contra is one of the ways to invest ... a bit closer toward gambling, I lost all my invesment in contra due to follow market too close and got emotional and got burned
Stock Market In Malaysia V7
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 Nov 19 2007, 11:20 PM
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#1
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digi is a big bubble ....
contra is one of the ways to invest ... a bit closer toward gambling, I lost all my invesment in contra due to follow market too close and got emotional and got burned |
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Nov 20 2007, 06:31 PM
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#2
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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Nov 19 2007, 11:44 PM) Agree cutting loss is a method for those with limited cash. But for me, since those counters that I've got has strong fundamental, going back up is just a matter of time. In the meantime, just take those dividend as a reward. What to do? It's not everyday you can double your earning cut loss when there is a better deal .... if you know a stock is for sure will drop for another 2 months, why not just cut loss now and buy 2 months later. there is no room to doubt cut loss strategy, only doubt how to know if a stock will continously go down for how long. . Sometimes just have to satisfy with the dividend. Or when the price is lower, buy back to enjoy more dividend (in term of % theoretically) QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 20 2007, 05:29 PM) next time portfolio must be 90% blue chip 10% warrant. should use different accounts to trade stocks and warrant. trading warrants with intraday account is quite an exciting game .... and only do it when you have the time.Added on November 20, 2007, 6:32 pmanyone got burn by Digi ? see Digi very cham suddenly kena kau kau on this deal ... This post has been edited by mtsen: Nov 20 2007, 06:32 PM |
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Nov 20 2007, 06:45 PM
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#3
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Hi cherroy and fellow sifus ... need help to understand PE .... again
Maybank 13.80 AFFIN 14.56 HLBANK 14.86 but PBBANK 20.35 so base on this PE alone, PBBANK is not as attractive as other banks, is this induction correct ? Added on November 20, 2007, 6:47 pm QUOTE(sinclairZX81 @ Nov 20 2007, 06:43 PM) Wah, Digi oso can kena goreng? not gorent lah ... Digi is forced to reduce precentage, then Digi bought Time 3G, now Minister said Time cannot sell 3G to Digi but Digi already paid Time !? so today very cham, big correction ... I have seen many technical correction but this one is quite a big joke in biz world I think ... This post has been edited by mtsen: Nov 20 2007, 06:47 PM |
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Nov 21 2007, 12:02 AM
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#4
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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Nov 20 2007, 07:07 PM) oh wait, this is something new to me!  where can i read more? today DIGI price dropped, i thought that was because the price has been go all time high since last Thursday, when the news of DIGI buying 3G license from TIMECOM was out, so it is pretty normal, i didn't know there is such a news! QUOTE(David83 @ Nov 20 2007, 07:50 PM) Any reliable source for this? QUOTE(hexen7 @ Nov 20 2007, 08:49 PM) Where did you hear about this news, i cant seem to find anything about it I watched 5pm news just now and Lim Kit Yek was giving a speech about that ... that the license was given to Time, if Time doesn't use it, then the minister will take it back, If Time wants to sell it, Time should inform the minister first, until now minister hasn't heard from anyone about selling 3G licenses ... but I don't think its a big issue. Time is only sharing the bandwidth, not selling any licenses actually. So eventually things will clear up in my opinion. But its still a bad news for Digi and it shows how stupid our ministers are too .... QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 20 2007, 07:20 PM) For PBBank the reason why the PE is higher is due to them entering china market, so they are expected to grow even bigger. And their EPS growth is more than maybanks which is roughly stagnant. MBB covers many foreign countries too. Both MBB and PBB EPS growth rate is similar, at least the last time I check, they are.For maybank , GLC , my guess is most of the revenue are local, and depend a lot on government so they cannot have too high of a PE cause i don't think investors will pay a premium for it. QUOTE(jasontoh @ Nov 20 2007, 08:36 PM) That is the reason why I won't cut loss...since we don't know whether we are seeing bottom or there's more to come. Or suddenly it will bounce back. yes, if u dun think the drop will persist, u hold ... and when the drop is more than 20%, you average down.QUOTE(wctan83 @ Nov 20 2007, 08:38 PM) I think i will start to sell off all my share and get the cash better, next year the processing fees is RM 40... how to play? play fundamental and keep for minimum 6 months ...havent play loose liao QUOTE(chinkw1 @ Nov 20 2007, 08:47 PM) Next yr minimum is RM40 stamp duty ? not really kicking out small timers, but want all small timers not to gorent too much and stick to fundamental buy ...Then we small timer how to play?? so kau lat one ah???? KLSE intention is to kick out small timer is it??? QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 20 2007, 09:38 PM) You guys/gals are getting old and not updated data for comparison. You get 20 PE with last year full financial report, but not the lastest quarterly 9up to 9 months now) I got those PE from PBebank online account, which are suppose to be real time PE. Thanks, u r right, I sud look at quarterly PE instead.Based on Pbbank lastest Q result, its annualised EPS will be 65 cents (16.2 cents for the latest Q), at Rm10.50, it translates about 16.1x, while Commerz, if annualised is around 10+ PE only, (discussed it before) It is about market future expectation and quality of the company that are several reasons that dictate whether market willing to pay a premium on it especially Pbbank, it never posted losses for any financial year even during 1997 financial crisis (still manage to post although it is just a relative small amount of profit while others making significant losses due to quality the loan at that time). You need to look at the quality of the company or in term quality of their business to determine which is more worthful. At the same PE, you want to buy Pbbank or Affin? (no disrepect or offence though) simple question that you also know the answer. This is one of the disadvantage of investing in GLCs, market often (although not necessary) discounting a bit on those company, due to political or efficiency etc as well as historical reason. PE is not just a financial calculation, it is quite an important number to look at for a stock valuation, although it doesn't represent the whole picture, it is one of the important puzzle to look at. After all, investment is about return rate each time, PE gives you one of the clue. QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 20 2007, 09:50 PM) I think you play the wrong game with the market. that's why I always lost in speculation .... lack of insider info.Stock market is not behaving like that. Stock market is always try to behave in front or for the future expectation. When good news come out, like being awarded big contract, share price will shoot up because market expect it to make big profit from it (as you expected/said), so at that time share price shoot up to reflect the positive factor (future profit) into it already. At that time, the share price is 'price in the positive factor already. So afterwards, company does report as market expected then share price won't have much movement when they announce the financial report unless it reported better than market expectation. Typical example would be IOI or Commerz recently, when announced significant profit rise compared to last year, but share price hardly move much at the day of annoucement, why? because market already expected or anitcipate it already and share few months ago already rise signficantly, not waiting until they finally announced it. In fact, if IOI reported 50% rise in profit rather than 70% rise as market anticipated, share price probably will drop rather than rise. I am not saying Sapcres cannot reach or will reach the targe price or not, as whatever mentioned in above has nothing to do with specific Sapcres anyway(this is not my intention also), just try to highlight about how market plays with news and expectation related to share prices. There is also one part of reason buy on rumour, sell on news theory. Added on November 21, 2007, 12:04 amfor those who asked for DIGI news .... this is even the latest one, Time has responded to Lim .. Time Dotcom: Digi Tie-up Unaffected by Government Spectrum Recall KUALA LUMPUR -(Dow Jones)- TIME dotCom Bhd Tuesday said a Malaysian government decision to revoke some wireless broadband licenses won't affect its alliance with DiGi.Com. The statement was made after Energy, Water and Communications Minister Lim Keng Yaik, was reported in local media Tuesday as saying the government will withdraw some of the high-speed Internet licenses previously given out, as the market is too crowded. The licenses for the 2.5 Ghz and 3.5 Ghz spectrums will be taken back over a five-year period, Lim said. "The alliance between TIME dotCom Berhad and DiGi.Com Berhad is on track with both parties moving ahead to pool their resources spanning infrastructure and 3G services," TIME said in a statement. It added that the announcement of a recall of "will have no impact on the alliance." -Kuala Lumpur Bureau, Dow Jones Newswires; (603) 2692 5254; e-benjamin.low@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires Posted to the site on 20th November 2007 This post has been edited by mtsen: Nov 21 2007, 12:04 AM |
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Nov 21 2007, 09:49 AM
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#5
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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Nov 21 2007, 08:56 AM) @mtsen thanks for the first hand news upsdate on DIGI & TDC  yah, i heard the news from FM too, looks like our govrnenment is holding back the 3G license huh...  so expecting DIGI shares price to decline today QUOTE(jasontoh @ Nov 21 2007, 09:01 AM) If I'm Telenor's management, I will hentam Digi's share and pull out....at the same time short play till TDC's also go down to drain QUOTE(jojoe @ Nov 21 2007, 09:03 AM) my brother told me gorverment hold back WiMAX spectrum for certian company.... if not mistaken grren packet and also timedotcom. Time already respond this license take back does not affect their deal with Digi yesterday, just moments after Lim's said so. The truth is the minister made a fool out of himself. But digi price drops anyway because of the correction. It has been so overtrade that this is bound to happen. And the news is just an excuse to start the correction. But my price for digi is below 19, I dun think market sentiment will let it drop till there this time ...i think should not related to digi and 3g license... |
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Nov 21 2007, 09:56 AM
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#6
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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 21 2007, 09:53 AM) For those of you who are losing substantial money in CW, you might consider converting it to the mothershare before it expires, at least no matter how low the CW goes your mothershare might be able to exceed the price in the future. Even waiting two years before making a profit is better than making a big loss. how to convert ? fill a form ? make a call ? |
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Nov 21 2007, 05:43 PM
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#7
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1,473 posts Joined: Nov 2005
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cherroy,
Fill up form, send to the respective company registrar or issuer. that's simple, take a few weeks to be completed. what is company registra ? like maybank-CA, where to get what form ? |
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Nov 21 2007, 06:47 PM
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#8
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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 21 2007, 06:39 PM) First time in history our oil break the 3 digit mark. You guys should be proud. is it bcoz GSC showing "Orang Minyak" ?QUOTE(hon @ Nov 21 2007, 06:44 PM) izzit now good time to shop Genting or Resort shares? i oso eye on Genting, PE so low .... wonder why ...and by the way.. wat is Google-CL? i dun think it's a true Google ..every1 go for it on its 1st day.. 2nd day drop till "drop pant" yesterday raise back now drop back... wow.. like rollar coaster.. |
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Nov 21 2007, 06:51 PM
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#9
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need advice from sifus again ....
I have been watching Maybank-CA, it has been under value for many weeks, it always stay below its worth ( Mother Share Price - Exercise Price > Warrant price ) .... this week, when it shoot up, it shoot up to 1.6 for just one single moment and drop back down, as if one single guy is playing with himself .... 1. Why undervalue warrant for so long ppl are not interested ? Isn't it just exercise it and get mother share instantly earn 10% a good deal ? 2. What is it with the trend that shoot up really high but only for one moment and then drop back down to its average day trade value ? |
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Nov 22 2007, 09:40 AM
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#10
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1,473 posts Joined: Nov 2005
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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Nov 21 2007, 07:13 PM) Whenever you research about warrants, always remember to research the mother share as well. And I mean really research the mother share, not just look at the current price and think you've done enough. Especially for HK CWs. I believe for Maybank-CA, the CW is in negative premium due to a dividend which is expected to drop the price of the mother share. That is why the CW price is compensating for it. It (the market) is quite efficient in that matter. QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 21 2007, 08:17 PM) Maybank-CA is issued by Khazanah, so should contact Khazanah respective office, they will do it for you can try ask investment bank to do it for you where you kept the CA in the CDS. Investment banks or broker houses generally have the contact or at least know where or who to approach for the conversion. Thanks, quite an eye opener for me. no wonder i always lost everytime I play warrant ...1. It is just a little bit undervalued which won't prompt people to rush to buy in. At today closing price of RM1.56 + exercise price Rm9.72, it become Rm11.28, taking the commission of buying the CA, it become Rm11.30. Maybank close at Rm11.50, so there is not much different to make as you will carry the risk during conversion, as for the conversion to be completed, it might take a week or 2 which by then Maybank price even still the same, you are making little money only, if Maybank price drop down a few ten cents, you already making a loss. Also remember, Maybank is giving out a 17+cents dividend (not to sure, around that figure, need to check it), so a 20 cents will be deducted out from the mothershare price when dividend 'ex' time aroudn December, so at RM 11.30 (11.50-0.20) is a fair value for Maybank-CA. Just like Skiddtrader said, market always will be efficiency one, it won't wait to have huge discount for someone to make easy profit of it, as if really got, people already snap up already, still waiting for someone for days? If memory not falling me, I reckon one of the forumer also ask it before. He/she also think it is undervalued but forget about the 40cents dividend, Maybank-CB or other?, forget liao. Warrant valuation or premium come from its gearing and long expiration date, Maybank-CA only has about 1 months life-time, generally people don't want to play it too much. QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Nov 21 2007, 10:33 PM) not low enough if you are comparing 6 months graph no technical signal to buy tebrau yet. GENTING is a good counter to keep for long term, imo Attached thumbnail(s) 
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Nov 22 2007, 09:41 AM
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#11
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QUOTE(chinkw1 @ Nov 22 2007, 09:36 AM) ioi rebound leh, u seelll so fast meh? proton oso rebound to the top 10 gainer but who want to buy ? |
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Nov 23 2007, 12:16 AM
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#12
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1,473 posts Joined: Nov 2005
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when will maybank declare dividen ?
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Nov 23 2007, 08:59 AM
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#13
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1,473 posts Joined: Nov 2005
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i think overall sentiment is quite good, quite a handful is aiming for year end hike and chinese new year too .... hope all goes well ...
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Nov 23 2007, 12:10 PM
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#14
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today quite a yummy day for me, lucky to sell off all my maybank-CA
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Nov 23 2007, 12:58 PM
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#15
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1,473 posts Joined: Nov 2005
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afternoon session and next few weeks before Christmas ... eye on Bursa-CF. Any cautious notes Cherroy ?
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Nov 23 2007, 01:21 PM
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#16
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QUOTE(mtsen @ Nov 23 2007, 12:58 PM) afternoon session and next few weeks before Christmas ... eye on Bursa-CF. Any cautious notes Cherroy ? nvm lah, this one 10-1 conversion ... not attractive liao ... will find others ... |
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Nov 23 2007, 01:40 PM
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#17
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QUOTE(iamyuanwu @ Nov 23 2007, 01:35 PM) Anyone looking at PANAMY? base on graph alone, I would enter panamy when it goes up to 11.30Pretty good divident, IMO. When do you guys think is a good time to enter? BTW, how to check when is divident being paid? |
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Nov 23 2007, 02:12 PM
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#18
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QUOTE(chinkw1 @ Nov 23 2007, 01:50 PM) Maybulk very geng, announce its stunning financial report, up 88% compared to previous corresponding quarter. fake result ? has not minus debt yet ? dun know ....MAYBULK geng. But how come price drop like shit ?? No announce good result, price not moving, once announce EXCELLENT result, price drop like freefall ???? Really scratching my head leh... Pana, help explain plsssssssssssssss QUOTE(4throttle @ Nov 23 2007, 01:58 PM) pana. expiring 8 Jan, even if rebound, wun't rebound that much. But watch closely coz sometimes dying warrant has last minute surge one ....u think gamuda-cd can rebound or not.. aiyo buy it at the highest price laa.. now losing manyak woo.. |
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Nov 23 2007, 02:13 PM
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#19
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Just realize now that IOI EPS continously grow at 20% .... anyone can help summarize what contributes the drop recently ?
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Nov 25 2007, 12:26 AM
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#20
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QUOTE(chinkw1 @ Nov 24 2007, 01:33 PM) CRUDE OIL 98.2 +1.6 IOI better than KLK, I would probably wait till tuesday earliest or don't mind waiting a few more days. what was causing the IOI down trend ?CPO 3044.0 +52.0 OIL up, CPO up the highest one day jump up. Monday IOI reach 7.50 easily. KLK up RM80sen easily. Month end SynergyD also ho sei liaw Added on November 24, 2007, 1:35 pmAny one holding HSPlant?? ho sei liaw |
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