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DG Hisham: KKM MAY start using Ivermectin
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JohnL77
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 Jul 11 2021, 07:17 PM
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QUOTE(slimey @ Jul 11 2021, 09:03 AM) “Let’s say a study enrolled 20,000 patients into the control group and 20,000 in the vaccine group. In that study, 200 people in the control group got sick and 0 people in the vaccine group got sick. Even though the vaccine efficacy would be a whopping 100%, the ARR would show that vaccines reduce the absolute risk by just 1% (200/20,000= 1%). For the ARR to increase to 20% in our example study with a vaccine with 100% efficacy, 4,000 of the 20,000 people in the control group would have to get sick (4,000/20,000= 20%).” see the issue with ARR? I see an issue with how "deadly" this virus is. |
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JohnL77
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Jul 11 2021, 07:27 PM
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QUOTE(aspartame @ Jul 11 2021, 10:55 AM) If AZ ARR is just 1.3%... how do you explain drastic drop in number of deaths in UK despite surging cases? The only explanation is that the vaccine AZ works...right? Big part of it is because a lot of the vulnerable people who would have died from covid already died from covid. US antibody testing based on commercial laboratory testing shows that about 22% of their population already infected. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-labIf it's based on blood donor antibody testing, about 33% already infected. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#n...-seroprevalenceUS and UK have about the same covid deaths per capita (almost 1,900 covid deaths per million people) so I think it's safe to assume that the percentage of UK population already infected with covid is about the same as the USA. In the USA only about 50% have been fully vaccinated. If plus the 22% to 33% already infected people, then up to 80% of their population already have immunity. If we assume half of the already infected people also took the vaccines, then at least 60% to 75% of their population already have immunity. This post has been edited by JohnL77: Jul 11 2021, 07:35 PM |
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JohnL77
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Jul 11 2021, 08:45 PM
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QUOTE(aspartame @ Jul 11 2021, 08:40 PM) Not really le... uk total infected 5mil/ total population 60mil or about 8% of population infected so far only PCR vs antibody tests. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/seroprevalenceQUOTE the frequency of individuals in a population that have a particular element (such as antibodies to HIV) in their blood serum. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SeroprevalenceQUOTE Seroprevalence is the number of persons in a population who test positive for a specific disease based on serology (blood serum) specimens; often presented as a percent of the total specimens tested or as a proportion per 100,000 persons tested. As positively identifying the occurrence of disease is usually based upon the presence of antibodies for that disease (especially with viral infections such as herpes simplex, HIV, and SARS-CoV-2), this number is not significant if the specificity of the antibody is low. This post has been edited by JohnL77: Jul 11 2021, 08:47 PM |
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