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 Home solar 4 months in.

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Drian
post Oct 3 2023, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(mushigen @ Oct 3 2023, 10:53 AM)
You need 5 years to break even. Imo, it should not be considered as ROI during the first 5 years. Don't forget to add the opportunity cost of the RM47000 you coughed up.

After this, baru can consider ROI.
*
It is ROI.
But the ROI needs to minus off any maintainence fee /interest (if borrowing from bank) and asset depreciation.


TS doesn't include Asset depreciation so it's kind of flawed


This post has been edited by Drian: Oct 3 2023, 12:45 PM
Drian
post Oct 3 2023, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(SurpriseZZZZZ @ Oct 3 2023, 10:52 AM)
Do you know the NEM only valid for 10 years? Your "return" has an expiry date. Year 1-5 trying to recover, then Year 6-10 you earn some. Year 11 onwards, you are on your own.
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Partially true only. At year 11 you can only offset day usage but no longer night time, so your returns is roughly half.


Drian
post Oct 3 2023, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(am_i_rulez @ Oct 3 2023, 10:55 AM)
5 years ROI, quite good if there is no additional charges and can run another 5 years.

How about repair and maintenance?
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Biggest unknown is inverter. That's why need warranty + reputable brand for this.

Solar panel being passive will last very long.


This post has been edited by Drian: Oct 3 2023, 12:26 PM
Drian
post Oct 3 2023, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(cloudwan0 @ Oct 3 2023, 11:15 AM)
first, you need to take out 50k to install
second, you only started, what about maintenance? how long it can run without issue?
third, most ppl electric bill around 200~300, why take out 50k up front
the 50k can pay 13 years of RM300 electric bill.
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If your electric bill is rm300, don't use solar.
You haven't reach the highest tarrif level yet.




Drian
post Oct 3 2023, 12:40 PM

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QUOTE(ZforZebra @ Oct 3 2023, 12:31 PM)
47k. my tnb bill less than rm150 a month.
given i use rm150 every month.
need 26 years to ROI?
no thanks
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Of course at rm150 you haven't reach the highest tariff level yet.
But why do you assume people are asking you to install?


Drian
post Oct 3 2023, 02:12 PM

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QUOTE(mushigen @ Oct 3 2023, 01:39 PM)
47k/36=RM1306 pm.

Put in epf at 5.5%, you'll earn rm4208 interest and will have RM5,1224 after 36 months.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

After this 36 months, for the next 7 years, you will earn rm23,989 in interest giving you the total rm75213.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

For year 11, you will earn RM4242 interest, translating to RM353 per month.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


If you're not able to extend NEM, your PV must offset RM350 pm to break even. Don't forget that your EPF money is still there for you to withdraw, whereas your PV and its peripheral hardware are considered sunk costs and are basically worthless if you decide to give up on it (no/low resale value). Will it add to your house market value? Not sure.
This write-off is not taken into account in the untung-rugi calculation. It essentially means at the wnd of Year 10, your TNB savings is just RM15k (at current tariffs and consumption) more than your EPF balance, but your epf continues to grow while your solar panel system continues to deteriorate in terms of performance and resale value while requiring maintenance.
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You need to factor in the additional 15k savings.
The 15K additional for TNB have to be accounted for

so it is rm350 - (5.5% of RM15k/12) . You can say that the additional savings is reinvested in EPF.


Drian
post Oct 3 2023, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(azarimy @ Oct 3 2023, 02:01 PM)
My monthly bill currently is around RM200. I'm not sure if getting into solar is a worthy venture.

Is there any option if my consumption is just RM200?
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no don't waste your time with solar.

Drian
post Oct 3 2023, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(bee88 @ Oct 3 2023, 02:39 PM)
Let me help clarify this. That’s why don’t go for string.  Go for modular plug and play micro. Anytime can upgrade capacity.
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There is nothing stopping you from use string and micro together.


Drian
post Oct 3 2023, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(bee88 @ Oct 3 2023, 03:24 PM)
If u add a micro on top of the string, u are basically paying for a new system.  But if ur intention is just to add another inverter and 4 panel, getting a micro from the beginning will help save the process and wiring.
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It is just wiring. The old system can use string while the new panels uses micro. Why do you say it is a new system?




Drian
post Oct 3 2023, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(bee88 @ Oct 3 2023, 03:56 PM)
Coz u need totally  new set of wiring? So if u install a micro on top of string, there is nothing that you can use back. It’s like new installation. 

And u need a new db and such.  That’s what I mean a total new system. It is not like u can connect both together.
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When you install a new solar panel it is usually in a new area of the roof which requires its own wiring regardless if it is string or microinverter.

1 string all the solar panels should be on the same orientation for max yield.
Drian
post Oct 3 2023, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(razr_sped @ Oct 3 2023, 04:37 PM)
just to share mine, 800kwh average monthly usage which is RM341 per tnb calculator. Installed a 7.6kwp system for around 28k, using huawei invertor which after NEM could install with its battery system of up to 15kw. Current bill average around rm40, but my petrol bill also went down a bit as I had a phev after solar installation.

No upfront cost but i took EPP for 24month. If the tariff increased in coming budget, then the ROI could be shorter or would be less affected. Main target is to get the bill to using only subsidize rate as i don't see a point to not utilize it, but on top of that I can utilize AC as needed esp. on hot days. Currently I have a 2.5hp running from 8pm - 6am daily.

Quoting from earlier comments, these are money need to be spent anyway to TNB, must as well do something to it and in future get a minor battery for backup in the event of power failure. So, if purely numbers it doesnt make sense, but i'm not good with finance tongue.gif

user posted image
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What is the huawei inverter specs?

Are they undersizing it.

You might have shading issues. My 6.8Kw system produces more kwhr per month.


This post has been edited by Drian: Oct 3 2023, 05:31 PM
Drian
post Oct 4 2023, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(netflix2019 @ Oct 3 2023, 05:36 PM)
Dunno why u so sceptical. Tell me which investment can nett u 20% return p.a.
ROI in 4 years is insanely attractive for a investment. Even property also cannot beat.

No battery required because government incentive by giving NEM (a.k.a buy back excess energy u generated and offset your monthly bill in return). I think u seriously need to read up and ask around those who already installed. I asked, both my uncles installed back in 2010 until now no need pay any $$$ for replacement parts or repair. They never bother to hire ppl to clean also for 10 years and energy generated still up to 90% so far. Both of them ROI in 6 years.
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When you put returns like that it will be compared with other investment class. eg:- 5.5% epf , 3% FD, 6% ASNB but you cannot really compare them that way,


If you put 47k in FD, 3% for 5 years you get 47k + (3%^5*47k).
The 47K that you put in is unchanged after 5 years

If you put in 47K in Solar and you claim 20% return.
By right at the end of 5 years you get 47K +(20%^5*47k) but you don't get it.
You can't sell the solar panels and your solar panels are not worth 47k anymore. . That is asset depreciation.

So technically, if you include asset depreciation. The first 5-6 years is 0% and then only after that is 20%.
You don't understand that you cannot get back the capital that you put in.






Drian
post Oct 4 2023, 10:00 AM

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QUOTE(etan26 @ Oct 4 2023, 09:53 AM)
If I can get 800 monthly or 9,600 yearly against my investment of 38,000 already yields 25%, apa lagi awak mau?  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif

After 4 years already ROI 38k . . .. another 4 years another ROI 38k, tell me what FD/EPF can give me the same?
Bear in mind this could last 25 years although the returns will dropped 10-20% ...
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QUOTE

After 4 years already ROI 38k . . .. another 4 years another ROI 38k, tell me what FD/EPF can give me the same?
All can even more.

EPF,5.5% after 4 years
Capital : 47K
Return : 8.75K
Total :- 55.74K



Solar after 4 years
Capital :0 k
Return :- 38400
Total:- 38400

Again you don't understand that for FD, capital doesn't change.
Drian
post Oct 4 2023, 01:46 PM

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QUOTE(netflix2019 @ Oct 4 2023, 10:21 AM)
You can install less solar panel so the cost will be lesser. iianm it is 16k for around rm200 yield. lol why everyone keep stuck in the perpetual loop of " NOT EVERYONE HAVE RM800 BILL!!!". You can just lower your system to match your monthly bill. TNB will require u to do it anyway, they wont let u generate more than your current electric bill. No one is close minded here. chill.
Again u don't understand ppl who installed solar already know they not going to shift new house in the next 10-20 years. It generate income as long as there is a sun and someone living inside the house.

It's less capital and much less hassle than owning a property that generate rm800 rental. No tax even. The only downside? I lose it all in housefire or tornado. But still at that point losing 47k should be the least of my worry. lol
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It's about the accuracy of the ROI term.

If someone tells you FD ROI 15%
or Solar ROI 20%.


Which is a better investment?
From numbers alone Solar is a bigger number therefore it has better ROI right?
But that is not true. Why does FD ROI of 15% outperform Solar ROI of 20%?
Drian
post Oct 4 2023, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(yeapsc73 @ Oct 4 2023, 12:37 PM)
two ways to look at it.

if u keep the money in epf, u still need to pay tnb bill right? say u withdraw money every month to pay 800 to TNB, how much of this 47k will be left after 4 years, or how many years the 47k totally depleted by using it to pay tnb bill?

if u use the 47k to install solar pv, say 800 tnb bill saving per month, what u can do is to invest the 800 into something that can give u 5.5% return, i dont think thats difficult to find such investment (say just buy maybank shares lah that give annual dividend 6 to 7%), in 4 years, u will get about 44k in investment, in 8 years, your investment value will be about 97k, while if the money still in epf, that 47k will increase to about 73k in 8 years, the gap will grow larger and larger
*
I stand corrected, after looking at your post I realise that still need to pay TNB bill for EPF case which is not accounted for.

I made a separate post below.





Drian
post Oct 4 2023, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(bee88 @ Oct 4 2023, 02:32 PM)
Okay.  To answer my own question.

Scenario a
By the end of year 10, will have rm81360.59

Based on interest 5.5 percent.

Scenario b

End of 10 years.
Will have  RM 126,806.07

Based on 5.5 interest

And a 47k system Solar that still generate but depreciated in value or no value.
Did I calculate any wrong here?
*
I stand corrected, I did not take into account that the electricity still need to be paid for EPF case.
Basically the moment once the gains from EPF cannot cover the electricity bill, you cannot rely on compounding value to beat solar case.

user posted image

This post has been edited by Drian: Oct 4 2023, 04:03 PM
Drian
post Oct 4 2023, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(etan26 @ Oct 4 2023, 09:53 AM)
If I can get 800 monthly or 9,600 yearly against my investment of 38,000 already yields 25%, apa lagi awak mau?  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif

After 4 years already ROI 38k . . .. another 4 years another ROI 38k, tell me what FD/EPF can give me the same?
Bear in mind this could last 25 years although the returns will dropped 10-20% ...
*
I stand corrected , I did not put in electricity bill in EPF case which causes it to skew towards other investment.
Drian
post Oct 5 2023, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(razr_sped @ Oct 4 2023, 04:31 PM)
this is a little over-simplified with the assumption of 47k upfront, for most solar user it will be usually EPP of 2-5yrs card dependent.
using the same logic to gradually increase the capital over the same period, you will not get 2.5k. Furthermore using epf as benchmark the dividend given also depends on when the funds goes into epf pool so it is even much lesser when partial capital funds are being inputed over the same 2-5yr period.

user posted image
so using same way of the first 5yr where the amount is contributed to investment instrument with 5.5% (i shouldnt use epf cos that cant be taken out till 55yo) by the end of the 5yrs, it will be a little ahead with 4.8k, but then for the next 10yrs with the expectation of 15 years cycle, i could still put this extra which i dont pay to tnb now.
i'm also not using the invested fund to pay tnb as calculation, meaning one will need even more disposable income to sustain the ROI.

user posted image
and if i have 47k upfront, then same result as yours with year 6 running out of fund if i dont put into solar.
this is of course provided after completing the EPP repayment the extra that i dont pay EPP/tnb is also put into investment instrument for the total course.

user posted image
to put the field even, for the first 5yrs i'll also put in the same amount per the EPP as i should have that extra disposable income (as otherwise i wouldnt be able to pay the EPP); which by yr14 i would run out of funds.
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QUOTE
so using same way of the first 5yr where the amount is contributed to investment instrument with 5.5% (i shouldnt use epf cos that cant be taken out till 55yo) by the end of the 5yrs, it will be a little ahead with 4.8k, but then for the next 10yrs with the expectation of 15 years cycle, i could still put this extra which i dont pay to tnb now.
i'm also not using the invested fund to pay tnb as calculation, meaning one will need even more disposable income to sustain the ROI.
If you don't take invested fund to pay TNB as if you take from another source , it means the amount of capital used is higher , which means it no longer is 47k but 47k + extra money to pay TNB bill.

I'm trying to make it apple and apples as much as possible, you have 47K money and 9.4k electricity expense every year. Which would come up at the top?

This post has been edited by Drian: Oct 5 2023, 12:18 PM
Drian
post Oct 5 2023, 06:41 PM

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QUOTE(brkli @ Oct 5 2023, 02:40 PM)
lel.. how solar can "fixed ROI"? everyday sunny? solar panel efficiency will stay the same throughout the 5 years? no wear and tear?
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Year 5 should be around 95% so it can start at 9500 and end with 9025 at year 5.

It's just simple modification to the excel sheet with a panel degradation model but it is pointless when at year 10 for EPF side , you already have to come out with 35K extra money for electricity.
The gap is already big enough to show the winner.

This post has been edited by Drian: Oct 5 2023, 06:49 PM
Drian
post Oct 5 2023, 06:44 PM

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QUOTE(vin6 @ Oct 5 2023, 01:22 PM)
Remember your sheet shows after 10 years you cant sell back because nem contract is over (not sure if government will continue or extend confirm have to reapply).
Take note - ppl who did their homework abt NEM soalr already know after 10 years they buy batteries and store access energy for night use. This will also consider as saving already but upfront cost would be battery .

Currently estimate price for 5kwh = RM5k-6k (can get cheaper , battery and solar prices keeps dropping).

Average we need at least 10kwh per house depending on lood/usage.
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That is true but at year 10 , investment side shows -37k which means additional 37k from the pocket.



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