance forum though, but not really in the stock market sub forum.
I'm a small brother dude, you can ask chinkw1 if you don't believe

We are all investors who r willing to share ideas and knowlegde for win-win perusal.
hope 2008 will be good for equity and unit trust.

also, hope USA impact on us are kept to minimal

I read the research papers from broker that :-

They have a chart or analysis saying that there is a low correlation between Dow and Palm Oil Crude Prices bcos the big consumers are in Asia.

However, Asia's consumption might be affected if there are recessions in their own countries.

I see what Fed said is good bcos you cannot expect Dow to keep going up though there is still possibility of US recession . It is a wake up call.

If Dow is up 300+ a day , i got more worry.

More brokers like TA , OSK etc are calling a buy on Plantation Stocks.

Just share what I read. and Judge your own.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 15 2008, 02:16 PM

let's have for atleast one plantation counter in our portfolio

Could it be because there is nothing much to buy in the market at the current situation with such sentiment?

Plantation stocks are always consider defensive-similar with less exposure to any big drop in DJ, aren't there? After all US doesn't like palm oil and pitching soya oil, aren't they?

Anyway, plantation stocks are exciting play of KLSE. Unfortunately many of them are very far away from my budget and can't afford it.

I am forced to sell my TWS Plant though it is a good stock ( bad bcos of political connection ). It turns around in 07 and heading towards better 08.

Eyeing on Hap Seng Plant this time.

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Added on February 15, 2008, 3:43 pmQUOTE(cherroy @ Feb 15 2008, 04:07 PM)
Today I came across an article said, CPO might be under some bubble state already (beginning state). Fundamentally, it doesn't match the bullishness of FCPO. Stockpiles of Palm oil now is in historical high, export stagnant and drop slightly (based on lastest month of data), so the bullishness actually come from speculative buying as well as low soy bean supply in US. As in US, a lot of soy bean farm has been switched to corn due to ethanol for bio-diesel.

I don't know how true this article is.
So assess on your own.
*

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You are right . Crude Palm Oil Stock is record high in November 07 with 1.8m MT.

The crude palm oil price refuses to drop. By right It should.

Just bcos Soya Bean price refuses to come down. Crude Oil factor. .....

Sell into strength should be good too.

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Added on February 15, 2008, 8:35 pm15-02-2008: Malaysian palm futures at record on soyoil, demand

Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 2.7% to hit a new high on Feb 15, driven by surging exports and record high soybean oil prices, dealers said.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose as much as RM93 to hit a fresh record of RM3,544 ($1,097) a tonne. -- Reuters

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Added on February 15, 2008, 10:20 pm0332 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: OSK Research keeps Malaysia plantation sector at Overweight despite data showing record high palm oil inventory of 1.88 million tons at end-January; analyst Alvin Tai says high inventory likely temporary as exports to recover in coming months as weather in northern hemisphere warms up (palm oil solidifies at low temperatures). Says still too early to say crude palm oil prices, which averaged MYR3,225/ton in January, have peaked; "we remain positive on the sector as we believe the market has not fully discounted the potential supply shortfall in the year ahead, mainly from Indonesia's drought-impacted production yield." Maintains Buy calls on IOI Corp (1961.KU), Asiatic (2291.KU), Kulim (2003.KU), IJM Plantations (2216.KU). (BEL)

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Added on February 16, 2008, 10:11 am5-02-2008: OSK Research overweight on plantation sector

Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com

OSK Investment Research remains positive on the plantation sector as it believes the market has not fully discounted the potential supply shortfall in the year ahead, mainly from Indonesia's drought impacted production yield.

It remains overweight on the sector and continues to think plantation stocks are at comfortable valuation levels, despite its conservative crude palm oil (CPO) price assumption.

"Key buy ideas are IOI Corp (target price: RM8.80), Asiatic (RM9.50), Kulim (RM12.60) and IJM Plantations (RM4.60)," it said. Investors seeking exposure to Indonesian plantations could look at Golden Agri Resources (buy, target price: S$2.63 or RM6) listed on Singapore Exchange.

Malaysia's palm oil inventory hit record high in January on seasonally slow exports, aggravated by snowstorm in China and earlier concerns of EU's biodiesel policy change.

OSK Research said palm oil inventory was 1.88 million tonnes, a new record compared to the previous highest level of 1.81 million tonnes in November.

"At this point in time, we do not think the high inventory level could be sustained as exports are likely to recover significantly after a very slow January," it said.

The research house also said it did not see the high palm oil inventory as a cause for concern as exports would recover as northern hemisphere's weather gets warmer.

It expected CPO prices to likely remain firm on anticipation of tighter supply demand situation ahead.

Exports fell by 24% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 1.037 million tonnes as exports to China and EU slowed northern hemisphere winter reached its tail end. Exports to China fell by 21.7% month-on-month possibly due to January snowstorm.

The research house believed buyers might have held back purchases in hopes of securing lower prices as there were concerns the EU would ban palm-based biodesel.

"As these were temporary factors which are now behind us, we believe imports will start to recover in the next one to two months particularly as the weather gets warmer, which encourages the use of more palm oil in cooking oil blend," it said.

CPO prices averaged RM3,225 per tonne in January based on Malaysian Palm Oil Board prices compared to RM2,960 per tonne in December.

"As average price was RM265 per tonne higher m-o-m, we could not rule out the possibility higher prices may have affected January exports," it said, adding there were several other dominant factors involved and it was too early to forecast CPO prices had reached its ceiling.

OSK Research said the anticipated supply shortage ahead would be the main price driver for CPO rather than demand factors. It maintained its conservative average CPO price assumption at RM2,750 per tonne.

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Added on February 18, 2008, 4:11 pmDJ MARKET TALK: ASEAM Keeps Sell On IOI Corp; Ups Tgt MYR6.30

18/02/2008 07:46:00 AM



0746 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ASEAMBANKERS keeps Sell call on IOI Corp (1961.KU) with higher target price of MYR6.30 from MYR6.10 earlier; says 2Q08 net profit of MYR581 million within consensus estimates but is concerned earnings could peak this year. "We believe the current high CPO price of above MYR3000/ton is not sustainable and should correct closer to our estimated long term MYR2200-2400/ton level," says ASEAMBANKERS. Notes, IOI currently trading at implied average CPO price of MYR3400/ton based on 20X FY09 PER. "Fundamental investors with long term investment horizons should continue to trim their positions to and switch to better valued mid-cap plantation stocks like Asiatic (2291.KU) which down 1.2% at MYR8.40 and Tradewinds Plantations (6327.KU) +0.5% at MYR3.80. IOI Corp down 1.3% at MYR7.90. (VGB)




This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 18 2008, 04:11 PM

CPO today closed at very very surprisingly high 3599.0 UP a whooping +119.0

Any one know why such a high gain in cpo today?

MARKET TALK: Plantation Shares Up As Palm Oil Still At Record - 2008-02-19 04:45:00.0



0445 GMT. Plantation stocks higher with palm oil price still at record levels; benchmark 3-month CPO futures remains at MYR3,599/ton, same as yesterday's record and dealers say higher prices, if sustained, suggest another record year ahead for earnings of plantation companies. "Although valuations are quite rich, buying interest will still be strong because the sector is set to be among the fastest growing this year, making it a safe bet for investors in the current climate of uncertainty," dealer says. IOI Corp (1961.KU) +2.5% at MYR8.10, United Plantations (2089.KU) +2.9% at MYR14.30, KL Kepong (2445.KU) +1.1% at MYR18.70, Kulim (2003.KU) +1.7% at MYR8.80.(BEL)

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Added on February 19, 2008, 6:25 pmMARKET TALK: STI +1.1%; Commodity Plays Strong; 3160 Cap - 2008-02-19 06:37:00.0



0637 GMT. STI +1.1% at 3117.48 as Hong Kong rally, strong gains for commodity plays support index. Bullish lead from U.S. futures, move back into positive territory for China's benchmark Shanghai Composite index means STI likely to hold onto gains until end of session. AmFraser analyst Najeeb Jarhom says STI close to key resistance level; "we'll probably see quite stiff resistance at 3150-3160, but if we can move above that we may see the market try for 3300." Volume still high; gainers outnumber losers 450 to 172 in broader market. (KIG)

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Added on February 20, 2008, 8:50 amMARKET TALK: Plantation Stks May Rise On Crude Oil Prices

20/02/2008 12:34:00 AM



0034 GMT. Plantation stocks may rise on expectations palm oil prices, already at record highs, may rise further, tracking run-up in crude oil prices; benchmark crude palm oil futures end above MYR3,600 level for first time yesterday. "Palm oil prices have been pushed up recently by the bullish supply-and-demand fundamentals on the food side. Now, the fuel side could come back into play with oil prices at $100," dealer says; interest in plantation stocks also likely to be buoyed by recent string of strong earnings from palm oil producers like IOI Corp (1961.KU), TSH Resources (9059.KU). IOI last ends +1.9% at MYR8.05, TSH +0.6% at MYR3.32, KL Kepong (2445.KU) down 0.5% at MYR18.80, Asiatic (2291.KU) +1.8% at MYR8.55, IJM Plantations (2216.KU) +1.6% at MYR3.82.(BEL)

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Added on February 21, 2008, 9:18 amDJ MARKET TALK: KL Kepong May Edge Up On 1Q Results

21/02/2008 12:43:00 AM



0043 GMT [Dow Jones] Plantation concern KL Kepong (2445.KU) may rise to test psychological resistance at MYR19 after posting 86% rise in 1Q net profit to MYR291.1 million vs MYR156.1 million year earlier, says dealer. Adds, company well on track to meet consensus FY08 net profit of MYR1.01 billion and "may even surpass this estimate if crude palm oil prices continue to rise." KL Kepong attributes performance to improved plantation profits due to strong palm product prices, higher fresh fruit bunch crop; expects profit for FY08 to be "substantially better" than previous year in light of bullish commodity prices. Shares ended down 0.5% at MYR18.70 yesterday. (VGB)

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Added on February 21, 2008, 1:49 pmDJ MARKET TALK: Citi Upgrades KL Kepong To Buy, Raises TP - 2008-02-21 05:14:00.0



0514 GMT [Dow Jones] Citigroup upgrades KL Kepong (2445.KU) or KLK to Buy from Hold, target price raised to MYR22.08 from MYR18.80; long-term crude palm oil or CPO price forecast revised up to MYR2,300/ton from MYR2,000/ton. Using DCF valuation, says KLK could enjoy operating cash flows more than MYR1 billion a year, assuming CPO price averages MYR2,900-MYR3100/ton over next 2-3 years. "We expect better performance in FY08-09, driven by higher CPO price, rising fresh fruit bunches (FFB) output and growing manufacturing profits," says Citi's Penny Yaw. Keeps FY08-09 earnings forecasts unchanged. KLK shares last flat at MYR18.70. (SJO,VGB)




This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 21 2008, 01:49 PM

Do you think it would be better to actually plant the palm oil trees ? Seriously..
My wife's family members started as farmers and still have palm oil and rubber plantaion here ( thailand).