I never say fund managers are gods. It comes to a stage where i think i should leave my investment problems to the fund managers and i can concentrate on my routine jobs to earn an income. If you have low regards for other professionals such as fund managers, it is up to you. They have track records and i am happy with it.

I believe one should argue :-

a) basing the facts rather assumptions. For example if oil palm price is on high side, then you should not assume  plantation companies will make less money at the end of the day ( growth factor)

b) GDP or forecasted consensus GDP figure. Support with facts if you do not agree.

c) Track Records. If fund managers have good track records, respect them rather than passing unjust statements . Better if you provide your own investment track records here. A person with a small fund can always manage better than fund managers with billions of funds. But The freedom of webs do not give you right to criticise other people especially the specialists.

d) If you say either share mkt will go up or come down  anyway . Then you are protecting yourself without basis.

You should not give yourself the right to change the  future economy ( again assumptions) to  say  things according to your own ways.

If you change things here and there, basing on your own assumptions, then you are always right.

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Added on January 12, 2008, 8:06 pm

The P/E of Year 1997 is based on Year 1996 earnings and not taking into accounts of currency losses. many companies have suffered huge losses during Year 1997. Companies at that times did not report Quarterly profits and biased. PE ratio as indicated showed highest 29 times acording to Year 1996 profits ? If adjusted to Year 1997 quarterly earnings, PE ratio of 40 times is justified. A lot of arguments over this area. Prudent is the key decision factor. Share prices do reflect the future earnings of companies such as palm oil prices. Some use adjusted pe and some use pure historical pe.  For example, last Year, there is an airline reported "wrong" profits, if you use adjusted pe, then you should come out with diff investment decisions.

If companies are to report better 2007 results and higher Year 2008 forecasts, then it is reasonable to use Year 2007 earnings. If companies forecast less favorable Year 2008 results, weight is also given here. Worst case or so called conservative approach.

US listed companies do have to provide earnings warnings to public, what about Malaysia ? Events such as Sub Prime issue will have impact not only the earnings and also can write off  the capital of listed companies. Hence the prices of shares drop. Likewise the CEO of US co could be forced out of office if show poor earnings. Hence, the Earnings and Price are well connected and important.

PM is only allowed to invest in Overseas from last year. Now the govenment again disallows fund fr EPf to be invested in Overseas, meaning their hands are tight. Therefore, it is fair to compare Apple with Apple, and do not  use foreign funds as the yardsticks. PM is prohibited from investing in Sub Prime sectors compared to US funds, but it is good for the interest of investors. PM do compare their returns with KLCI for local funds. It is only fair that you read before making a conclusion and passing general statements. And if think 5 years are not good enough, then take the 10 years returns.

One should take into the consideration of good and bad. If a fund could gain 200% a year, then it could suffer similar losses later, like funds invested in sub prime sector.

This part of discussion is related to PM or funds invested in unit trust. A DIY by yourself directly into KLSE should belong elsewhere.

Always useful to hear other opinions, even from a Unit Trust agent. 

I always thought investing in consumerism is the best, because no matter how bad the economy is, people still need to carry on with their daily expenses (e.g. pay for food). Additionally, most youngsters will still visit their local Starbucks and McDs regardless of the economy, yeah ?

That's how I think lah. 

I am new and have some question regard PM fund:

1) I heard ppl say that dun buy a fund that don't finished selling after lauched certain period of time. Example: Fund size is 1.5 billion, after 1 yr of lauching only managed to sell 0.5 billion.  They believe the fund may not be as good/attractive as other fast selling funds. So not encourage to buy. Is this true

As with our own political uncertainty, it would be forgotten or solved soon and market bull would return hopefully in the next few years.
So by stating just political instability, it should not be an obstacle for people to enter the market.
As for Singapore, loses involving sub prime issue would recover somehow, so it is also a short term volatility. I believe a country would still have room for improvement as none would consider themselves "matured" and stop economical growth. As long as there's growth, it could affect the stock market positively.

Just another of my 2 cents. Please share if you have a different view from me
Yes, China goverment have taken a few steps one at a time carefully not to burst the bubble.
Since China's bubble have grown over the last few years, it would take the government longer time to cool the market down bit by bit. It will have to be done at a much slower pace because if they don't, we would see another round of chaotic sell-off. They would have to weigh the ill-effects of it and make the critical decisions.

No worries Cherroy bro, anyone can join in this discussion
I am just wondering if this GE is a fair one. Of course by implementing the single tier system is eating up a huge chunk of investors' money, but they did gradually decrease the corporate tax. This move might only affect those in the upper class and business people, but it does also improve the bottomline of businesses. If this is the case, then the government shouldn't be blamed in the first place but it's the business owners are to be blamed. Also by implementing those mega projects, it creates an abundance of employment opportunity for the people. All these should translate into higher wages for the employees. That is why I am a little surprised at BN's loss in the GE.

The matter of fuel subsidy is still in the mist, but I also agree that it would increase sometime soon. The rich is getting richer but at the same time it is their responsibility to spread the savings and income they are receiving. The projects and the cut in corporate tax has just been implemented, but they have not really taken off. That is why peole in the street have not felt the impact of it. They might be thinking of the same thing that the rich is getting richer, that is why they made this verdict. The GE this time around is a little disappointing because the people have not waited to see the outcome of it before making their 'real' decision.

I had invest in PCSF . May I know did PCSF will pay dividen ?

bcos I dint hv the PCSF prospectus in hand now , so need u all help ...

Thanks...

ok. let discuss this. Why div is not pointless. It doesn't increse the total value of the fund, agreed.

BUT, if you opt to reinvest your given div, you are investing with zero cost, ie. no service charge, unlike you investing your fresh money. Hence, you get more units with cheaper cost. Then when you are given div next year again, you are being paid based on the total number of units that you have. Reinvest your div will allow you to enjoy compounding effect - ie. div next year is being paid not only on the initial invested units but also the distributed div portion, and so on and so forth

Regarding the percentage profit, basically it doesn't affect your calculation if you opt to reinvest your money again. Only you have more units, that's it.

Afterall, it really is not hard to work on the profit percentage even after the distribution. Just check with your agent. Agents should have the system to tell you your fund performance anytime.

Theoritically is the same if the fund manager reinvest the amount. But we are seeing many different type of investors. Some older folk will let to have their yearly dividend as pocket money. Those who dont' need it, then just re-invest

So, it really is not pointless to some.

yes. but just a point to share here. withdrawing will lessen your invested units, which ultimately will reduce your next div entitlement which paid based on units.

Bond/Fixed Income funds have been dropping badly recently.

* Public Bond Fund
* Public Islamic Bond Fund
* Pb Fixed Income Fund

Anybody got any clues why?

If you do not need the money now...i would advise you to hold it for the moment.

Selling now at the lowest point of the market might not b too good...selling will just lock in your loss.

I would suggest of switching it into bond fund 1st....and wait for the right time to go back in.
Another way will be continually topping up to capitalise on the low pricing to lower down your cost.

But if you seriously need the money urgently, then selling it just the last option.

cherroy bro, your comment is SO right. I agree with them mostly.
But I would like to give a comment though. You said the "price" of bond funds will drop if BNM increases the IR, I agree with that. But price aside, the yield would still be the same, so it is still stable. If price goes down more, I would be more than happy to buy more as I know I would be getting better yield at lower price After all, the capital would still be repaid (if the company is still alive ) at maturity, so the lower the price, the better it would be for us, isn't it? Well, lets not talk about those that liquidate early, then yes the price "will" affect their investment. But for long term players like us, that shouldn't be a problem. Did I get it right?

In fact, what I observe is, after 97/98, many people is too scared about investment, and the market is not booming until 2006. The KLCI stay around 600-800 most of the time (although there is some high points at 1999 and 2002). People still remember about the 97/98 until the KLCI go up to 1000 at 2006, people start to think about investment...then early 2007 only really go in investment, and market is booming...so most of the people actually only dare to go in when the market is really high (which people think the rising trend is very clear). But, what happen next? Market is going up for 1 year, then drop dramastically to 800++ in 1 year time. That's why most of the people said cannot earn money from investment. They always buy high sell low.