It mainly comes down to the Sabah for Sabahan sentiment. Everything else is just extra factors.
Most young voters in Sabah have long seen DAP as an outsider from Semenanjung, and certain groups have weaponized that narrative even before the election.
DAP is not completely innocent either. They acted like they were standing on top of Mount Kinabalu after the last Sabah state election. Now they have to start from the bottom again, and hopefully that becomes a lesson for them heading into GE16.
GRS has Musa’s blessing, Warisan does not. The past betrayal is still fresh in these people’s memories.
PAS got lucky with one seat, nothing more.
Swing votes are nothing new in Malaysia’s elections, it happened nationwide during GE15 as well.
Then, we have PH.
The biggest loser compared to DAP.
Yes, they won two seats, but there is nothing to celebrate when those wins rely on two kataks.
It shows that their internal party issues are still bad. Hassan Karim and Rafizi remain as the 'outsider' voices in PKR who dare to question every move, whether as the government backbenchers or as a political party members.
Do take a hint, our dear PMX. Check those people around you, they will be your downfall in GE16.
Rafizi's stay in PH is crucial now, as his absence from the party will signal a complete shattering of confidence both internally and externally. As of now, in the eyes of the people, he is the very soul of reformasi, not anwar, not rocket, and definitely not PH.