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 Wht I learn from Ukraine & Zalensky this week

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empyreal
post Jun 4 2025, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(loserguy @ Jun 4 2025, 10:03 AM)
Bombing cities, railway lines, roads, is still roughly at the same level as they were previously. Hitting at their nuclear strike capability is something else.

It is the same for any other nuclear power. Touching their ability to launch their nukes is a big no no to them.

If you are going to do that, you better make sure you have the capability to wipe them out completely. Ukraine is far from being able to do that.

There are some options that Putin has not touched yet. Including nukes and other modern weapons.
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so far, no response yet.
empyreal
post Jun 4 2025, 02:01 PM

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QUOTE(70U63 @ Jun 4 2025, 12:57 PM)
Let's us focus on 'smaller' incidents: destroyed of airplanes and bridge kena bxmbed

Let's us ignore the bigger pic: Polar bears are advancing.

Depend which side and story u want to focus.  rclxms.gif 

AMDK keep repeating Polar bear failed to take Kyiv on the first 3 days.  whistling.gif

Now, one country 20% land gone  icon_idea.gif
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Let's put it in a different perspective - the us (and the ussr before it) invaded afghanistan, took over the government, took over most of tge country, but still faced decades of insurgencies and had to leave.

After more than three years of invading ukraine, russia hasn't even gotten to the 'take over whole country and face mass insurgency' part yet. It's a mess.

What's happening now is much more than putin initially expected. It's like the us invading afghanistan, then losing hundreds of thousands of confirmed casualties, thousands of confirmed tanks, have Blackwater revolt and start attacking the us army, then now have its fleet of B52s partly destroyed. Any us president would've been kicked out faster than nixon.
empyreal
post Jun 5 2025, 08:57 AM

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QUOTE(loserguy @ Jun 5 2025, 08:40 AM)
Agent Krasnov: hue hue hue

Trump: Putin says Russia will ‘have to’ respond to Ukraine attacks
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-...cks/ar-AA1G5YSH
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So basically no nukes.
empyreal
post Jun 5 2025, 10:17 AM

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QUOTE(loserguy @ Jun 5 2025, 09:55 AM)
Basically, Trump says ayam tatau ayam virgin, lu sukak buat apa, lu buatlah lol

edit: just in case nanti amdk say i fitnah orange emperor, not cinaman say one, is one of your angmoh masters say one
Trump Warns Putin Plans to Retaliate 'Very Strongly' Against Ukraine
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-...ine/ar-AA1G67UO
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So you think that if nukes are on the table there's zero alarm from the us administration?
empyreal
post Jun 5 2025, 04:03 PM

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QUOTE(loserguy @ Jun 5 2025, 01:23 PM)
The US and UK are basically washing their hands and staying away from the whole shit show. Frankly, I don't think we are going to see any US retaliation even if Putin decides to bomb the crap out of Kyiv. At most, strongly WORDED statements, saying what a bad boy you are Putin.

Hopefully no nukes. Read what you will from Trump's statement.

edit: Mentioned before this, Ukraine is not under Nato, or any other nuclear umbrella.
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If that's an assessment, then its a poor one. its naive to claim that no one is going to be alarmed at even the threat of the first use of a nuke since ww2.


empyreal
post Jun 5 2025, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(loserguy @ Jun 5 2025, 04:38 PM)
Traditionally, it has been the role of the US to talk these guys down from the brink. Well, the current president didn't even bother to read the rulebook.

Not a single nuclear superpower is interested in extending their nuclear umbrella over Ukraine. Even BFF France is keeping quiet.

So, all benefits with nothing much to lose. Tell me, if you were Putin, what would be the most logical next move? It would already be very good if he just bombs the shit out of Kyiv using conventional weapons.
Don't underestimate the man. It is not easy to remain in power for so long. A pussycat, Putin is not.
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Since youre so convinced that nukes are on the table, tell you what, lets have a 1k bet on whether putin will use nukes in the next two weeks?

People tend to exercise better judgment when their money is on the line.
empyreal
post Jun 5 2025, 06:07 PM

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QUOTE(loserguy @ Jun 5 2025, 05:09 PM)
Not interested. I am not a betting man. Debate it coherently if you can.

Here, have a read of the US envoy's opinion about this, since you would disregard mine. Source is from the Kyiv post if that makes you happy.

‘Ukraine Can Play This Game Too’: Kellogg Warns Drone Strikes on Russian Nuclear Bombers Raise Risk Level
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/53920

edit: here is another article about why Russian shouldn't use nukes written in 2022. hth

Why Hasn’t Putin Gone Nuclear in Ukraine?
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-ha...-ukraine-205893

The problem with this view is that two of the most important reasons against the use of nukes isn't so strong today
1) The US is not promising retaliatory strikes, neither is NATO.
2) Ukraine hit the Russians nuclear strike capability first, so Putin has all the excuse needed.

You should probably look at if nukes are going to be effective and possible fallout for Putin.
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The thing is your assumptions are, as I mentioned earlier, naive. It's not for nothing that both cold war countries refrained from nukes even when they're fighting in absolute wastelands like Afghanistan. And if they're hesitant to nuke 'heathen muslims' in deserted mountains, then they're not going to nuke fellow Slavs in lands whose main value is to grow crops.

But if you insist on this view, then the only thing I can say is that I'll tag you again in two weeks and see if your alarmist assessment proves true.
empyreal
post Jun 5 2025, 10:19 PM

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QUOTE(chaosneo @ Jun 5 2025, 09:38 PM)
i am not sure how many times russian officials and state media threaten nukes on Ukraine and on London lol

even sinking of flagship to bombing of crimean bridge seems to have cross red lines.

i wonder when Ukraine gonna start targeting russia economy lifeline which is oil production again.
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The indicator of whether something really hurt russia, is when they start threatening nukes.

At this point, there's not much value in targeting russian oil production because oil prices dropped low. Apparently with the price cap, russia is selling oil at 50 per barrel when costs are 44 per barrel. Much more useful to target russia's logistics network - which thanks to the recent truck-drone attacks, will be a lot more scrutinised and industry a lot slower.

 

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