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lee82gx
post Feb 16 2021, 02:39 PM

I guess I'm special
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From: Penang


QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Feb 10 2021, 11:40 PM)
ARK is great at marketing but there are other active ETF's that are in the same range of performance.
YOLO ETF which has returned around 150% in a year or even the SoFi Gig Economy ETF which has returned around 120% in a year.

https://advisorshares.com/etfs/yolo/

https://www.sofi.com/invest/etfs/gige/
These all are still short term returns and if you are concerned about tail risk then there is an ETF that caters to that:

https://www.simplify.us/etfs/spd-simplify-u...e-convexity-etf

user posted image
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This SPD fund does not seem to perform as expected (at least did not work during the pre-Nov 2020 draw down before election, and the GME drawdown last month)...or is it only performing during more extreme drawdowns...? blush.gif

Generally, we are all attracted to the ARK(K,W,etc) due to the impressive returns. Are you expecting this fund to continue outperforming the market or not?

I really like your balanced viewpoint regarding Cathie / ARK.

Personally my viewpoint is nothing good lasts forever, everybody is right once in a while. So, I am only invested in medium to short term with ARKK and with limited exposure.
lee82gx
post Feb 21 2021, 10:44 AM

I guess I'm special
*******
Senior Member
3,117 posts

Joined: Jul 2005
From: Penang


QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Feb 21 2021, 12:57 AM)
Meant to protect against extreme drawadowns and not garden variety 10% drawdowns.

Far out of the money put like below only worked during the March drawadown last year.

user posted image
For Ark, it will last as long as current market dynamics last.

For one, their AUM is ballooning quite rapidly and as Buffet says easier to compound with 1 million than 10 billion.
On the market dynamics, lets take a look at Uber and Palantir.

During Uber's IPO demand wasn't there and not many wanted it above 40 but fast forward two years on, people's minds have changed.

Similar story for Palantir where they were struggling in the secondary market and now it is the talk of the town. Can't complain since I own Palantir but important to understand and plan ahead for changes in market dynamics.
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What are your indicators for a change in market dynamics? A shift towards more stable valuations, ie lower demand for tech like uber / palantir? Or a weird unexplained black Swan?

What will your response be, importantly?

I suppose I'm asking you to Crystal ball haha.

lee82gx
post May 12 2021, 10:26 AM

I guess I'm special
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Senior Member
3,117 posts

Joined: Jul 2005
From: Penang


Trying to predict the bottom of a share is a pointless exercise.
lee82gx
post May 12 2021, 04:24 PM

I guess I'm special
*******
Senior Member
3,117 posts

Joined: Jul 2005
From: Penang


QUOTE(dwRK @ May 12 2021, 11:06 AM)
it is fulfilling and confidence boosting to be able to read the market... especially top and bottom...

majority never try to learn... or sucks at it

whilst you can never buy the absolute bottom...  able to buy near the bottom pivot is not pointless wink.gif
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I profess to suck... And I absolutely don't believe there is a point to do this, when cathie is actively buying and selling every damn day. What momentum there may be, will be disrupted immediately when she sells a winner and buys a loser and vice versa....
lee82gx
post May 12 2021, 07:32 PM

I guess I'm special
*******
Senior Member
3,117 posts

Joined: Jul 2005
From: Penang


QUOTE(dwRK @ May 12 2021, 06:37 PM)
I believe knowing both FA and TA will give the best outcome

billions of people actively trade everyday, not just cathie... the charts show the outcome...and tell a story
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I know. Can't argue with 50 million Frenchmen.

 

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