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 Anyone know about foreign FD?

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wodenus
post Jun 7 2007, 12:09 AM

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Also locking in your money long term is risky... suppose something happens to the country your money is denominated in, you can't take out fast enough + you'll lose all interest.

This post has been edited by wodenus: Jun 7 2007, 12:36 AM
wodenus
post Jun 7 2007, 12:48 AM

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QUOTE(cky80 @ Jun 7 2007, 12:16 AM)
hi guys...actually really interested.

What are the cons? got some kind of management fee? got what kind of fee charges?

i think anything that offers better than malaysian 3.7% either short term (1yr) or long term is a good risk to take. risk however since this is fix deposit we are talking about, should be minimal.


The FD risk is minimal, but the exchange rate risk is not. If you put US$1000 in, you will get US$1000 + 6.15% = $1061.50 at the end of one year. The thing is, what's $1061.50 going to be worth in RM ?

Suppose at the beginning of the year you put in $1000 when US$1 = Rm3.80. So you actually put in $1000x3.8 = Rm3800.

At the end of the year, let's suppose that the exchange rate is now US$1 = Rm3.00. When you take out after one year, your $1061.50 will be worth $1061.50x3 = Rm3184.50.

So basically, if this were to happen, you'd actually lose Rm3800-Rm3184.50 = Rm615.50 after putting your money in FD for one year.

You see how you can lose money in foreign-currency dominated FD now ? it's not risk-free. It all depends on whether the currency goes up or down.

Have you really stopped to calculate how much money you really made ? smile.gif

This post has been edited by wodenus: Jun 7 2007, 12:50 AM
wodenus
post Jun 7 2007, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 7 2007, 01:50 PM)
Cannot say it is bad or good, it depends on situation and individual financially as well as needs. If you treat it as speculation like share or short term speculation, surely it is not the way to do it instead one should treat it as to protect/hedge against ringgit depreciation which in the mean time get some extra yield.

For example, I am going to send my children to overseas studying in few years time (let say Australia), instead of save in ringgit FD (since no stock or UT anymore, needs to be secured) that yield only 3.7%, I can opt to convert first to AUD then put in AUD FD that yield 6.25%. When my children needs it time, I can just straight away take out the FD in AUD and do a AUD remittance to pay their college fee there.

after several years
Three scenario:
1: AUD appreaciate against ringgit - I save more while getting more yield from it.
2. Exchange stay at same - at least I get better yield for several years already about 2.5% compound interest more.
3. AUD depreciate against ringgit - At least I don't have to fork out more although I lose a bit, but children education fee is more and less secure.

You gain 2/3 chance in this way. But bare in mind, you must at least know that your invested currency is strong and the particular country's economy is healthy which provide strong support to its currency.

In this way, I won't need to worry about ringgit depreciation in the future that happened like 97 that a lot of parent suddenly found their saving previous is enough for their chidlren education overseas suddenly with ringgit depreciation then struggling to find extra money to fund their children, some even has to cancel their plan to study abroad at that time due to ringgit depreciation.
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Sure if you have a reason to use it in the native currency (studies or overseas investment or whatever) then it's a great idea. But if you're just thinking, I want to make more than FD, then you're just speculating, which is not something you want to do with FDs I think.

wodenus
post Jun 8 2007, 09:15 AM

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QUOTE(p4n6 @ Jun 8 2007, 12:33 AM)
I have put money in NZD FD from HLB a year ago at bank sell rate of MYR2.3/NZD ... now the bank buy rate is about 2.5. The interest I was promised was 7.1%. I checked the other day after consideration of the currency exchange, I have gained 12% per annum.

All I have to say is that, you have to buy in at the right time, not simply buy ... for example NZD and AUS now are so high, if you expect it will still grow, then you can go ahead with it, else ... don't buy when it's high.

Furthermore, always have to consider the buy and sell rate in your calculation.
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Yeah, it's not something where you can just put in and forget about it for two years or whatever. If you know when the exchange rate is low, and when it's high, then you can try it. You can make a whole lot more than FD, but then you can lose a whole lot more too.

This post has been edited by wodenus: Jun 8 2007, 11:15 AM
wodenus
post Apr 16 2008, 04:29 PM

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I calculated 5 year returns (oanda.com has historical prices) -- turns out you lose about 25% in 5 years with NZD. So annualized it's about 5% loss per year. If we assume interest rate is 8.5% p.a. we're looking at a real interest rate of about 3.5% per year, and that's before slippage.

Not worth it if you ask me smile.gif

wodenus
post Apr 16 2008, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 16 2008, 04:30 PM)
I don't know about local bank, but those foreign banks like Citi, Standard Chartered, OCBC etc, you don't need to convert back, you can auto-renew it until whenever you wish, be it 1 month ot 2 months or 1 year.

Therefore, it is a place for one to diversify FD money, but not a place for one to gain little bit extra from the interest rate. Instead put all FD in RM, one can put in AUD, NZD, GBP, Euro to hedge against potential RM depreciation.


Added on April 16, 2008, 4:34 pm

I think you get it wrong already. (or should be the other way round, as Rm does depreciate against NZD about 20+%)

Around 2003, NZD was trading at 2.05-2.22 range. Now NZD is 2.50 currently. If one put NZD 5 years back, one actually gain through NZD appreciation plus interest earned.

RM is actually very poor compared to all major currencies except against USD. Don't be fooled by RM appreciated against USD from Rm3.60 to 3.15 currently, it is mainly because of USD plunging not because of Rm appreciating. In fact, RM is actually depreciating against major currencies like Yen, Euro, AUD, GBP even NZD.
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Okay this is how I calculate :

Say capital 50,000.

I'm using the price history from March 1 03 to 16 Apr 08.

The lowest conversion rate is 0.35370, so if you convert you get 50000x0.35370 = 17,685 NZD

Now let's invert the exchange rates and look at the price history again.

The lowest conversion rate is 2.04420, so if you convert you get 17,685x2.04420 = 36,151.67 RM

So net loss = 50,000 - 36,151.67 = 13,848.33 (27.7%) or about 5.5% a year annualized.

Interest is 8.5% p.a so net interest is 8.5 - 5.5 = 3% p.a.

What am I doing wrong here ? smile.gif

wodenus
post Apr 16 2008, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 16 2008, 05:24 PM)
I dont know how u get ur rates.
But mine from Yahoo finance shows
1/04 - 0.47

4/08 - 0.40

1/04 - RM1 = NZD 0.47 you bought
4/08 - RM1.175  = NZD 0.47

How can you make losses? blink.gif  blink.gif
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Go to oanda.com -- it's in the FX history section. Yours is not so valid because you randomly pick two days. Mine is a worst-case situation, you pick the two lowest conversion rates.

wodenus
post Apr 16 2008, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 16 2008, 05:31 PM)
Friend, you are mess up on this case. The lowest 2.04420 is during 2003 time. Now is 2.50. So you only lose 25% if you are origin of NZD aka mean you convert your NZD to RM at 2003 and convert back to NZD at present time

For simple scenario,

On March 2003, if you have RM 50K, with the rate around 2003, let say you manage to convert it at 2.10 (2003 was traded and hovering around that price), you get NZD 23,809.
Then if you keep for 5 years. now with NZD rate at 2.50, if you convert back to RM, it will be 23,809 x 2.50 = 59,522.

So you gain RM9,552 on your RM50K
It is not taking of account of interest rate you gain during this 5 years.

Don't get me wrong, I am not promoting foreign currency FD, just to clarify the issue.
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I think I got it.. thanks smile.gif anyone calculated worst case for RM/NZD with 8.25% FD rate ?

This post has been edited by wodenus: Apr 16 2008, 06:03 PM
wodenus
post Apr 16 2008, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(weichong @ Apr 16 2008, 05:59 PM)
saw your previous post, haha.


tongue.gif

QUOTE(cherroy)
I don't know about local bank, but those foreign banks like Citi, Standard Chartered, OCBC etc, you don't need to convert back, you can auto-renew it until whenever you wish, be it 1 month ot 2 months or 1 year.

Therefore, it is a place for one to diversify FD money, but not a place for one to gain little bit extra from the interest rate. Instead put all FD in RM, one can put in AUD, NZD, GBP, Euro to hedge against potential RM depreciation.

anyway, cherroy, the banks you mention here, the interest rate is 7-9% for New Zealand ?


Most banks are 7-9 for NZD I think. But what about slippage ?


This post has been edited by wodenus: Apr 16 2008, 06:04 PM
wodenus
post Apr 16 2008, 06:17 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 16 2008, 06:14 PM)
NZ interest rate is 8.25%. So mostly banks can offer 8.25% or lower, otherwise, if higher they are making a loss from it, so they might need a way to compensate it, like through exchange rate (buy & sell slippage of 2-3%).
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Don't understand slippage much. What does slippage mean ? tongue.gif


This post has been edited by wodenus: Apr 16 2008, 06:19 PM
wodenus
post Apr 17 2008, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(assaji @ Apr 17 2008, 11:11 AM)
We're referring to the spread between the bank buying and selling the foreign currency which is about 2.7%. so if you put in foreign currency FD, it should be long term of at least 2 years to minimize this effect, assuming forex rates do not move significantly. 

PB bank presently offers 9% p.a.  At this rate you double your money in 8 years.  Between NZ$ and Rm, I'm willing to place a fair bet on NZ.
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Provided that they have an 8-year term correct ? whicyh bank has more than 1-year terms ? they have 5-year local FDs but not 5-year foregin currency FDs tongue.gif


This post has been edited by wodenus: Apr 17 2008, 11:57 AM
wodenus
post Apr 17 2008, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 17 2008, 11:46 AM)
You can ask for some discount (1-2 cents) either on the 'buy/sell' side if your amount is large enough.

Another way to avoid the slippage and get the spot rate is using DCI structure product then you can get away the slippage on both sell and buy side. But DCI normally is 100K and above.
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Which bank offers Forex DCI ?

wodenus
post Aug 12 2008, 08:19 AM

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QUOTE(map @ Aug 12 2008, 12:28 AM)
i think foreign fd is not a feasible way of expanding your money's worth. it helps protect your money's value only at best. furthermore, the term 'fd' is misleading, because it doesn't take into account the change in currency rates  tongue.gif are u interested in the new zealand dollar? need to first question why the interest rate is so high for the NZD in the first place ...
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Hmm.. all your blog pix look better than your avatar pix smile.gif anyway good point, why is the interest rate so high ? smile.gif

wodenus
post Aug 13 2008, 06:04 AM

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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 08:43 AM)
attract investment in that country la...duh~

if anyone of you bother to do research n some calculation u wont post that kind of reply    - -"
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Interesting opinion. The interest rate for USD is maybe 2.5% now. Does that mean they don't want people to invest in the US ? smile.gif

wodenus
post Aug 13 2008, 12:07 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 13 2008, 09:12 AM)
There are lot of factors for a country central bank or in US is Fed to decide the interest rate policy. Generally primary concern would be economic growth and inflatin situation.

You can't raise interest rate is the economy situation is in bad shape especially in US finance instituitions are under great stress because of credit crisis and subprime woes. But on the other hand, they can't let the inflation situatin get out of hand which affect the confidence issue on the particular currency.
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All of this does not mean that lower interest rates attract more investment, right ?


This post has been edited by wodenus: Aug 13 2008, 12:12 PM
wodenus
post Nov 10 2008, 02:33 AM

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QUOTE(David83 @ Nov 1 2008, 08:34 PM)
DCI? Dual Currency Investment?

Here's a product from Maybank:

http://www.maybank2u.com.my/mbb_info/m2u/p.../INV-Investment
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Wow, I didn't know you had 3 milion smile.gif


Added on November 10, 2008, 2:47 am
QUOTE(Norns @ Nov 10 2008, 01:46 AM)
Can i take out my Efixed deposit money if its just 1~2 months ?

If yes, how long it would take ? instantly ? n whats the procedure

notworthy.gif
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Grief.. five minutes with a banker could have answered these questions. They'll probably impose a penalty.


Added on November 10, 2008, 2:55 am
QUOTE(calvin00cool @ Oct 4 2008, 03:20 AM)
hmm...i just checked it out fr pbb...

when the FCY FD reached maturity,u will not need to convert back to RM (ur Aus money still at AUs) but instead,u can proceed to choose ur option to change the duration term. The Bank applied a NON-AUATO renewal on the first renewal FCY FD sheet  only because customer are given the special interest. Auto -Renewal only appllied after the first sheet reaches maturity.

i just placed an AUS FCY FD today at forex exchange counter rate 2.725 for 1 month (7.0+1.0 speacial rate=8.0%).

hopefully it'll get to my target benchmark before i withdraw it  smile.gif
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MYR/AUD is at 5-year highs. It's almost vertical. So hopefully the AUD won't crash within the first term (or am I looking at the wrong chart?)

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/currency/conve...=AUD&amt=1&t=1y

Tell me if I'm looking at the wrong chart because it seems kind of high to be buying now.


This post has been edited by wodenus: Nov 10 2008, 02:55 AM
wodenus
post Nov 10 2008, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 10 2008, 09:29 AM)
Yes, MYR/AUD is at 5 years high, means that AUD is at 5 years low. FOr AUD/MYR, it has plunged down form 2.90-3.00 to now around 2.30-2.40 due to global financial crisis and commodities bubble bursting.

MYR/AUD chart is invert with AUD/MYR. Normally people look at AUD/MYR as your base currency is MYR.
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Oh thx for that.


This post has been edited by wodenus: Nov 15 2008, 05:52 PM
wodenus
post Nov 15 2008, 06:10 PM

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calvin00cool placed an an AUD FCFD at 2.725 for one month on Oct 4. The exact quote is below

QUOTE
hmm...i just checked it out fr pbb...

when the FCY FD reached maturity,u will not need to convert back to RM (ur Aus money still at AUs) but instead,u can proceed to choose ur option to change the duration term. The Bank applied a NON-AUATO renewal on the first renewal FCY FD sheet only because customer are given the special interest. Auto -Renewal only appllied after the first sheet reaches maturity.

i just placed an AUS FCY FD today at forex exchange counter rate 2.725 for 1 month (7.0+1.0 speacial rate=8.0%).

hopefully it'll get to my target benchmark before i withdraw it


Link is here : http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...20&p=20368247&#

Let's calculate the results :

The first term of the FD is one month, and then there's a forced uplifting. He placed it Oct 4, so it would be uplifted Nov 4. On November 4 the price was 2.3881 (from Oanda.) Assuming this happens, we'll see how it went. We'll assume Rm50,000.

Rm50,000 converted into AUD = Rm50,000 x 0.36980 = AUD18,490

Total Interest Earned = (AUD18,490 x 8%)/12 = AUD123.26

Total at end of term = AUD18,490+AUD123.26 = AUD18,613.26

AUD18,613 converted into MYR = AUD18,613 x 2.38880 = Rm44.463.35

Total Loss in RM = 50.000-44463.35 = 5536.55

Total Loss (%) = (5536.55/50000) * 100 = 11.07%

He just lost, in one month, what would take two and a half years (at current FD rates) to make. And he actually works at the bank.

This post has been edited by wodenus: Nov 16 2008, 12:06 AM
wodenus
post Nov 15 2008, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(Optiplex330 @ Nov 15 2008, 08:24 PM)
Standard Chartered and HSBC has something similar. The minimum amount is much lower.

This is how it work, using this example:
Assuming you pair RM vs AUD. Contract is for 1 week. Interest @ 70% annual interest. AUD=RM2.30 now. Target price is AUD=RM2.27.

1 week later at maturity, several things can happen:
1. AUD higher than the Target Price of RM2.27. Bank give your money back in RM plus 70% interest.
2. AUD at Target Price of RM2.27. Bank give your money back in AUD + 70% interest. Converted at 2.27
3. AUD at 1.90. Bank give your money back in AUD + 70% interest. But still converted at 2.27 because this is the contracted price.

I reckon it's a very worthwhile thing to consider if you do not mind getting back your money in RM or foreign currency (for example, you have son in Australia studying).

The way I looked at it, you can only lose out if No.3 scenario happens. But then, if you need to buy AUD right now to send to your son in Australia, converting at 2.27 is still better than converting at 2.30.

You can also enter contract form 1 week to several month. Different interest rate. Range from 70% to single digit %.


Added on November 15, 2008, 8:28 pmSo far, the best website that provides currency charts are:

1. http://www.ozforex.com.au/
On left hand side menu, select "Long Term Charts". Date goes back maximum 10 yrs.

2. http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/plot.html
Data can go as far back as 27 years.
Anyone know any other good site for charts?


Added on November 15, 2008, 8:30 pmCan anyone tell me how to add charts onto this thread?
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Wouldn't they lose a lot of money that way ? smile.gif Are you sure you won't get back the principal at 1.90 if (3) happens? and which bank will give you 70% interest, even for DCI ? smile.gif

Thanks for the chart links tho smile.gif


This post has been edited by wodenus: Nov 16 2008, 12:21 AM
wodenus
post Nov 16 2008, 10:46 PM

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QUOTE(Optiplex330 @ Nov 16 2008, 04:54 PM)
I knew of RM50K, 100K and 250K contract subject to some condition. Go ask around.
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Anyway I calculated, even in best case conditions you'd make like an extra 10% in 5 years or so. Which is only a lot of money if you have 10 million capital smile.gif


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