You mean plantations only represented by 2 counters only ? cannot buy less popular counter, man ?

I bought bcos of low PEs , not bcos the stocks are more popular. There are other stocks that below RM 4 with PE of 10x.

Indirectly. i still have KLK , IOI and Sime , remember I have investments in unit trusts in PM ?

I tought you odeli disappear when mkt was bad ? Anyway, big welcome you back.

Remember, you are the one who invite me to talk in this forum, not the one in Public Mutual as you are the big brother there !

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 15 2008, 01:11 PM

Hey SKY, thank you for your warm welcome back
I am not saying that you need to have IOI or KLK, but I was just quoting you to answer chinkw1.
Of course I know there are many other counters out there.
I have not disappeared, but rather just leaving my counters there.
I have been active in the main finance forum though, but not really in the stock market sub forum.
I'm a small brother dude, you can ask chinkw1 if you don't believe

We are all investors who r willing to share ideas and knowlegde for win-win perusal.
hope 2008 will be good for equity and unit trust.

also, hope USA impact on us are kept to minimal

I read the research papers from broker that :-

They have a chart or analysis saying that there is a low correlation between Dow and Palm Oil Crude Prices bcos the big consumers are in Asia.

However, Asia's consumption might be affected if there are recessions in their own countries.

I see what Fed said is good bcos you cannot expect Dow to keep going up though there is still possibility of US recession . It is a wake up call.

If Dow is up 300+ a day , i got more worry.

More brokers like TA , OSK etc are calling a buy on Plantation Stocks.

Just share what I read. and Judge your own.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 15 2008, 02:16 PM

let's have for atleast one plantation counter in our portfolio

Could it be because there is nothing much to buy in the market at the current situation with such sentiment?

Plantation stocks are always consider defensive-similar with less exposure to any big drop in DJ, aren't there? After all US doesn't like palm oil and pitching soya oil, aren't they?

Anyway, plantation stocks are exciting play of KLSE. Unfortunately many of them are very far away from my budget and can't afford it.

I am forced to sell my TWS Plant though it is a good stock ( bad bcos of political connection ). It turns around in 07 and heading towards better 08.

Eyeing on Hap Seng Plant this time.

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Added on February 15, 2008, 3:43 pmQUOTE(cherroy @ Feb 15 2008, 04:07 PM)
Today I came across an article said, CPO might be under some bubble state already (beginning state). Fundamentally, it doesn't match the bullishness of FCPO. Stockpiles of Palm oil now is in historical high, export stagnant and drop slightly (based on lastest month of data), so the bullishness actually come from speculative buying as well as low soy bean supply in US. As in US, a lot of soy bean farm has been switched to corn due to ethanol for bio-diesel.

I don't know how true this article is.
So assess on your own.
*

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You are right . Crude Palm Oil Stock is record high in November 07 with 1.8m MT.

The crude palm oil price refuses to drop. By right It should.

Just bcos Soya Bean price refuses to come down. Crude Oil factor. .....

Sell into strength should be good too.

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Added on February 15, 2008, 8:35 pm15-02-2008: Malaysian palm futures at record on soyoil, demand

Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 2.7% to hit a new high on Feb 15, driven by surging exports and record high soybean oil prices, dealers said.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose as much as RM93 to hit a fresh record of RM3,544 ($1,097) a tonne. -- Reuters

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Added on February 15, 2008, 10:20 pm0332 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: OSK Research keeps Malaysia plantation sector at Overweight despite data showing record high palm oil inventory of 1.88 million tons at end-January; analyst Alvin Tai says high inventory likely temporary as exports to recover in coming months as weather in northern hemisphere warms up (palm oil solidifies at low temperatures). Says still too early to say crude palm oil prices, which averaged MYR3,225/ton in January, have peaked; "we remain positive on the sector as we believe the market has not fully discounted the potential supply shortfall in the year ahead, mainly from Indonesia's drought-impacted production yield." Maintains Buy calls on IOI Corp (1961.KU), Asiatic (2291.KU), Kulim (2003.KU), IJM Plantations (2216.KU). (BEL)

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Added on February 16, 2008, 10:11 am5-02-2008: OSK Research overweight on plantation sector

Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com

OSK Investment Research remains positive on the plantation sector as it believes the market has not fully discounted the potential supply shortfall in the year ahead, mainly from Indonesia's drought impacted production yield.

It remains overweight on the sector and continues to think plantation stocks are at comfortable valuation levels, despite its conservative crude palm oil (CPO) price assumption.

"Key buy ideas are IOI Corp (target price: RM8.80), Asiatic (RM9.50), Kulim (RM12.60) and IJM Plantations (RM4.60)," it said. Investors seeking exposure to Indonesian plantations could look at Golden Agri Resources (buy, target price: S$2.63 or RM6) listed on Singapore Exchange.

Malaysia's palm oil inventory hit record high in January on seasonally slow exports, aggravated by snowstorm in China and earlier concerns of EU's biodiesel policy change.

OSK Research said palm oil inventory was 1.88 million tonnes, a new record compared to the previous highest level of 1.81 million tonnes in November.

"At this point in time, we do not think the high inventory level could be sustained as exports are likely to recover significantly after a very slow January," it said.

The research house also said it did not see the high palm oil inventory as a cause for concern as exports would recover as northern hemisphere's weather gets warmer.

It expected CPO prices to likely remain firm on anticipation of tighter supply demand situation ahead.

Exports fell by 24% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 1.037 million tonnes as exports to China and EU slowed northern hemisphere winter reached its tail end. Exports to China fell by 21.7% month-on-month possibly due to January snowstorm.

The research house believed buyers might have held back purchases in hopes of securing lower prices as there were concerns the EU would ban palm-based biodesel.

"As these were temporary factors which are now behind us, we believe imports will start to recover in the next one to two months particularly as the weather gets warmer, which encourages the use of more palm oil in cooking oil blend," it said.

CPO prices averaged RM3,225 per tonne in January based on Malaysian Palm Oil Board prices compared to RM2,960 per tonne in December.

"As average price was RM265 per tonne higher m-o-m, we could not rule out the possibility higher prices may have affected January exports," it said, adding there were several other dominant factors involved and it was too early to forecast CPO prices had reached its ceiling.

OSK Research said the anticipated supply shortage ahead would be the main price driver for CPO rather than demand factors. It maintained its conservative average CPO price assumption at RM2,750 per tonne.

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Added on February 18, 2008, 4:11 pmDJ MARKET TALK: ASEAM Keeps Sell On IOI Corp; Ups Tgt MYR6.30

18/02/2008 07:46:00 AM



0746 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ASEAMBANKERS keeps Sell call on IOI Corp (1961.KU) with higher target price of MYR6.30 from MYR6.10 earlier; says 2Q08 net profit of MYR581 million within consensus estimates but is concerned earnings could peak this year. "We believe the current high CPO price of above MYR3000/ton is not sustainable and should correct closer to our estimated long term MYR2200-2400/ton level," says ASEAMBANKERS. Notes, IOI currently trading at implied average CPO price of MYR3400/ton based on 20X FY09 PER. "Fundamental investors with long term investment horizons should continue to trim their positions to and switch to better valued mid-cap plantation stocks like Asiatic (2291.KU) which down 1.2% at MYR8.40 and Tradewinds Plantations (6327.KU) +0.5% at MYR3.80. IOI Corp down 1.3% at MYR7.90. (VGB)




This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 18 2008, 04:11 PM

CPO today closed at very very surprisingly high 3599.0 UP a whooping +119.0

Any one know why such a high gain in cpo today?

MARKET TALK: Plantation Shares Up As Palm Oil Still At Record - 2008-02-19 04:45:00.0



0445 GMT. Plantation stocks higher with palm oil price still at record levels; benchmark 3-month CPO futures remains at MYR3,599/ton, same as yesterday's record and dealers say higher prices, if sustained, suggest another record year ahead for earnings of plantation companies. "Although valuations are quite rich, buying interest will still be strong because the sector is set to be among the fastest growing this year, making it a safe bet for investors in the current climate of uncertainty," dealer says. IOI Corp (1961.KU) +2.5% at MYR8.10, United Plantations (2089.KU) +2.9% at MYR14.30, KL Kepong (2445.KU) +1.1% at MYR18.70, Kulim (2003.KU) +1.7% at MYR8.80.(BEL)

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Added on February 19, 2008, 6:25 pmMARKET TALK: STI +1.1%; Commodity Plays Strong; 3160 Cap - 2008-02-19 06:37:00.0



0637 GMT. STI +1.1% at 3117.48 as Hong Kong rally, strong gains for commodity plays support index. Bullish lead from U.S. futures, move back into positive territory for China's benchmark Shanghai Composite index means STI likely to hold onto gains until end of session. AmFraser analyst Najeeb Jarhom says STI close to key resistance level; "we'll probably see quite stiff resistance at 3150-3160, but if we can move above that we may see the market try for 3300." Volume still high; gainers outnumber losers 450 to 172 in broader market. (KIG)

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Added on February 20, 2008, 8:50 amMARKET TALK: Plantation Stks May Rise On Crude Oil Prices

20/02/2008 12:34:00 AM



0034 GMT. Plantation stocks may rise on expectations palm oil prices, already at record highs, may rise further, tracking run-up in crude oil prices; benchmark crude palm oil futures end above MYR3,600 level for first time yesterday. "Palm oil prices have been pushed up recently by the bullish supply-and-demand fundamentals on the food side. Now, the fuel side could come back into play with oil prices at $100," dealer says; interest in plantation stocks also likely to be buoyed by recent string of strong earnings from palm oil producers like IOI Corp (1961.KU), TSH Resources (9059.KU). IOI last ends +1.9% at MYR8.05, TSH +0.6% at MYR3.32, KL Kepong (2445.KU) down 0.5% at MYR18.80, Asiatic (2291.KU) +1.8% at MYR8.55, IJM Plantations (2216.KU) +1.6% at MYR3.82.(BEL)

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Added on February 21, 2008, 9:18 amDJ MARKET TALK: KL Kepong May Edge Up On 1Q Results

21/02/2008 12:43:00 AM



0043 GMT [Dow Jones] Plantation concern KL Kepong (2445.KU) may rise to test psychological resistance at MYR19 after posting 86% rise in 1Q net profit to MYR291.1 million vs MYR156.1 million year earlier, says dealer. Adds, company well on track to meet consensus FY08 net profit of MYR1.01 billion and "may even surpass this estimate if crude palm oil prices continue to rise." KL Kepong attributes performance to improved plantation profits due to strong palm product prices, higher fresh fruit bunch crop; expects profit for FY08 to be "substantially better" than previous year in light of bullish commodity prices. Shares ended down 0.5% at MYR18.70 yesterday. (VGB)

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Added on February 21, 2008, 1:49 pmDJ MARKET TALK: Citi Upgrades KL Kepong To Buy, Raises TP - 2008-02-21 05:14:00.0



0514 GMT [Dow Jones] Citigroup upgrades KL Kepong (2445.KU) or KLK to Buy from Hold, target price raised to MYR22.08 from MYR18.80; long-term crude palm oil or CPO price forecast revised up to MYR2,300/ton from MYR2,000/ton. Using DCF valuation, says KLK could enjoy operating cash flows more than MYR1 billion a year, assuming CPO price averages MYR2,900-MYR3100/ton over next 2-3 years. "We expect better performance in FY08-09, driven by higher CPO price, rising fresh fruit bunches (FFB) output and growing manufacturing profits," says Citi's Penny Yaw. Keeps FY08-09 earnings forecasts unchanged. KLK shares last flat at MYR18.70. (SJO,VGB)




This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 21 2008, 01:49 PM

Do you think it would be better to actually plant the palm oil trees ? Seriously..
My wife's family members started as farmers and still have palm oil and rubber plantaion here ( thailand).

Palm Oil Planting is good in the sense you do not have to take care on day to day basis ( rubber plant may need to ).

Palm Oil has the potential to become a bio fuel .

Its main competitor is soya bean oil, but in USA the farmers are converting to corn planting with higher profit margin and prospect as bio fuel.

Big markets in China and India.

It is big favorite with small planters in Malaysia.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 26 2008, 08:28 AM

Anyone own and KLK or IOIcorp counters here?

DJ MARKET TALK: KLCI Up +0.1% In Thin Volume; 1360-1380 Eyed - 2008-02-25 05:07:00.0



0507 GMT [Dow Jones] KLCI +0.1% at 1370.48 in thin volume, off intra-day low of 1368.35, as investors bet bullish crude palm oil prices will lift earnings of plantation stocks. Index tipped to trade in 1360-1380 today. "Palm oil prices continue to do well by posting new record-highs," says dealer. CPO benchmark 3rd month contract last at MYR3,905/ton midday. Among gainers, plantations IOI Corp (1961.KU) +3.2% at MYR8.05, Sime Darby (4197.KU) +2.6% at MYR12.00 and KL Kepong (2445.KU) +1.6% at MYR18.70. On downside, Gamuda (5398.KU) down 11% at MYR3.48 on sustained foreign selling pressure while MRCB (1651.KU) down 7.1% at MYR2.07 and DiGi (6947.KU) down 3.3% at MYR23.70. (ALE)

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Added on February 25, 2008, 3:05 pmDJ MARKET TALK: M'sia Plantations Up As Palm Oil Hits New Record - 2008-02-25 06:46:00.0



0646 GMT [Dow Jones] Malaysian plantation stocks higher as crude palm oil prices rally to fresh record high; CPO futures above MYR3,900/ton for first time ever today; analysts say palm oil producers set for robust earnings growth this year as current selling prices around 5-6 times production cost; "Just when it seemed prices have peaked, we are seeing another new high. We may have to revise upwards our earnings forecasts and target prices for plantation companies yet again," says analyst at local brokerage who has Overweight recommendation on plantation sector; among major palm oil producers, IOI Corp. +2.6% at MYR8.00, Sime (4197.KU) +1.7% at MYR11.90, IJM Plantations (2216.KU) +2.6% at MYR3.88, KL Kepong (2445.KU) +1.6% at MYR18.70. (BEL)

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Added on February 26, 2008, 6:35 pmDJ CPO Prices May Reach MYR4,500/Ton In '08 - Analysts - 2008-02-26 07:33:00.0

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 26 2008, 06:35 PM

how about HSPlant??seem like no ppl interest with HSplant

Yes, HS Plant is a good stock, except it is not on the "radar " of most retail investors.

It is good that you do some homeworks on your own, rather than just following the rest without knowing why.

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Added on February 29, 2008, 10:04 amDJ MARKET TALK: MS Remains Bullish On Asia Agribusiness Sector - 2008-02-29 01:59:00.0



0159 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley says strong underlying trend in soft commodities supports bullish view on agribusiness in Asia. "We remain positive on both upstream resource producers benefiting from rising agricultural commodities prices and productivity facilitators that enhance crop yields. We would avoid downstream processors as we expect higher input costs and limited pricing power to continue; i.e., soybean and corn processors." Expects supply challenges to keep boosting prices for soft commodities such as palm oil, soybean, corn, with raw milk, vegetables prices to catch-up on growing demand for higher protein diets in emerging countries, clean fuel demand from developed world, scarcity of land and water; notes adverse weather conditions could further disrupt food supply driving up prices further. "Agriculture is also one of the most recession-proof of all asset classes, especially in a scenario of global slowdown." Tips top picks as China Green (0904.HK), Sime Darby (4197.KU); says China Green benefiting from vegetable-price uptrend, solid cost management; Sime Darby is proxy for global crude palm oil (CPO) sector, with upside risk on exposure to biofuel industry. (LES)




This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 29 2008, 10:04 AM

Wow and I thought CPO target as RM4k by end of 2008. First quarter already RM3994 achieved, anyone believe its going to pop soon?

Currently already 2 months into the 1st quarter of 2008 and CPO has been rising non-stop. Results of all this sales will be reported by May 08. And don't forget, May futures is RM3994 at last trade.

CPO prices soar above RM4,000
PALM oil prices pierced through the RM4,000 per tonne level yesterday, fuelled by a feverish rise in soya oil prices in the commodity exchanges in the US and China.

Yesterday, the third month benchmark palm oil futures price on Malaysian Derivatives Exchange leapt to a record RM4,013 per tonne before closing at RM4,005 per tonne.

Palm oil and soya bean oil prices often move in tandem as they are substitutes for each other. Both are used to make the same products like cooking oil, chocolates, and even personal care products like moisturiser.

"Today, soya bean in Chicago is very high because of bad weather in the US. Over in Dalian, soya bean has also hit limit-up and that has fuelled the rise in refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil," said Ricky Chin Kok Thye, executive director of Oriental Pacific Futures Sdn Bhd, a broking house.

China, which is also the world's biggest buyer of palm oil and soya bean, experienced its worst winter storms recently.

Following the global trend in soya oil prices, he was not surprised when palm oil surpassed the RM4,000 per tonne level.

"When soya becomes too expensive, traders buy into palm oil as a substitute. There's no panic-buying as yet but speculators will have to cover their shorts very soon," he said.

"The palm oil futures is still on an upward trend. I would expect the next target to be RM4,200 per tonne," he added.

At the recent Palm & Lauric Oils Conference 2008 held in Kuala Lumpur, industry experts say palm oil prices could hit a new high of RM4,500 a tonne this year.

They also said it was unlikely to fall below RM3,000 because of strong global demand and limited supply in the world's other 16 vegetable oils. - By Ooi Tee Ching

Hi

Which company should we go for ?



Thank YOu.

If you are new comer to the market, first thing you must learn - how to be patient.

1) You can learn first and it is for FOC or

2) You can choose to pay tuition fee to learn.

If you are prepared to pay some tuition fees first , now could be the time to buy.

But the downside risk of the market is much higher than the upside risk. Could be wrong anyway.

Just a friendly advice.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Mar 3 2008, 12:44 PM

Hi sky.


Where can i learn? is there any courses i should go for ?

pls direct me.




Thank You.