10 years ago, the
footballing meta was possession inspired by Barcelona. Today, it is pressing. Now in every PL game, we see the high press being deployed. Rare is the sight of teams just sitting passively at the halfway line and not putting any pressure on the defenders when they have the ball. Football evolves, every tactic is met by a counter-tactic given enough time.
This season, I think the next evolution we will see on the pitch is the
deployment of the long ball. Feel free to quote me on this and laugh if it isn't at season end.
But thing usage of the long ball is not in the traditional sense, but as a counter to the high press. Teams use trigger points to start the press when the ball is played out. Forward passes are blocked, and even side passes in some cases. One team will try to work it up, the other team will try force them into turning over possession. As they press, more players are committed higher. The ball eventually is worked back to the GK and under pressure, he boots it long and chances are possession is lost.
But what if the GK is technically sound and is able to arrow 30 - 40 yard passes with accuracy under pressure? A rare player indeed. So now you have a situation where the opposition team has commited many players into a forward position, leaving their backline light. What do you need if you have a technically capable GK to pass it out? A big striker capable of receiving the ball under pressure, retaining possession and knocking it on for quicker players.
When ETH said it is obvious why we need a striker, this is how I interpret it.
In this dynamic, Haaland is much more valuable than Mbappe. And this is an option we do not currently have. Though if fit, Hojlund perhaps can be that player. He stands at 1.91M tall, so we can make an argument that with physical conditioning and technical training, he can be that player. Oddly enough, we did have such a player in the recent past. In the 2017 Europa final, we faced an Ajax team well drilled in pressing hoping they can turn over possession near our box and generate chances. Mourinho's gameplan in the final was to not try to play the ball out, but to send long balls out to the chest of Marouane Fellaini. And he was capable to taking the ball down so United started our attacks in the Ajax half. If we had Fellaini today, I'd park him in the number 9 spot as a counterpress passing outlet.
All our players today in attack are not physical nor big. Antony, Sancho, Fernandes. Don't even bring up Garnacho, send a long ball towards Garnacho and we are sure of losing possession. We have no press breaking pass even though Onana can make such a pass.
Back to Hojlund. If he comes back fit, I am expecting him to be more effective as a passing outlet and then bringing our other players into the game. Rather than scoring 20+ goals this season. It should help our game.
And I expect to see more long passes (> 30 yards) from GKs to outfielders by the top teams.