Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 DG Hisham: KKM MAY start using Ivermectin

views
     
aspartame
post Jul 11 2021, 10:55 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
3,165 posts

Joined: Feb 2015
QUOTE(lowya @ Jul 11 2021, 08:45 AM)
The Lancet peer reviewed study confirms vaccine efficacy, not at 95%, but as:

* Astra Zeneca 1.3%
* Moderna 1.2%
* J&J 1.2%
* Pfizer 0.84%

They deceived everyone by reporting Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) rather than Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR)
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pi...%2821%2900069-0

https://twitter.com/MindshockPod/status/1414007190898229250
*
If AZ ARR is just 1.3%... how do you explain drastic drop in number of deaths in UK despite surging cases? The only explanation is that the vaccine AZ works...right?
aspartame
post Jul 11 2021, 11:51 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
3,165 posts

Joined: Feb 2015
QUOTE(lowya @ Jul 11 2021, 11:46 AM)
you can explain whichever way u like, you can even say u prayed therefore god healed you too, why not? it doesn't matter to me how you want explain, as long as it pleases you right?
*
Lol.. it seems like you cannot explain why UK death rate so low despite surging Covid cases... as I said, the logical explanation is vaccines work....even in the US, the cases dropped straight down after vaccination ...there is no question that vaccine efficacy is more than 1.5%
aspartame
post Jul 11 2021, 02:58 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
3,165 posts

Joined: Feb 2015
QUOTE(lowya @ Jul 11 2021, 11:57 AM)
because i do not argue with the incorrigibles  biggrin.gif
*
Point taken🄳
aspartame
post Jul 11 2021, 02:59 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
3,165 posts

Joined: Feb 2015
QUOTE(Boy96 @ Jul 11 2021, 11:54 AM)
But then uk and us does not use majority of inactivated virus based vaccine, then again, thats another topic altogether
*
That’s really another topic for another day that will be never ending šŸ˜…
aspartame
post Jul 11 2021, 08:40 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
3,165 posts

Joined: Feb 2015
QUOTE(JohnL77 @ Jul 11 2021, 07:27 PM)
Big part of it is because a lot of the vulnerable people who would have died from covid already died from covid.

US antibody testing based on commercial laboratory testing shows that about 22% of their population already infected. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

If it's based on blood donor antibody testing, about 33% already infected. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#n...-seroprevalence

US and UK have about the same covid deaths per capita (almost 1,900 covid deaths per million people) so I think it's safe to assume that the percentage of UK population already infected with covid is about the same as the USA.
In the USA only about 50% have been fully vaccinated. If plus the 22% to 33% already infected people, then up to 80% of their population already have immunity. If we assume half of the already infected people also took the vaccines, then at least 60% to 75% of their population already have immunity.
*
Not really le... uk total infected 5mil/ total population 60mil or about 8% of population infected so far only
aspartame
post Jul 11 2021, 09:16 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
3,165 posts

Joined: Feb 2015
QUOTE(JohnL77 @ Jul 11 2021, 07:27 PM)
Big part of it is because a lot of the vulnerable people who would have died from covid already died from covid.

US antibody testing based on commercial laboratory testing shows that about 22% of their population already infected. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

If it's based on blood donor antibody testing, about 33% already infected. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#n...-seroprevalence

US and UK have about the same covid deaths per capita (almost 1,900 covid deaths per million people) so I think it's safe to assume that the percentage of UK population already infected with covid is about the same as the USA.
In the USA only about 50% have been fully vaccinated. If plus the 22% to 33% already infected people, then up to 80% of their population already have immunity. If we assume half of the already infected people also took the vaccines, then at least 60% to 75% of their population already have immunity.
*
QUOTE(JohnL77 @ Jul 11 2021, 08:45 PM)
Oh.. I didn’t grasp what you were trying to say.... so actually what you said was basically in line with what I said which was AZ vaccination was very effective in bringing down death rate or in your case you are saying vaccination and natural immunity acquired were responsible in bringing down the death rate...

So, both our observations correctly pointed out that the supposed ARR of AZ of 1.3% does not make sense
aspartame
post Jul 12 2021, 07:30 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
3,165 posts

Joined: Feb 2015
QUOTE(diffyhelman2 @ Jul 12 2021, 12:06 AM)
I think you are not getting the idea of ARR. ARR is dependent on the background risk of catching covid in the first place. For the lancet article, they had low ARR because during the time they were doing the trials the  prevalence of Covid was not as high as during the second wave. you mention 5mil/60 mil population in the UK already infected with Sars2-covid. that is for the entire period since pandemic started in Mar 2020. ARR is always calculated base on a defined period (for eg the vaccine trial period).

If you can imagine that over a period of X years, you will have 100% chance of catching covid, then the vaccine ARR = RRR.

This is also why using ARR is problematic during an ongoing infectious pandemic cycle. ARR would be more appropriate if used during a steady state endemic level situation where the background risk is stable and constant. However during a pandemic, the force of the infection is dynamic, if its not well controlled by vaccines, SOP etc, the background risk would increase exponentially. The ironic thing is, the higher the background risk, the higher the ARR figures would be.
*
Oh.. thanks for detailed explanation .. I got a better idea of it now but all these medical things and statistics are confusing ...so, what is the article trying to say? Why did they bring up ARR then if ARR is only ā€œaccurateā€ during a steady state? So in a pandemic state, the stated RRR of higher figures like 90+% in Pfizer etc was accurate what... arggh ...anyway, my layman interpretation/observation was that vaccines were obviously very effective in UK now in bringing down death rate

On another note... if ARR is low, are you saying once this pandemic die down , we might not need vaccination anymore as the low ARR means there is not much added benefit?

 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0122sec    0.33    6 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 25th November 2025 - 01:33 AM