This week's MAS Bill auction results:

Tenure	4-week	12-week
Cut-off yield	4.3%	4.1%
Median yield	4.05%	4.03%
Average yield	3.56%	3.65%
BTC ratio	1.58	2.4

Source:

4-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-06-09

12-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-06-09

Both COY still stay above 4%.

6M T-bill auction closes at 9 pm today.

Now no more Bloomberg FXFA screenshots...

Have to rely on MAS... I think MAS' data and FXFA's are pretty close, so reliable also lah.

MAS published last bid quote (by primary dealers) of BS23110X maturing on 28 Nov 2023: 3.82% p.a. https://eservices.mas.gov.sg/statistics/fda...ssuePrices.aspx

So, I will bid 3.80% p.a.

Today's 6M bill auction result:

% of Competitive Applications at Cut-off Allotted	Approximately 44%
% of Non-Competitive Applications Allotted	100%
Bid-to-Cover Ratio	2.21
Cut-off Yield (Price)	3.84% p.a. (98.085)
Median Yield (Price)	3.68% p.a. (98.165)
Average Yield (Price)	3.36% p.a. (98.325)

Source: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-06-13

This week's MAS Bill auction results:

Tenure	4-week	12-week
Cut-off yield	4.2%	4.15%
Median yield	3.9%	4.02%
Average yield	3.32%	3.67%
BTC ratio	2.03	1.94

Source:

4-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-06-16

12-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-06-16

In this round, 4-week is hotter than 12-week.

This week's MAS Bill auction results:

Tenure	4-week	12-week
Cut-off yield	4.21%	4.13%
Median yield	4%	4.05%
Average yield	3.47%	3.59%
BTC ratio	1.73	1.92

Source:

4-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-06-23

12-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-06-23

6M T-bill auction closed at 9 pm today.

MAS published last bid quote (by primary dealers) of BS23111W maturing on 12 Dec 2023: 3.83% p.a. https://eservices.mas.gov.sg/statistics/fda...ssuePrices.aspx

I bid 3.80% p.a. All the best guys!

T-bills are short-term parking facility. There are many factors at play on inflation. Your personal spending pattern may be different from the official statistics, for one, and secondly, currency matters too, i.e. different country has different inflation levels.

For Malaysians converting MYR to SGD and buying SG T-bill 1 year back, SGD.MYR appreciates about 10% since 1 year ago plus about 4% return on risk-free SGD T-bills = 14% p.a. return in MYR terms, and your only risky position is to bet against MYR.

https://www.investing.com/currencies/sgd-myr

Sure, you observed something many Sporeans have found out, that T-bill yields beat FD rates recently.

MAS website is the most authoritative source of reference: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/Sing...for-Individuals

There is a very active T-bill discussion thread on HWZ: https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/...769601/page-724

I wrote some stuffs on bidding T-bills in this thread earlier: https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...ost&p=106297872

This post has been edited by TOS: Jun 22 2023, 11:36 AM

For now yes, short-term rates are high. Long-term rates are low, however. You can Google "Yield curve" for SG, US etc. and see how rates differ with tenor.

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Today's 6M bill auction result:

% of Competitive Applications at Cut-off Allotted	Approximately 74%
% of Non-Competitive Applications Allotted	100%
Bid-to-Cover Ratio	1.98
Cut-off Yield (Price)	3.89% p.a. (98.06)
Median Yield (Price)	3.6% p.a. (98.205)
Average Yield (Price)	3.07% p.a. (98.469)

Source: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-06-27

Will we see 3.9% next round?

This post has been edited by TOS: Jun 22 2023, 01:40 PM

Hi again Chua. The T-bill issuance calendar is published by MAS around October/November every year.

You can refer to the dates here and mark them down on your calendar: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...suance-calendar

No, you can't.

For DBS, using cash (not CPF, SRS etc.), the deadline for application is 9 pm on the night BEFORE auction day.

So, for today's auction (with a cut-off yield of 3.89%), you should submit your bid before 9 pm yesterday night (21st June).

The next 6 month T-bill auction date is on the 6th of July, so you MUST submit your bid before 9 pm on 5th of July. MAS usually publishes the most recent T-bill's yield by 5-6 pm daily, so that's a good reference if you don't know what yield to bid: https://eservices.mas.gov.sg/statistics/fda...ssuePrices.aspx

I am not sure of the deadline for OCBC, it should be the same I think (or maybe 12pm?). You can login to OCBC's online portal one day after the new T-bill announcement date to check the deadline.

-------------------------------

I forgot to mention reddevil has made 2 very good introductory posts in his HWZ T-bill thread. https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/...-bills.6769601/

Should be easy to understand for newbies.

This post has been edited by TOS: Jun 22 2023, 03:29 PM

Lai lai I share a "top-secret" slide with you guys.

 L11_Short_Rate_Prediction_handout.zip ( 932.05k ) Number of downloads: 13


Attached is a slide from my Fixed Income course at HKUST on short-term rates forecasting (focusing on the US). In reality, fixed income people do VARIMA analysis using multiple factors like those from Taylor's rule and other macroeconomic variables which are relevant. The most important factor is inflation level. Higher inflation rate -> higher interest rates -> higher risk-free yields.

You may want to look at payrolls (leading indicator) and consider persistency of policy to prevent shock to the market (which is why some people blame the Fed for acting too late in certain occasions).

The best prediction for US's case is the Fed funds futures rate. For SG I think you may use overnight index swap (OIS) SORA rates for guidance.

SG rates tend to follow US and the market prices SG sovereign issues at the same risk level as Switzerland and slightly safer than US. The appreciating SGD NEER means SG rates are usually lower than their US counterparts.

This week's MAS Bill auction results:

Tenure	4-week	12-week
Cut-off yield	4.19%	4.16%
Median yield	4%	4.04%
Average yield	3.51%	3.79%
BTC ratio	1.74	1.83

Source:

4-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-06-30

12-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-06-30

T-bill will show up in your DBS/OCBC/UOB account website in the evening on the day it is announced. The first page of reddevil's T-bill post on HWZ answers your question:

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/...-bills.6769601/



Best time to go in is "last minute", usually the evening before auction day (around 5 -6 pm when MAS announced the average bid quotes from the primary dealers for the latest issuance here: https://eservices.mas.gov.sg/statistics/fda...suePrices.aspx)

For cash application, DBS's ibanking portal deadline is 9pm ONE day before auction. For CPF-OA applications, DBS's deadline is usually at 12 pm TWO days before auction. Just login to your DBS ibanking portal on T-bill announcement date and check (you don't have to pay anything yet, just check the deadline in advance).

Kindly refer to UOB/OCBC digital banking portal for their respective deadlines. It should be about the same time.

One important thing to beware of is technical issue for digital banking websites. Recently DBS had problems with its ibanking portal and phone app, one such event happened one day before T-bill auction day and the service only went back online late in the evening around 6-7 pm, just hours before the T-bill application deadline. To avoid/mitigate such issues, it's sometimes best to submit your bids earlier (though the rates might change dramatically if bad/good things happen just before the auction date) or open one or more bank accounts with a separate primary dealer (UOB/OCBC/DBS).

Allotment is based on "uniform price auction" method, which is also used in US T-bill issuance. 40% of the issued amount is reserved for non-competitive bids whose bidders only set the amount they want but not the price/yields. Competitive bidders, the other 60%, get to decide on the price and yield. The highest yield/lowest price of the auction will be the cut-off yield, which is the price/yield for that particular issue of T-bill for all non-comp bidders and competitive bidders who bid at/below cut-off yield.

reddevil's post explained the process in layman's term for you: https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/...#post-142324694 (2nd post in his thread)



If non-competitive bid exceeds the 40% allotment limit, then the bond/bill will be allocated to you on a pro-rated basis.

It's stated on MAS's official website: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/inve...s-are-conducted

This post has been edited by TOS: Jun 28 2023, 03:18 PM

A little correction:



Source: vsvs24/HWZ

This week's MAS Bill auction results:

Tenure	4-week	12-week
Cut-off yield	4.15%	4.18%
Median yield	4.05%	4.08%
Average yield	3.58%	3.52%
BTC ratio	2.04	2.19

Source:

4-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-07-07

12-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-07-07

Last day guys! Deadline is 9pm today. This round high chance of COY above 3.90% p.a.

MAS primary dealers quoted 3.87% for the recent 6M issue (BS23112N issued 2 weeks ago, back then COY was 3.89% p.a.)

https://eservices.mas.gov.sg/statistics/fda...ssuePrices.aspx

I bid 3.85% p.a.

Should have bookmarked the dates on your calendar.

https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...suance-calendar

MAS is late this time... Must be a super-hot issue!

Sources from HWZ says COY is 3.99%!

Non-competitive ones oversubscribed "a bit".

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/...#post-148277903

N.B. OCBC is damn efficient, money already credited into accounts of those who bought T-bills... apart from sending notifications...

This post has been edited by TOS: Jul 6 2023, 02:16 PM

lol