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 USD/MYR and SGD/MYR

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AVFAN
post Feb 21 2024, 09:40 AM

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RM breaking new lows every day.

congrats to USD, SGD, gold holders.

even viet dong is gaining big time against RM.

the trend will continue as nobody seems interested to explain the real reasons, let alone how to deal with it!
AVFAN
post Feb 21 2024, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(CommodoreAmiga @ Feb 21 2024, 09:52 AM)
The problem is, there is no solution. Either they raise interest rates to follow US, which will alienate all their B40 voters bank. Regardless which gov, none have shown to have any idea to improve the country's competitiveness or a vision. Best they can do is potong subsidy and introduce tax. Can't touch civil servants also as they are another voters bank.

I am moving as much money out from Malaysia as possible now. Really scared, no joke.
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u r enlightened! biggrin.gif

if u read the news about RM dives, u can see the fellas are avoiding touching the crux; just beat around the bush, blame the sky or the moon.

so, u already know the continuous trajectory.
AVFAN
post Feb 21 2024, 10:14 AM

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QUOTE(CommodoreAmiga @ Feb 21 2024, 10:01 AM)
Regret didn't move more money when it was slight above RM4 like 2-3 years back. cry.gif
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it is very painful esp for those seniors living off savings... rm1000 becomes rm500 effectively.

the smarter/luckier ones wud have parked at least a portion in FX denominated assets at the right time.
AVFAN
post Feb 21 2024, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(silentsurfer @ Feb 21 2024, 10:18 AM)
still worth moving to sgd now? kept waiting for sgd to go down but it only gets worse.
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QUOTE(CommodoreAmiga @ Feb 21 2024, 10:22 AM)
Not waiting anymore. Even if it goes back up little bit, it will only go down eventually. Pumping more to USD, SGD and cryptos now. 10 years from now. You think RM will go back to RM4 or likely above RM5? See this country with the type of people running the gov and the type of vote banks. You think it will change for the better or worse? RM 1.5 Trillion debt now. 10 years down the road, i bet > RM2 Trillion already.
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herein lies the problem.

if u look at history, RM has been declining like forever.

but at every point, it's natural to think it will rebound "soon".

yet, there has been no turn, ever.

so, u can figure for next 10, 20 years.

AVFAN
post Feb 21 2024, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(CommodoreAmiga @ Feb 21 2024, 11:38 AM)
If got reversal, then it's time to quickly move out your RM. Eventually it will hit lower low and any reversal wont go back to previous high points.
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I think many r now waiting for minor rebound to buy something incl gold. When us cut rates, unting besar la...!
AVFAN
post Feb 21 2024, 11:24 PM

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these 2 articles explain why SGD is so strong, why RM is so weak.

is anybody doing anything?

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...it-to-1998-lows
https://www.nst.com.my/business/economy/202...gapore%20dollar.


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 21 2024, 11:34 PM
AVFAN
post Feb 22 2024, 09:54 AM

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QUOTE(ericlaiys @ Feb 22 2024, 09:42 AM)
local analysts/banks/research houses have been saying that for a couple of years now.

the more they say, the faster RM goes down. laugh.gif

unless some major reforms happen, direction will not change, imo.

have we heard any putrajaya/cabinet plan for major reforms?
AVFAN
post Feb 22 2024, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(silentsurfer @ Feb 22 2024, 10:33 AM)
When the US cut rates later this year,  MYR is expected to rebound against USD. Is SGD also expected to rebound against USD? If so, what will be the projected impact on SGD/MYR?
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u have to consider likelihood of BNM cutting rates too.

then there may be some dedollarization effect kicking in.

SG does not hike or lower rates but manage the major FX bands, let rates find its way.

imo, given big money still flowing into SG from boland, HK, china, SGD is likely to continue to do v well, even against the USD.
AVFAN
post Feb 22 2024, 04:23 PM

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$ softened today, as seen by the drop in $ index.

oil and gold move up as a result.

this led to RM improving a bit.

AVFAN
post Feb 22 2024, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(CommodoreAmiga @ Feb 22 2024, 03:20 PM)
BNM unlikely cut rates. Unless US drop till very low. BNM OPR will likely remain unchanged until next year. I think US drop won't be as fast as it rise.
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hard to say... bnm does not always follow $ moves; USA hot employment, high inflation still.

it has think of local situation, may be forced to cut sooner than expected.

last qtr, GDP shrank from previous; if this qtr shrinks again, that's a technical recession.

our exports no good; imports high; trade surplus meagre = less FX.

we makan too much, import too much food!! biggrin.gif

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...ugh-year-ahead/

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 22 2024, 04:32 PM
AVFAN
post Feb 22 2024, 08:22 PM

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QUOTE(CommodoreAmiga @ Feb 22 2024, 06:56 PM)
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/701841

Edge datang kelentong lagi.

Last round some expert claim RM will go back to RM4.3 LAST DECEMBER.
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that's how u keep yr job la!

u dare say 5.0 meh?!!


bloomberg did a sruvey... htis midf is the best one, deserves big bonus la...

the rest... 4.75, 4.6, 4.5...everyone's guess can be right.

so... dun guess.

look for what putarjeya/peeam/gabenor/kabinet/menterees do.

so far, nothing, right?
AVFAN
post Feb 23 2024, 09:10 AM

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this is probably the single most impt variable in the current RM-USD relationship:

"The 10-year MGS, which is a good benchmark, is yielding 3.90 per cent, but unlike US bonds, which are considered risk-free, those are yielding 4.30 per cent," Innes added.
https://www.nst.com.my/business/economy/202...erest-malaysias

our borrowing costs will go up - u know the effect on the RM.
AVFAN
post Feb 23 2024, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(BboyDora @ Feb 23 2024, 10:37 AM)
first time see currency movement? of course it will up and down up and down . down abit no need to scare. it will go up to RM 4 or RM 4.5 by year end 2024. SGD never wrong for the past 20 years. (uptrend)
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wa... yr appetite very gud! biggrin.gif

i think more likely 3.80. USD, 5.0... by year end.

those midf fellas - need to return to primary school.
AVFAN
post Feb 24 2024, 08:21 AM

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if only our top guns are this honest and starting do the right things...

Why is the ringgit falling?
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...inggit-falling/

AVFAN
post Mar 3 2024, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(CommodoreAmiga @ Mar 2 2024, 08:10 PM)
this tikam is only for next week... no meaning.

this one below better file it, see happens by year end:

Finance minister: Ringgit expected to continue strengthening; trading at RM4.50 vs USD year-end
https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/202...year-end/120640

i think a lot will depend on budget 2025 later in the year... see what deficit, how much more debt to take.

japan, germany, uk in technical recession + china, usa slowing down... 2024 will be tough for our exports, trade balance, FX...
AVFAN
post Mar 4 2024, 07:58 AM

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interesting quotes and figures:


QUOTE
The ringgit will continue falling. Here’s why

Since 1970, we’ve gone from having RM4.1 billion in circulation to RM2.4 trillion now. This is an eye-watering 580-times increase in money supply in the span of 54 years.

That comes up to an average of about a 10% increase in money supply every year. This means our base annual inflation rate, excluding any extenuating factors that might cause the prices of goods and services to increase, is 10%.
...

Inflation via money printing is the most insidious form of taxation – because most people either don’t know about it or don’t realise how it’s affecting them on a day-to-day basis
...

The only way out is for us to take personal responsibility for our financial security. The only way out is to own hard assets – assets that can’t be inflated away by the whims and fancies of those in power.

The government can’t save you. Save yourselves.


https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...ling-heres-why/
AVFAN
post Mar 8 2024, 07:21 AM

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latest:

Powell says the Fed is ‘not far’ from the point of cutting interest rates
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/07/powell-says...rest-rates.html
The outlook now is for the first cut to come in June, with four reductions totaling a full percentage point by the end of 2024.
AVFAN
post Mar 8 2024, 07:54 AM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Mar 8 2024, 07:41 AM)
Good news for ma reit...

Been hammered 99 after no cut early 2024..
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if fed cuts 1% by year end and BNM do same, we can expect inflation to roar here.

almost everything will go up in price, incl oil, food imports.

it wud be much more difficult for gomen to reduce subsidies, esp petrol.

stocks and commodities will rise in tandem.

meaning, bank deposits become less n less attractive, better go punt on stocks and commodities! laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Mar 21 2024, 08:33 AM

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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/yen-flounde...-spotlight.html

3 rate cuts coming this year, $ index fell.

RM... slight improvement to 4.71x.

against SGD... still 3.52x.




AVFAN
post Mar 21 2024, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Mar 21 2024, 01:40 PM)
election looming... how can not say will cut...  tongue.gif
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true!

here:
https://www.nst.com.my/business/economy/202...throughout-2024

no cut until GE16 approaches... tunggu la...! biggrin.gif



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