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 Military Thread V28

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alexz23
post Sep 9 2021, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(Frozen_Sun @ Sep 9 2021, 11:28 PM)
FA-50 is decent for ground strike, AGM-65 and JDAM for precision, Mk-82 with CCIP aiming is enough to target medium-sized building
Can be used for limited maritime strike too. AGM-65 can disable coast guard ship or corvette with only MANPAD-grade air defence.

But, it doesn't have BVR capability.

user posted image
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FA-50 Block 20 is in development, will have BVR capability, along with targeting pods and probe for air to air refueling.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/def...50-golden-eagle

https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/20...e-for-kai-fa-50

alexz23
post Sep 10 2021, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(KLthinker91 @ Sep 10 2021, 08:22 AM)

Yes, I do know what "Multi Role Combat Aircraft" stands for; let me ask, do you know what is "high low mix"?

Air Forces don't all operate the same single type of aircraft for many reasons. FA-50 is FA-50; KFX is KFX; both do different things.

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Yes you are correct. Korean Air Force wants both the upgraded FA-50 and KFX for different things.

ROKAF wants the FA-50 to be their LCA, to replace all their F-5E, and also take up F-4 tasks.

ROKAF wants the KFX to be their MMRCA, to replace the bulk of its F-16 fleet. It is designed to have a cheaper operating cost than the F-35.

TUDM can do the same, FA-50 as the LCA to replace our hawks and MB-339, and take up MiG-29 tasks, while the KFX as the MMRCA to replace our Hornets.

QUOTE(KLthinker91 @ Sep 10 2021, 08:22 AM)

Philippines may have other reasons for buying F-16V.

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Actually currently the Phillipine government for now wants to buy the Gripen C because it is cheaper than the F-16V, which is unfortunate as there is very little difference in performance between FA-50 and Gripen C, especially compared to the upgraded FA-50 Block 20.

F-16V with conformal fuel tanks will give phillipines a long range combat air patrol capability. TUDM already have the capability with the very long range SU-30MKM.

QUOTE(KLthinker91 @ Sep 10 2021, 08:22 AM)

The US will certainly have the final say but there's no reason for them to block AMRAAM integration, it is also carried by the Swedish Gripen and British Harrier. Plus it is dated and production will stop within the decade.

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I agree. FA-50 even with AMRAAM is not a direct competitor to F-16 (longer range and heavier weapons payload) or F-35 (stealth capability).









alexz23
post Sep 10 2021, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 10 2021, 08:05 AM)

As for the FA50 block 20. I doubt it's is cheap. Since the first customer who demand such customization is the one paying for the R&D. Unless ROK gov wanted to subsidies it like they did for the rest of FA50 development. Something that maybe impossible since they are currently paying for KF21 development and the fact with T7 is around, additional sales of FA50 possibility just get dimmer. But if they are willing, then great.

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The FA-50 Block 20 has almost no hardware changes, except for the refueling probe. All the upgrade to carry targeting pod and BVR are just software related. Our LCA/LIFT requirement is for 36 aircraft in total, so 35 million per aircraft is possible.


QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 10 2021, 08:05 AM)

Even if they are willing, it's maybe still not possible.If it's possible there's no need for Philippines to purchase either the F16V or Gripen C and just upgrade their FA50 software considering the limited budget they have.

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Malaysia needs LCA to replace our Hawks while the philippines already got their FA-50. Malaysia still got our Hornets and SU-30MKM, while the philippines have no MRCA. That is the difference.


QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 10 2021, 08:05 AM)

As for the budget. you are right the budget are tight. seem like TUDM typically get RM5 billion development budget for 5 years. And they wanted  18 LCA, 3 MALE, 2MPA, GBAD, few used FA18, few amraam for the LCA & GBAD  for that's very limited budget. Something that's only probably possible if the sellers is subsidizing our purchases in exchange for furthering their national interest.

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We don't have the luxury to waste money on underwhelming products for our requirements, even more so now. RM5 billion is just 1.2 billion dollars. So we just have around 2.4 billion dollars to play with until 2030. That have not taken into account the money we have spent on COVID 19 that surely has to be taken from somewhere. It would be a miracle if we can have the same budget as before, what more an increased one.

So can malaysia afford to implement your 18 M346 + 18 F-35A plan? With the budget that we usually got, malaysia can barely pay half of your want with a 10 year budget.


QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 10 2021 )

If we can get a used FA18
There's really no need to overspend on a LCA.

Buying a jet is also a 30 years worth of commitment.
Just because the FA50 is a more mature & better jet than T7 today doesn't mean it still is 10 years down the road.

And in 10 years both RAF & RAAF would likely get those T7 anyway. Isn't that one of the reason we get those hawk in the 1st place?

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Used F/A-18 is at best usable for only 10 years. New LCA now will be useful for at least 30 more years.

Getting the hardware is one thing, operating it is another. F/A-18 operating costs is at least 3 times of the FA-50. No use if we cannot fly them regularly.

Even right now, from all available information, the T-7 performance is actually worse then the FA-50. Things like the extremely small nose to fit any radar, maximum speed of only 1,300 km/h, removal of most fighting capability in its design phase to reduce cost will make it nearly impossible to be modified into a better fighter than the FA-50. That thing only won because of the need to give Boeing some jobs, while Lockheed martin already got F-35 and F-16 on its plate.

RAAF and RAF probably going to get the T-7, but purely for training role. We need our LCA as the best LCA possible, while still be the best FLIT. Also we need the LCA like now, not in 10 years time.

alexz23
post Sep 10 2021, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(KLthinker91 @ Sep 10 2021, 11:18 AM)
We don't know what pinoys want. Could also be a way of patching up US-Phils relations.

TUDM as darth5zaft pointed out has a realistic LCA budget of about Usd 1.5 billion. If we want something in the region of 30 aircraft, that means we are only ever going to buy the FA-50 Blk 20 or M346FA or equivalent class of aircraft, period.
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Which is why I have asked, for the same amount of money, can we afford not to get the FA-50 block 20?


QUOTE(junkyman @ Sep 10 2021, 11:32 AM)
TUDM best option - 12 nos T/A-50 for LIFT and 24 F/A-50 for LCA
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12 TA-50 at 30 million dollars each = 360 million dollars

24 FA-50 at 35 million dollars each = 840 million dollars

total of 1.2 billion dollars.

alexz23
post Sep 10 2021, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(atreyuangel @ Sep 10 2021, 11:42 AM)

memang betul, tengok pembelian Hornet dah la. 100% political purchase

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Antara pembelian yg paling berbaloi kepada negara.

Tak ada orang tengah, pembelian FMS.

Offset pembelian hornet kepada negara ialah pemberian mesin CNC rapid prototyping paling canggih pada zaman 90an yang diletakkan di technology park malaysia bukit jalil. Daripada mesin rapid prototyping ni lah kita dapat buat proton Gen-2, Waja.

alexz23
post Sep 10 2021, 12:08 PM

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Other offsets that I can remember

BAe Hawk
Given the IP rights and toolings of MD-3 aerotiga
Given the IP rights to Bulldog trainer.
Given weapons pylon manufacturing for all Hawks.
Given havard trainer aircraft to TUDM museum.

with offsets malaysia has become one of the biggest aerospace component manufacturer in south east asia, with sales worth more than 1 billion dollars annually.

Indonesia might be proud of having own aircraft, but their sales are less than 100 million dollars per year.

Malaysia is now one of the biggest aerospace composite parts manufacturer in the world (ACM Kedah and CTRM Melaka), while also producing metallic aero structures (Spirit aerosystems) and advanced metallurgic jet engine components (UMW aerospace). In a nutshell, our aerospace industry can be said to be much more advanced then Indonesia while contributing billions to malaysian economy.
alexz23
post Sep 10 2021, 12:30 PM

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QUOTE(KLthinker91 @ Sep 10 2021, 12:11 PM)
more likely to be ~50 million per block 20 plus few millions more for pods etc. and you have forgotten that we also need to replace the existing trainers

so, it's more something like:

12 LIFT x 30 million to support Su30/F18 force = 360 million

18 FA/50 x 50 million = 900 million

8 LIFT x 30 million to support FA50 force = 240 million

total = 1.5 billion
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We don't need 8 LIFT exclusively for FA-50.

Currently we have 5 Hawk 2 seater + 7 unoperational MB-339CM 2 seater.

12 TA-50 is enough. The Golden eagle comes with highly sophisticated full motion simulators and VR simulators. It is far cry from old training systems.

user posted image

As I said previously, the FA-50 Block 20 has almost no hardware changes, except for the refueling probe. All the upgrade to carry targeting pod and BVR are just software related. Our LCA/LIFT requirement is for 36 aircraft in total, so 35 million per aircraft is possible.

" A KAI senior manager told AIN in an exclusive interview that work started in October 2018 and that the project aims to be completed no later than 2021. He added that current FA-50 users can still benefit from the software upgrade and that no physical modifications are to be made to the aircraft.

The manager also revealed that an FA-50 Block 20 is in the works, and development will begin starting this year. Block 20 will give the FA-50 the capability to conduct beyond-visual-range air-to-air missions, carrying munitions such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM. As with the Block 10, there is no requirement to modify the radar of the FA-50. "
alexz23
post Sep 10 2021, 01:28 PM

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QUOTE(KLthinker91 @ Sep 10 2021, 01:04 PM)
we can assume the Hawks and Mb339s are out of the picture by the time the T-50s arrive

12 T-50s can't support 18 SU-30s, 8 F-18s, and 24 FA-50s. I'm not aware that the new T-50 can generate more training hours than other AJTs.

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Why can't 12 TA-50 support the training of our whole airforce?

Thailand, with 100++ fighter aircraft, will do it with 14 T-50TH

FA-50 pilots also can straight away go from TA-50 without needing any OCU training as it is the same aircraft.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2017/07/11/...rders-for-258m/




QUOTE(KLthinker91 @ Sep 10 2021, 01:04 PM)
35 million won't get you Block 20 as it is the current price of non-Block 20. You must assume the additional e.g. software upgrades will be included in the future price tag.
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https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-det...attack-aircraft

The block 20 is being paid for by ROKAF as it plans to use the FA-50 to replace F-5 tiger and F-4 phantom roles. Most of it are just software differences.

about softwares. if we buy the Block 20, it will be from day 1 uploaded with the latest software, so we don't need to pay more to upgrade the software. any differences in cost will be minimal. Probably 1-2 million difference, if any.

This post has been edited by alexz23: Sep 10 2021, 01:36 PM
alexz23
post Sep 10 2021, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(KLthinker91 @ Sep 10 2021, 01:42 PM)
Why compare with Thais who have doubtful training and readiness levels throughout?

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Okay give me another comparison. Anyway isn't the thais who whooped chinese a$$ in air combat exercise?


QUOTE(KLthinker91 @ Sep 10 2021, 01:42 PM)
True or not, I don't know but that still means operational FA-50 pilots must have jet trainers of some kind. They cannot go from Pilatus straight to operations. And you cannot use FA-50s for both training and operations; if you do, you will be using up their flight hours as if you bought another T-50 anyway.
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every fighter pilot will go through TA-50 training, but those who will go to fly the FA-50 next will need no additional OCU training as the aircraft is the same. Right now we are training 24 fighter pilots a year using rented old crappy planes (just 6 of them) in canada. So why isn't it enough to use 12 highly advanced supersonic AJT instead?

user posted image

Also all FA-50 is twin seater. You can fly both a rookie and a seasoned pilot on every operational flight. so 2 pilots can log flight hours on every flight (to build up operational experience, not for basic training), unlike a single seater fighter aircraft. So no issue of using up flight hours of the FA-50.

This post has been edited by alexz23: Sep 10 2021, 02:22 PM
alexz23
post Sep 10 2021, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 10 2021, 03:08 PM)
Korean currently has no commercial plane products. So on top of subsidizing the R&D cost for FA50 block 20, they would need to offer manufacturing offset so we would manufacture some parts of their jet components. But if they are willing. Then great.


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offsets does not need to be aerospace related, as was the offset for the hornets.

korea has plenty of electronic industries (samsung, LG), automotive (hyundai-kia) and petrochemical too (like lotte chemical). They want an exit from china (due to american sanctions) and the offsets could be by encouraging then to sett up new factories in malaysia or JV with malaysian companies like silterra.



QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 10 2021, 03:08 PM)
The used FA18 can be used for the next 10 years before a competent arms version of T7 is develop.

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Do we have the money to operate 24 Hornets regularly instead of say 24 FA-50 for 10 years? Look at my previous post below

QUOTE(alexz23 @ Sep 9 2021, 01:39 PM)
also look at the operational costs.

If we scale up the costs to what malaysia will be using (24x LCA), the annual cost for M346 would be 54 million euro, while for the same amount of FA-50 the annual cost would be 60 million euro. Flying the same amount of say F/A-18 would cost about 150 million euro.

So which one is better for malaysia?

M346 with 50% performance and capability of a real fighter at 54 million euro per year to fly

or

FA-50 with 90% performance and capability of a real fighter at 60 million euro per year to fly
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To operate F/A-18 - 150 million euro times 10 years. That is 1.5 billion euro.

To operate FA-50 - 60 million euro times 10 years. That is only 600 million euro. Say 24 FA-50 will cost 800 million euro. So buying 24 FA-50 plus operating them for 10 years will cost 1.4 billion euro.

If you operate F/A-18, you will burn 1.5 billion euro then after 10 years will need to buy T-7. Even if T-7 is the same price as FA-50, that is in total 2.3 billion needed.

A difference of 0.9 billion euro, which can be better spent to buy MRCA instead.



QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 10 2021, 03:08 PM)
Thought 1 of the most interesting aspect of KAI is the usage of common fuselage for all Korean helicopter need. The surion seem a bit too big, but something like H160M seems good enough

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KAI has 2 types of helicopter being built for korean armed forces.

first is the Surion which is basically a licence built puma.

user posted image

second is the LAH which is a licence built dauphin. which is a scary thought as china also fields license built dauphins in its army.

Which one is chinese and which one is korean?
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Anyway another offset that we could ask the koreans for LCA/FLIT is their relatively new but going to be retired 100+ blackhawks. Korea has decided not to do overhaul to its Blackhawks which is just around 20 years old and instead replace them all with Surions to support the korean aerospace industry.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pac...-says-lawmaker/

user posted image

Korea has done the same kind of offsets before, like giving free pohang corvettes to Philippines when they buy Hyundai frigates.

This post has been edited by alexz23: Sep 10 2021, 05:18 PM
alexz23
post Sep 11 2021, 12:00 AM

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Korean companies of course will leave china, but Malaysia buying big of korean defence hardwares will give us the leverage to ask them to move to malaysia instead of indonesia or vietnam. This gives us double benefits, getting investments from korea while getting military hardwares from them.

Anyway how can our economy grow 300% (quadruple) in a mere 10 years? that would need to take into account this years growth is probably 0% or worse. Also with not much leverage to ask korean industries to choose malaysia instead of indoneisa or vietnam. Our economy has never grown more than 12% per year, and usually around 4-6%. Now with a weak government and low foreign investor confidence in malaysia i cannot see your 300% increase ever going to happen.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP...1961&view=chart

Please give me your calculation of how much the money need to be spent (including operational costs) to implement your idea of flying 24 used F/A-18 instead of LCA for 10 years + the need to buy 18 T-7 and 24 MRCA together at the same time in around 2031.


alexz23
post Sep 11 2021, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(azriel @ Sep 11 2021, 08:15 AM)
Source reported that the Indonesian Marines plan to buy 20 units AAV7 with budget pending approval from the Ministry of Finance. This may be an alternative as the contract for 22 units BMP-3F and 21 units BT-3F that have been already signed are on hold due to CAATSA.

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https://www.tnial.mil.id/berita/31519/TINJA...ARINIR-AMERIKA/
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AAV7 brand new or EDA ex USMC?

USA never blocked vietnam with CAATSA, so why indonesia is blocked?
alexz23
post Sep 11 2021, 12:48 PM

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QUOTE(akagidemon @ Sep 11 2021, 10:55 AM)
satu la yang aku dok harap, malaysia beli super tucano 2-3 biji untuk role of border patrol dkt sabah. boleh supplement hercules yang kita tgh pakai sekarang.
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We can use our PC-7 MkII if we want to



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This post has been edited by alexz23: Sep 11 2021, 12:57 PM
alexz23
post Sep 11 2021, 12:53 PM

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QUOTE(azriel @ Sep 11 2021, 12:37 PM)
Don't know.

What Russian military equipment did Vietnam bought since CAATSA is effective?

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Yak-130 and looking at SU-30SM

https://alert5.com/2021/09/06/deliveries-of...sions-on-su-30/

T-90SK

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-det...anks-to-vietnam


alexz23
post Sep 11 2021, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(atreyuangel @ Sep 11 2021, 12:57 PM)
T90 was signed in 2016
before CAATSA
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Yak-130 is new.
alexz23
post Sep 11 2021, 01:26 PM

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Royal Malaysia Air Force trains on radar operations at WADS

https://www.army.mil/article/250146/royal_m...rations_at_wads

takes from this:

- TUDM going to get 1x TPS-77 radar in 2023.

- it will be located in sarawak, as the training is taken by 330 Sqn personnel (those made infamous by the recent shooting incident)

- the radar will join the current still brand new GM403 radar. probably this new TPS-77 radar will be used to plug the gap between RAT31 SLE radar of labuan and the GM403 near kuching, so the location must be near to bintulu.
alexz23
post Sep 11 2021, 10:54 PM

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alexz23
post Sep 12 2021, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 12 2021, 09:15 AM)
Not my words.
US firms IHS is the one making the forecast . You are also free to check out Forbes, HSBC & PWC forecast as well.

You don't need 12% growth to get those numbers. Also most country except for SG (which pretty much a taxes heaven) do need to first free themselves from dictatorship to achieve a high income status.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...illion-by-2030/

You are the one that praise offset as being a contributor to MY aerospace industry and I'm just stating the obvious. Why take in low wages low value added manufacturing as offset when others can offer something better?

Also I'm not the one who wrote letter to the Kuwaiti asking them for a FA18 hibah smile.gif RMAF the one who wrote it and thus they have to make adjustments to their budget to support those hibah. As per recent RMAF interview, the MRCA would indeed be ordered by 2030 as delivery date is by 2035.

Like i said b4 i has 0 interest in making my own plan then ask ATM why not do this totally awesome plan of mine.  I'm just interested in predicting what they going to do. And if this Fa18 route is the one they choose, the likelihood of the speciation & numbers of jet ordered would be cut and the CAP55 would turn into 2 sq of LCA & 3 sq of MRCA.
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problem no 1. that prediction was made in 2016. No one predicted a worldwide catastrophe of this covid pandemic that gobbles up bilions of dollars and halted economic activities.

Your plan of NOT buying any LCA and buying T-7 and MRCA past 2030. What can that offer us in any offset pre 2030???

Even if buying M346, what can the italians give as offset? Not buying palm oil, not having commercial aerospace industries, not having big electronic industries, so what can the Italians give?

The koreans can give plenty for us to ask for. Electronic Industries, palm oil buying, gas buying, petrochemical industries, automotive industries, access to free retired military equipment (blackhawks, kifvs, metis-m anti-tank missiles, ships)

MRCA is yes going to be ordered by 2030. In 2030 TUDM will not have the budget to buy both MRCA AND LCA all at the same time. Money wasted on flying 24 Hornets could be used to buy + fly FA-50 instead, without needing to put out additional money to buy LCA in 2030.


alexz23
post Sep 12 2021, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(KLthinker91 @ Sep 12 2021, 09:40 AM)
it is if it forces enemies such as China to the negotiation table

but I was thinking more of contesting the SCS
nuh uh, because ships are most economically built like production lines instead of batches. that is, building one by one at a steady pace. building e.g. OPVs this RMK, then pausing 5 years, then starting up OPVs again next 5 years, is theoretically more expensive than e.g. building 10 ships over a defined 10-year period, because of the economic impact of laying off workers and then re-hiring again, and the cost-efficiency impact of switching production lines on and off.

MRSS being a one-off is okay. but ideally, for OPVs and corvettes (which is all we can realistically get), we should be constantly delivering.

one model we could adopt - if we had any sense - is similar to how Japan keeps pumping out destroyers steadily, but with each generation incorporating incremental improvements and upgrades over the previous.

conceivably, we could do the same, say by building a constant 2 OPVs a year, gradually working our way up in quality. remainder of the shipbuilding budget going to bigger ticket items.

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mines are great tools. but it does not discriminate. it will hit all including friendly and civilian ships. Best use of mines is to mine the enemy waterways, not ours. That will need the use of submarines to lay mines near enemy harbours (a good task for large unmanned underwater vehicles UUV), or flying sea mines such as the quickstrike. I hope we will get some quickstrike mines on our own.

We need a long term shipbuilding programme that would constantly churn out ships without having gaps for the workers. Korea is a good example of this for us to emulate.

This post has been edited by alexz23: Sep 12 2021, 11:31 AM
alexz23
post Sep 12 2021, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 12 2021, 01:02 PM)


But as of recently in the Corvette/OPV size categories

6 Kedah out of planned 18?, then the production stop, replacement by
2 Korean training ship, out of 6? Production stop and rebooted
4 Chinese LMS out of planned 18? Production stop and rebooted
Now they talking about rebooted LMS.

Doubt Boustead get to build anymore LCS. Heard the current 6 is just the start and they would try to update it as they build along  like what japanese did.
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6 kedah out of a planned 27. The original plan is unsustainable anyway. 300 million dollars ship but FFBNW or as our neighbors say, ompong.

2 korean training ship is all that we need. not 6. there was somebody wanting to sell 6 korean missile corvettes to TLDM before, but that came to naught.

4 chinese LMS was not build in malaysia. A rebooted LMS should be built in Malaysia as the original plan.

OPVs, with the size of Kedah class or bigger, should cost less than the uber expensive LMS. The MMEA OPV1800 costs less than the LMS, and these OPVs that we should build more of.


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