I know there are quite a few fans of MAYBULK in here. Just want to know your thoughts on the recent drop in prices and the fact that one of their biggest shareholders have already sold more than 1 million shares since Oct 07.

no worries about that, the prospect for 2008 look very bright and the company is very cash rich. either they will give a high dividen or use the cash to buy new ship which will increase their revenue in the future. I dont think the recent drop will affect long term invester.

one of the top company that pay gud dividend

Actually, I was targeting to buy MAYBULK at RM 4.00 last time, but suddenly it shot up so high, I never looked at it seriously until now. Since the price has been dropping steadily, I re-assess the counter and found some things I like and dislike about the counter.

Most worrying for me is although the revenues of MAYBULK is showing an increase every quarter, their nett profits are at a decline. Assuming the 4th quarter results show the same trend, it would be an indication of rising costs not being absorbed by the higher rates it is charging for its services.

so what is your next target price to buy MAYBULK?

Dunno, I still have a target of RM4.00 at the moment. Haven't do any technicals yet to see what is the best entry point. Only read the last 2 quarterly reports.

Maybulk is uncle Kuok's baby.

I m also watching it, will get some at around 4.20. Its a good company

Chinkw1,

do you think it will come down to that level again? RM 4.20 is still quite far from where it is right now, maybe possible if the down trend continues to the New Year. Hopefully, there is some major correction that would scare off some people into selling the shares.

Now about 4.4x, 4.20 is not that far away, if another few days red chillis around the global equities market, easily can reach it.

Ya true, if DJ down a few more days, HSI down a few more days, i think even can reach 4.00 leh.
wait and see lor.

But this is a must have counter, as its next dividend is in February 2008, handsome dividend

Thanks for the heads up. Yeah definitely a 'must have' for dividend players.

how handsome dividend is that? any info?

I'm only guessing here, but looking at past performance and their dividends. FYE 2006 MAYBULK paid Final Dividend of RM0.12 followed by a special dividend of RM0.18 making the total amount RM0.30 for 2006.

I would think that due to the sterling performance of Maybulk FYE 2007, the dividends should be at least the same or higher. Same meaning no special dividend, but rather final dividend as RM0.30. That should be around the 5%-6% region.

lemme see, based on the past year dividend records:

For Year 2007
Interim 8¢ TE - 10-Sep-07
First & Final 12¢+Special 18¢ TE - 24-Apr-07

For Year 2006
First & Final 12¢ + Special 5¢ TE - 19-Apr-06

For Year 2005
Final 12¢ TE - 09-May-05

For Year 2004
First & Final 7% TE - 29-Apr-04

it seems that MAYBULK constantly paying on April
so i predict the next dividend payout should be somewhere in April 2008

Normally, for most dividend stocks, dividend payout time is quite predictable which almost identical (around that month period) to each financial year if nothing goes wrong due to the financial result auditing/reporting.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 18 2007, 02:19 PM

i see

if my main intention is only for the dividend
i guess now is not the right time to buy MAYBULK yet

current price no doubt is slumping
but MAYBULK has been moving upwards very fast over the past few months
the slumping for this moment probably is still a correction

i still remember MAYBULK was at 3.00 during the sub prime issues way back in late Aug 07

expecting another 30 cents per share dividend for 2008?
after the 1 for 4 bonus issue in may 2008
maybulk has 1 billion units of 25cents par value shares in issued
that would mean RM300 millions just for dividend
i am sure maybulk can afford, 9 months into 2007 already earn profit 38cents per share
with this its nta will reduce to RM1.31 but will the share price reduce by 20% also?
i must admit its quarterly earning is extremely high

Yes, it is more like correction rather than plunging, from its graph, it is still on a steep mountain.

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Added on December 18, 2007, 3:05 pmIt is the earning/profit that's matter which is the most important issue to sustain high dividend.

Has to dilute the bonus issue if want to compare with the previous dividend historical record to have a fair comparison.

The reduction of NTA is because of bonus issue which share price has already being adjusted once (from Rm5 to Rm3+) but it shoot up again to RM5 recently because of sky-rocketing drybulk shipping rate.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 18 2007, 03:06 PM


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Hmmm I didn't take into account the cash flow when I guessed the dividend. You're right, 300 million is actually a lot. Almost half of their current cash in hand, so I doubt it'll be that high unless they get a sudden windfall. So maybe it's best to lower our expectations to below RM0.20, it's more reasonable and if their cash flow increases another RM100 mil this quarter, their wallets won't feel that light after dividend payments.

At the moment, looking at the EPS for this year alone is at 38.87 cents already for 3 quarters. Assuming the 4th quarter is like the 3rd quarter profits which is the lowest of all 3 quarters. We're looking at a year end EPS of 50.42 cents for 4 quarters. At the current price of RM4.40, thats a PER of 8.7x. Not bad considering the share holders will be getting some dividends by next year assuming the results are within expectations.

Ya, it is a must have counter.

But the issue is at what price and when.

I think 4.00 is right price, and at least need to keep for 6 months.