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 China hit record 1 trillion trade surplus but, China is still collapsing

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MGM
post Dec 10 2025, 03:09 AM

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QUOTE(Phoenix_KL @ Dec 10 2025, 01:47 AM)
money not spent in country? give mykasih?
this why usd always high, countries keep giving loan to usa.

Yes, China has historically used its massive trade surplus (earning lots of US dollars) to buy bonds
, primarily U.S. Treasury bonds, as a safe, high-yielding investment for its foreign reserves, though its holdings have fluctuated and shifted in recent years. China accumulated vast dollar reserves from exporting more to the U.S. than it imported, and investing these dollars in safe U.S. debt was a key strategy for its central bank.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/inves...asury-bonds.asp

AI Overview
The US dollar maintains a consistently high value primarily because of its role as the world's dominant reserve currency and the perception of the United States as a stable and reliable economic power. Other countries, including their central banks and private investors, buy U.S. debt (Treasury securities) as a secure investment and to facilitate global trade.
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MGM
post Dec 10 2025, 03:16 AM

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QUOTE(vhs @ Dec 10 2025, 12:01 AM)
Well they need to accumulate more now, because one day they might have to deal with the effect of a balanced trade when the west all gang up and forcefully boycott all exports from China, then they will have to settle for only manufacture for internal consumption as well as other nations who are willing to buy due to lack of capabilities, such as some consumer products like TV etc that many nations are unable to make themselves even if they try.

There are two market segments:

The west, which does have the knowledge and capabilities to create their own products, but choose to rely on China because it is cheaper. This market segment can choose to bite the bullets and boycott all exports from China, and work among themselves to create the same products even though they will be more expensive. The most likely outcome is the rich will get even richer while the middle class and the poor will get even poorer at the end. But it is their freedom so they can freely choose this outcome.

The others, which does have the knowledge and capabilities to create some of their own products. One simple example is TV, not every nations on Earth can create their TV on their own even if they try. It is simply cheaper to buy from other countries, and China is likely going to be the cheapest. Even very common gadgets like smartphone will be a challenge for many nations. China advantages is its sheer size and hence economy of scale dwarf everyone else.

Even if both the markets all work together to totally boycott all exports from China, China can still settle for making products for own consumption only. The populations in China is same as all the western countries including EU and USA and Canada and Australia plus Japan and South Korea combining together. So it is a huge market. In a total boycott environment, things will be weird though. Due to China has low currency value, their products being sold internally will be far cheaper than similar products being sold elsewhere in the world. Anyway, that's just a hypothetical situation since it has not happened.
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Doubt anyone can challenge China which is already the factory of the world. Moreover China is a major trading country with many countries, suicidal to boycott.

MGM
post Yesterday, 07:03 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 10 2025, 06:40 PM)
It takes years to replace a supply chain. Prc will likely to post enormous trade surplus in the next few years.
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And if China suceeds in advancing their AI & Semicon technology n industries they will rule the world's manufacturing. Most other countries will only survive as being their raw material suppliers cos they r just uncompetitive.
MGM
post Yesterday, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 11 2025, 11:14 AM)
Tariff, etc could shift price competitiveness.
Given time and resources, almost everything is replaceable. it not necessary to replace prc by one country but could be by a few countries.

prc current situation is like japan in the 1990's. prc may have trade surplus but domestic consumption may be depressed for a few decades.
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China is a top trading country with many other countries, doubt they dare to impose tariffs, except US.
THis time is different from 1990s, cos of AI, robotics, automation, and China is very strong in these..
China is also a powerhouse in infrastructure building, ship building & transport that few can compete.
China is also strong in renewable energy sector esp Solar and Nuclear.

 

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