For investors in Swiss watch brands — and all high-end watches for that matter — new data is showing that price declines in the secondhand, or used, market will continue.

And that's especially good news for shoppers of Rolex watches, which have been notorious for extreme supply shortages and long waitlists.

In a recent note to clients, Morgan Stanley reported that the WatchCharts Overall Market Index — which tracks a basket of 60 luxury Swiss watches across 10 brands in the secondhand market — fell for the ninth straight quarter in the second quarter ended June 30.

Prices have been falling since the pandemic peak hit in the first quarter of 2022. Current prices in the second quarter fell sequentially compared to the first quarter by 2.1%, and year over year by 1.2%.

“The secondary market decline remains broad-based, with few brands seeing positive performance in the second quarter,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the report.

Morgan Stanley believes the downward pressure on prices will continue throughout the year.

Looking at year-over-year changes in the secondary market, only five brands saw prices rise, including Montblanc (+2.4%) and Hamilton (+2.2%) among the lucky few. High-end brands like A. Lange & Söhne (-5.3%), Breitling (-5.9%), Omega (-6.8%), Rolex (-7.2%), and Audemars Piguet (-12.5%) were among the worst performers.

Secondhand prices matter beyond being a marker of value for specific watches. They can affect prices paid in the primary market, where new watches are sold by authorized dealers (ADs).

Perhaps the most interesting trend to come out of the report: Rolex, the one brand that seemed immune to price and sales pressures, is starting to feel the heat.

It appears that Rolex watch “flippers” — dealers who buy new watches and flip them in another market that pays more — are facing headwinds. That is leading, Morgan Stanley reckons, to increased supplies of new Rolex watches to consumers at the primary, or AD, level.

Morgan Stanley used two factors in determining whether speculation in Rolex watches was abating: the size of the “gray market,” defined as current-production watches listed on the secondary market in brand-new condition, and wait times for specific Rolex watches at ADs.

The analysis found the number of Rolex watches in the gray market has been falling. The bank said declining gray market supply was due to rising retail prices for Rolex watches and falling prices paid for gray market watches, making flipping watches less profitable.

Second, Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts looked at wait times for popular Rolex models. Because data on wait times is limited and hard to tabulate, WatchCharts used data derived from the Rolex community on a subreddit to compute wait times.

Excluding the Rolex Daytona chronograph due to its small sample size, the analysis found improved wait times for certain Rolex sports watches. “The results of the analysis indicate that the Submariner, GMT-Master II, and Explorer collections all saw an improvement in waiting times so far this year, compared to 2023. Furthermore, the GMTMaster II and Explorer waiting times appear to have trended down since 2022,” the report said. Wait times for those models can be seen in the graph above.

In short, reduced gray market supply on the secondary market and improving wait times for popular Rolex sports watches means speculation in the watches is decreasing. And that may be good news for the primary market. It also means, after years and years of buyers being turned away due to lack of supply, that there might actually less demand from Rolex fans in general.

"We think there is generally greater [Rolex] availability on the primary market, and that primary market demand is waning as a result of both decreased speculative purchasing and decreased organic demand," WatchCharts founder and CEO Charles Tian said to Yahoo Finance.

All this means is there are more Rolex watches at the AD level for regular consumers. And for Rolex fans who aren't flippers, it may be finally possible get that 2024 Rolex Submariner in the near future.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rolex-prices...-151919533.html

Hamilton and JLC price increase kek

Cukur .but when can I walk in to collect mine.
I visited nearest hourglass last month.
Sa told me to go home and wait.

Drop price yes. Drop more also nvm. What goes up must come down. What goes down only got 1 way left to go which is up.

JLC price increase most WTF one. Wanted to get a Polaris, but after see the new prices, terus yaoming.jpg and decided to wait until 2nd hand price fall significantly baru decide buy.

So... buy the dip dun red eye?

still patiently wearing my bb58 while waiting lolex to drop price.

Rolex only old fags wear

same like property

epal watch > lolex

oredi say is lou lek lorr... apa salahnya??...

in chinese we call "old smart"

but smart, ayamz dunno la... but definitely old...

No la, friend. Don’t buy at all is best. Now most watch collectors move on to sailing already. Not motor powered yachts but sail on sheets. Motor yachts are so 90s in design.

Go to Barcelona this October if you want to see AC75 class sailing boats in action. 50 knots of power! Haha

it just went from outrageously overpriced to ridiculously overpriced

nothing to see here.. move along

Ur back.

so those buy for goreng, perform worse fhan gold now?

But but how about Cortina Starhill?

How? You managed to get the Rolex or not? From Ms SL

Or you can join me in Europe la, lenglui

GM requested that I visit her family so might as well kill two birds with one stone.

This post has been edited by friedricetheman: Jul 23 2024, 06:56 PM

Maybe…

In my dream la. How I wish I could go Europe also. Enjoy your trip and happy hunting Luca Faloni stuff.

Hush. Don’t expose me here can or not? Haha

By the way, I found Falconeri to be quite okay also. Will be ordering from them next month to compare with my current Luca Faloni and Loro Piana clothes.

This post has been edited by friedricetheman: Jul 23 2024, 07:05 PM

During Rolex bull run, those invest in Rolex are mostly wannabe.

Bullshiet report. Keep calling my SA(KLCC) for newest Explorer, SA janji will be coming this year...even my old supplier at Pavi also janji Blue Sky-Dweller for 3 years now.

Syukur finally got chance.

Okay...my SA will call me the day after tomorrow to collect my wishlist

Eyyy long time no see. How are you?

A friend of mine manage to queue for a Daytona from Rolex boutique. Guess there really is stock now.

But surprisingly VC naik harga. Lol

where to buy?

your friend buy from which AD? stock is always there la. its a matter of they want to give to u or not, aka your spending high enough or not

Singapore Rolex boutique. Don't know which branch

Rose gold. Sgd49k

ppl wear rolex not bcoz of accurate time ya

No. People wear lolex because more syok when fap

Master has spoken

Ugly as hell. So piang

Wow legend in da house

Anyway ayam only got a vintage ori 6694

Saving for probably an old explorer II

Ya old man watch for ayam

Kekwa

WTF!!! you are back!
I thought you …… owai. Welcome back to flex

legen fried man the rice is back !

He's your online idol ah ?

Anyone one know should buy Lolex in Msia or Singapore

Ok la. Been busy working like sheet. Only now middle of year a bit quiet so can play /k a bit.

People are getting rid of their Rolexes because China have made 1:1 replica of most models for less than RM4k. The weight is also similar and the bezel turn is also very very good.

See the photo below. One is real and one is high quality fake. Both same weight and bezel turn is also same but there is only one flaw that I could spot in person. Can you guess the flaw? Let me know if you can find the flaw.

fuuuuuu lejen is cumbing bekkkkk

yes, those are the ones RtK can afford, but won't get lolex tho

If pre own, Singapore... more choices to view around.. malaysia need to go in ask. Price it depends more or less the same.

This post has been edited by JON97: Jul 24 2024, 12:15 AM

Hmm, I don't recall the Bezel line is so far from the 10 for submariner.. So I guess the green one is fake?

Maybe it is the camera angle, but Starbucks's dial circles are smaller..

This post has been edited by JON97: Jul 24 2024, 12:31 AM

After the thunderstorm the clouds cleared.

It’s not a Starbucks. See the lugs and bracelet taper. It’s a Hulk. The dial is green but due to the lighting, it sometimes look black.

This post has been edited by friedricetheman: Jul 24 2024, 01:09 AM

It seems many PRC Rolex resellers are overstocked, not buying, price is likely to drop further.

Those use fake products may fool others but could never fool themselves. When could afford will eventually buy genuine.

Nah. Even genuine owners mostly either kept what they have or sold their collection already. No point when the dupe also keeps time to within respectable specs too. I believe my PRC client told me that his fakes kept time to within 1 minute deviation per month or so.

Also, buying genuine doesn’t mean you are not getting ripped off. The Dior and Armani scandal really shed a lot of light on the luxury industry.

Dior bags only $57 to make but charging customers several thousands

Wearing a mechanical watch is not about keeping time, digital watch is more accurate.

Those who could afford, no need reason to buy. Those couldn't afford, have 101 excuses not to buy.

mr. mercedes aka expert pundek is an old fag what

You meant to say “those who can afford, no reason to buy”.

Even I no longer collect high end watches and moved on to sailing. I used to collect watches but am disgusted by watch companies greed in milking their clients.

All brands e.g hermes, lurssen, bugatti, pagani, etc milk their clients.

no buy don't red eye

buy buy buy

That’s why for clothes buy for the fabrics, not for the logo.

Look for cashmere (long hair, not cheap low grade cashmere), linen, vegetable tan calf leather and silk (mulberry). Go for natural fibers.

Avoid labels as those make you look like walking advertisement board for brands. If you want to advertise, advertise your passion or hobby instead like merch from Michelin star eateries that you have been to before or sailing teams etc.

This post has been edited by friedricetheman: Jul 24 2024, 10:17 AM

My guess HULK is the fake one

Any reason why? The dial and bezel color is actually correct, it’s just the lighting. Hulk change color under different ambient lighting

the text 1000ft - 300m on the Hulk seems different from the black subs, but hard to tell from the picture resolution.

The font actually is different for different batches even from Rolex factories as Rolex has a few dial manufacturing facilities.

Malaysia watch forum on dial font difference

i seen some videos about china's watchmaking, seems like they are able to make very good movements already, not as good as those swiss ones but maybe got 70 or 80% of the quality already

and much cheaper than swiss watch also

Ever-since I'm using a smartphone I no longer wear a watch....it hv become redundant.

Their clone 3235 movements, some parts are interchangeable with genuine parts. The winding rotor is interchangeable which is a big thing as the real rotor is more efficient. The only tell is the balance wheel, where they still use conventional swan neck regulators hidden from sight while real 3235 are free sprung with microstella gold screws.

All in all, i can say that the Swiss dug their own grave by overcharging for what is basically a hobbyist item with the availability of cheap precision China CNC machinery that are capable of micro engineering.

This post has been edited by friedricetheman: Jul 24 2024, 11:58 AM

& u tot ppl tat wear this lvl of watch is to tell time?

In the beginning, people buy these watches because they collect them. But due to the greed of Swiss manufacturers, they started hyping up these hobbies as investments and stupid laymen started to buy into their crap. Then the price crept up and watch hobbyist and collectors start to get disillusioned with their hobbies and left.

First wave of collectors left when some Rolex dealers started their premium pricing strategy where you need to top up 10%-20% from MSRP as under-counter money to buy one from the boutique.

Second wave left when some Rolex dealers started selling through the backdoor to grey dealers while lying to their VIP customers that they are on the list for those sports models. Most of them got a few SS sports models but not in the color or configuration that they wanted.

Finally, the nail in the coffin was when some Rolex dealers started to request their sales associates to not sell any popular models to their long time customers but instead pile them with useless junk that the grey dealers refuse to bulk buy. That’s when you see DJ in ugly Wimbledon dials and diamond encrusted stuff being touted to customers as no grey dealers wanted to accept them. This is when a lot of long time salespersons started to leave or quit these establishments due to having to turn away their old time customers and feeling bad about it.

This is basically greed.

Our taiko here is pissed at SWG..(just kidding..lolx)

Unfortunately, that’s how things work..

Hahaha. Not pissed at SWG or anything but the business practice of some companies. My long time contacts left and spill the beans. We all kena played like sohai.

Haha, now your AD moved to bigger units and one need to make appointment else they ain’t opening the door. What the…..lolx

registered interest with all the AD also no phone call at all one.
so, even though they say more supplies, doesnt mean they have stock. there is still long lead-time, just shorterned only.
price in grey market might go down, but still is higher than RRSP la.

lejen taiko coming back.

That’s to make it seem like it’s exclusive or something. Perceived exclusivity is 50% of the luxury game. Make something “rare” and difficult to get, and soon the M40 will want it.

Luxury is about the materials used. Not name brands. Exotic materials are luxury.

sound like the same tactic where girls play hard to get. hahaha

Girls who are attracted to you don’t play hard to get. You are either a spare tire or she’s waiting for someone better to come along if she’s playing hard to get with you.

Even if a girl plays “hard to get”, she will still answer your WhatsApp within minutes and always make time for you when you ask to meet up. She just won’t make the first move. That’s the girl’s version of hard to get.

i dont get the concept of expensive watches actually...fama also hype about these but for me a rm25 pasar malam watch can tell time is enough

1 of these rolex's can put down payment for a condo alrdy which i do not own

are these watches really good for investment?

still got people wear watch?

Next generation, watch will be like walkman/DVD/VCR....

Expensive watches is a hobby. Not an investment. Anyone who tells you that it’s an investment is mostly bullshit.

Expensive watches also used to be money launderer’s choice when it comes to transporting large sum of money across borders undetected. Nowadays, there are better forms of money laundering like a business. During Covid time, money cannot be laundered through businesses so they use watches. Buy at inflated prices from grey dealers and then later on resell back to a different grey dealer in another town or somewhere else.

This post has been edited by friedricetheman: Jul 24 2024, 01:21 PM

+1.

Aiks? I remember you also collected pens?

Buy high sell low...well done for make profit owaii

It really depends on your circle, if everyone around you wears a luxury watch, then it becomes ‘normal’ to have one. Deep down we are all human, and wish to have a higher status compared to our peers.

For the rich, they already have condos and cars and all the basic necessities they need, so what else is there to buy? Luxury.

Yeah but stopped already. Funnel everything to other hobbies and pursuits. Am just using the pens I have. I probably won’t have to buy another pen for the rest of my life.

They are good as a store of value, but are generally poor investments (outside of a select few pieces).

It's easier to store and insure a watch than it is to keep $10+k in cash.

Most rich people stopped wearing luxury watches since after the pandemic. If your circle wears them, then wear it if it makes you fit into their circle. Luxury watches doesn’t mean higher status. It just means you spend a lot of money on something that you like.

welcome back nasi goreng, scare die me, tot where you missing all these years
alhamdulilah you safe n sound

Got hit with a few major life changing experience. But managed to ride out the storm.

Your definition of ‘rich’ and ‘most’ differs from most people because you are super rich. If I meet someone on the street wearing a Rolex, AP or PP, it would be quite safe for me to assume that they are rich.

I am also quite certain that there are more ‘rich’ people wearing luxury watches, than the ones that don’t.

all well now then ok, family all ok I wish

Not really lo. Like I said, life changing experience. One of my kids diagnosed with stage 2 growth in cortex area last year among other things.

sorry to hear that

That’s not the worst, bro. I PM you later

Rolex pancing game stronk.

hksgmy want to ask you a question. Would you recommend gamma knife or chemotherapy after a semi successful resection that only removed 70%. The neurologist and neurosurgeon cannot decide which is the safest route for young children.

This post has been edited by friedricetheman: Jul 24 2024, 03:00 PM

Amoi more impressed with my Apple Watch

all the best to you

AP and PP maybe.

Rolex maybe not.

waiting for 2nd hand JLC is the correct way, no point pay so much...
unless that JLC is to commemorate certain lifetime achievement / milestone event

For milestones, just get Vacheron Constantin instead of Jaeger LeCoultre, if you are dipping into the preowned market and don’t mind not getting an Overseas. VC takes a huge depreciation hit in the preowned market.

That's because you use a watch to tell time. Expensive watches are used to tell others how valuable their time is.

Okay, bullshit aside. It's a hobby.

Like how some people willing to spend millions on pokemon card, others spend it on watches, cars, pens, etc.