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 Country Heights Grower Scheme (CHGS), anyone heard before?

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gark
post Sep 12 2013, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(suewong85 @ Sep 11 2013, 10:57 PM)
re: mills, we will run the mills ourselves of course. it is a progression of diversifying downstream. we do not just 'sell plots', we are a plantation company.

OER - we do aim to hit the industry average of 20%, which is not unachievable.

re: 24 tons/ha - we do aim to hit that figure some time during our harvesting stage. of course, we will not hit that right off the bat. these figures depends on things like tree profile, etc. in our case, we are confident of hitting it eventually because of our fertile land. our land is  surrounded by other productive plantations, all who are highly profitable too.

RE: replanting - it is also in our prospectus that investors can vote for the option to replant after the end of our scheme too if they feel that they do not want to sell the plantation.
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Recycling all the old information again and again like a broken clockwork. You still have not proved that your scheme is safe, you are mere doing selective comparison against one company and or another scheme. SPAC have investor protection and yours does not, period. Anyway I dont like SPAC as well as I think they are bunch of con men as well. The plantation next to you is highly profitable becase they did not buy OVERPRICED land. And robbing peter to pay paul is already proven in your own words.

Let cut to the chase. Lets use all the figures you have supplied.

You have mentioned 24 t/ha, although peak production of palm oil is at age 8-14, younger and older than that you will have a decline. Never mind assume your trees are in forever peak production. tongue.gif

1 ha = 24 tons/yr = 9.712 tons/ acre = 2.428 tons / plot

Lets say your cash cost (manpower, fertilizer, trimming, utilities, transportation etc) is very efficient at RM 1,500/ton (Better than 90% of listed plantation out there). In before you say your worker super efficient (maybe work for free?) and can buy fertilizer below market price. rolleyes.gif

This cost is excluding administration cost, you do charge management fees, but lets say your Dato is feeling very charitable and doing all the management for free. rclxms.gif

2.428 ton FFB x 20% OER = 0.4856 ton CPO

Assume you are able get MAX market price (In reality you cant cause you have other logistic/transportation expenses) which today is 2,350 per ton. This time Dato provide the transportation for FREE. Also the mill have not take the cut yet.. also assume FREE icon_rolleyes.gif

Your net earning per ton CPO will be 2,350-1,500 = RM 850 per ton

1 Plot = 0.4856 ton x 850 = RM 412.76

Cost of 1 plot = RM 8000

Net earning yield = RM 412.76/RM 8000 = 5.15%

If you remove the other cost such as management, logistics etc , your yield will be likely below 3%.

So answer, this where is your projected 7%-23% dividend?

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 12 2013, 10:23 AM
gark
post Sep 12 2013, 03:51 PM

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QUOTE
SPACs - investor protection? Tell that to the investors of the 72 SPACs that have been liquidated since 2004 worldwide. There are risks in every product. all products have successes and failures cases, be it SPACs, interest schemes, hedge funds, PEs, mutual funds, unit trust, etc. You dont like SPACs? Well, some people do. some institutional investors do too. everyone has different risk appetite. if you are so risk averse, perhaps you should just hide your $ under your bed or put it in a FD, because banks totally will never collapse right?

again, the 'robbing peter to pay paul' part is merely your words, not mine. this is financial structuring of a product, not any different to other industries where securitization can happens. you can also see this in real estate where there are concepts like DIBS, or 2 years 7% rental income guarantee, free legal, SPA, etc. All things are of course priced in. This is a legal sweetener. Nothing wrong about that.


No I am not risk adverse, I am merely pointing out SPAC have more investor protection, I do not necessary favor it. Do you know how many share farming scheme has been liquidated in Malaysia? I am also pointing out investing in LISTED PLANTATION is cheaper/better than share farming.

YOU are misleading the INVESTOR by telling them 7% is a DIVIDEND, if it is not DIVIDEND please kindly delete it from all your brochures. Legal sweetener as it may be but you are miss selling. Miss selling is against the law... nod.gif

QUOTE
re: your calculations, i disagree with many parts. many of the extra costs u add are already priced into the break even point / operating margins.

Cost of production is not RM 1500. It is lower than that. You are making things up, like "better than 90% of listed plantations", just like your " bnm warned against this" allegation. You are also assuming that we wont try to improve to reduce cost by improving efficiency.

"CPO futures prices are not likely to break the RM1,800 ring-git per tonne mark and even the most inefficient oil palm plantation companies producing CPO within the RM1,500 per tonne levels will be able to stay profit-able in these bearish market conditions.”
http://www.theborneopost.com/2013/03/17/pa...ish-or-bullish/

"Currently, the cost of production (COP) among well managed oil palm plantation companies in Peninsular Malaysia would be about RM1,300 to RM1,400 per tonne of CPO."


Ok let's reuse your figure of 1,300 per ton since you say you are sooooooooo efficient (your words not mine!) & 5% management fees. BTW please check the cost now as fertilizer is priced in USD, the report you have is 6 months old. Try also to check the cost of production on SOP and Sarawak Plantations. tongue.gif

Net profit per ton = RM2350-RM1300 = RM 1050

Net income on 1 acre = 0.4856 x 1050 = 509.88

Minus 5% management fees = 509.88 x 0.95 = RM 484.386

Yield = 484.386 / 8000 = 6.05%

It is STILL BELOW your projected earnings of 7%-23%, what other explanation do you have? The maths simply do not match...

QUOTE
See Nomura's  Asean Palm Oil Research, April 9 report.

Our projected returns are tied to palm oil prices. If palm oil prices are high, then investors will get a high return too. We will return 100% of our net audited profits, minus a 5% management fee. simple as that. nothing unrealistic or overreaching.


Hello the price is for RM 2,800 per ton now is selling at RM 2,350 per ton.. how to compare. And I agree that the ROIC is achievable IF you do not buy overpriced land. The higher capital you put in (ie overpriced land) the LOWER the ROIC, no need for me to write example right....

And how can be 100% sure palm oil price will be higher in the future and if higher then how much? If you can predict 100% better don't be salesman/woman go bet on CPO futures and make millions. And tell your clients the same. icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 12 2013, 04:00 PM
gark
post Sep 13 2013, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(suewong85 @ Sep 12 2013, 10:14 PM)
the word we used is 7% guaranteed returns. once again, you are not referring to any of our materials / prospectus, but talking from your own misconceptions / prejudice.

re: investing in shares, again, i have pointed out, that 1- share prices are volatile, and dividends are lower.  the investment profile is complete separate, as these are separate type of products.

the projected earnings is based on CPO prices being RM 2500 - RM 4000. This again, along with a projected earning chart, is clearly stated in our marketing materials. if prices go below that, then we can only pay lower dividends. Once again, you are just talking without referring to our actual materials.

again and again, i have pointed out articles, research reports, papers, etc to refute your words. we cannot please everyone. there will always be people who believe in a product, as well as naysayers.

re: future palm oil prices, i of course cannot make any predictions. what i can say though, is that we are optimistic about the potential of palm oil, based on the supply and demand of palm oil. palm oil is widely used in everything, and is cheaper than other vegetable oil. fast developing countries are increasing their per capita consumption of palm oil as they become more prosperous.

palm oil however, cannot be planted everywhere in the world. cultivatable palm oil land in this region is dwindling, forcing companies to go to foreign countries (png, liberia, colombia, etc) where they do not have local knowledge (political, labour issues, etc) to palm. initiatives like biodiesel (b10 in malaysia, indonesia) will also help to support prices. other initiatives like the POIC are also allowing plantations to get revenue from palm oil waste like empty fruit brunches (EFB) for the biomass industry. also, in the country, organizations like MPOB and Pemandu are also working to improve yields and OER - see the ETP report.  therefore, we are optimistic about the palm oil industry.
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So in grand conclusion... for all potential buyers out there.

1. The 7% guaranteed returns in paid for by your own pocket, which is not an actual RETURN, from the sale of overpriced land. In this case the buyers actually LOSE income ability (lets say if the 45% can put into FD) and provide interest free loan to the scheme.

2. This scheme with the projected return of 7%-23% ONLY APPLICABLE IF the CPO price goes up, if it goes down or stay flat, well tough luck. This makes the return somewhat very volatile instead of the wording used in the brochure to imply consistent income.

I am still in the opinion (my view only of course) that if one is to invest in a LISTED palm oil plantation you can get better value for your money, capital gain and more investor protection together more accountability. It is a safer and cheaper alternative per ha compared to share farming scheme.

And oh, if suewong85 predict the palm oil prices can go to RM4k/ton with her optimistic view on future returns, you can make a huge killing by investing in a listed palm oil plantation, as their profit would easily triple. (If profit triple, wonder what will happen to their share price) wink.gif

Anyway nice exchanging ideas with you, and let the buyers makes the best decision, since it's their money anyway. They have every right to lose it. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 13 2013, 09:58 AM
gark
post Sep 13 2013, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Sep 13 2013, 08:12 AM)

I would not say that land for palm oil cultivation is dwindling with respect to demand. In fact, I think not

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There is going to be at least 300k-400k ha of matured palm oil coming out of Kalimantan every year for the next 5-6 years. Most refineries in Indonesia is currently running at 30%-40% because of softening demand from China & India.

Only the most efficient growers and most efficient refineries will survive for the 2-3 years, until palm oil demand is back on track.

I am however very optimistic on the business is growing in the future, but not all plantations are invest-able. Only those with consistently high FFB yield & OER with favorable soil & tree maturity profile will do well.
gark
post Sep 13 2013, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Sep 13 2013, 10:10 AM)
Yes....will be oversupply at this rate IMO.

I can help them with their OER.........  biggrin.gif  at least 0.5% more
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Even 0.1% more OER makes a big difference. laugh.gif
gark
post Sep 14 2013, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Sep 13 2013, 11:25 PM)
It sound to attractive for such scheme, guarantee 7% for the first 5 years, i can brain why the logic they giving out like this

Lend money from bank = BLR + 1% = 7.6% (If i'm not mistaken for agricultural land and allowed for 60% financing only)

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The 7% is paid out from the customers pocket as confirmed by the scheme consultant.

You pay 100%, 35% of your money (7%x5) will distribute back to you gradually in 5 years. 10% keep by bank. 55% apparently is the cost for land and planting.

You are effectively giving them 0% interest loan for 5 years. wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 14 2013, 10:26 AM

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