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 When should I sapu Banks counters?, Public Bank, Maybank and CIMB

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moosset
post Mar 18 2020, 10:43 AM

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Battered share market sees EPF losing RM23b

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2020/03/17/...f-losing-rm23b/

THE Employees Provident Fund’s (EPF) investment value in 219 public listed companies fell by as much as RM23 billion since January this year as the novel coronavirus pandemic hammers the stock market.

A check by The Malaysian Reserve yesterday showed that the total equity value of EPF’s stocks declined to RM135.6 billion compared to RM158.5 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019, erasing a staggering RM22.9 billion in total value. Only 42 stocks posted an increase in investment value for EPF in the same period.

The local stock market, like all equities, had been battered after the coronavirus became a pandemic. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) dropped to 1,280.63 points yesterday, the lowest in more than a decade.

This year alone, the index had shed 19.39% while against the one year return, it fell 21.05%.

The stock market has been going through its biggest fall since 2010 as investors scurried for safe haven instruments following the double threat of a coronavirus-driven global recession and the Saudi-Russia oil-price war.

Foreign investors dumped local equities as fears about the worsening worldwide economic slowdown. Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase oil production to drive Russia and the US out of the market sent further shockwaves into the equity markets.

The EPF’s 10 worst performing stocks in last three months are Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd (PetChem), Sime Darby Plantation Bhd, Public Bank Bhd, Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB), RHB Bank Bhd, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Hong Leong Bank Bhd, Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank), Hartalega Holdings Bhd and Malaysia Building Society Bhd.

By industry sector, EPF’s largest current exposures are in the financials (38.4%) and consumer staples (14.9%).

The sector that took the heaviest beating was banking, with a total of RM7.75 billion decrease yearto-date (YTD).

Interest in banking stocks plummeted as world financial regulators cut interest rates to keep their economies floating.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) had cut a total 50 basis points (bps) this year alone.

According to Bloomberg’s data, EPF’s stakes in Public Bank dropped the most, amounting to RM1.4 billion within the last three months, followed by CIMB Group (RM1.3 billion), Hong Leong Bank (RM1.24 billion) and Maybank (RM1.17 billion).

Oil and gas (O&G) stock PetChem was the worst hit stock with RM1.63 billion lost in EPF’s investment value since January 2020.

The EPF in early March raised its stake in the company to above 8%, comprising of 640.5 million shares in PetChem after acquiring additional 5.81 million shares. It is believed EPF bought the stake from PetChem parent company Petroliam Nasional Bhd. The state-owned energy firm reduced its shareholding in a few of its subsidiaries late last year.

The increase in stake has led the stock to surge in stock price but the oil price war dragged PetChem’s share price down by 34%. As of yesterday, the company is trading at RM4.30 a share, valuing the company at RM34.4 billion.

icemanfx
post Mar 18 2020, 12:44 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 18 2020, 09:01 AM)
When Steve Jobs passed, Apple's share price didn't fall much (or at all).
Share price will depend on profitability. If good management is chosen, they will steer the company into profitability. Hence, share price will increase.

Berkshire is different as its profitability depends on Warren's and Charlie's (who is also old) stewardship. They are the main masterminds.
Warren is also seen as an icon of Berkshire. Many Berkshire shareholders attend its AGM just to see Warren.


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Berkshire is a investment holding company, profits is collectively from companies they owned.
hft
post Mar 18 2020, 12:45 PM

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QUOTE(gsem984 @ Mar 17 2020, 11:01 AM)
I have lot of cash. Want to buy bank counters bcoz i think they are essential business wont bankrupt.

Target:
Public Bank - RM12
Maybank - RM6
CIMB - RM3

once hit, buy at least 50 lot each.

Bincangkan.
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Go ahead. But bhy not buy crude oil, easy to digest the price based on supply demand.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 18 2020, 12:44 PM)
Berkshire is a investment holding company, profits is collectively from companies they owned.
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Yes but it's actively managed no?
batman1234
post Mar 18 2020, 01:46 PM

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still need waiting.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 07:43 PM

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I just realised that other banks had already fallen a lot and more than Maybank. In fact, Maybank gives the lowest capital return biggrin.gif
I guess I'll be skipping Maybank until it falls more.
moosset
post Mar 18 2020, 08:24 PM

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Yggdrasil so is PBB better than MBB?
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 08:35 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 18 2020, 08:24 PM)
Yggdrasil so is PBB better than MBB?
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I'm targeting 19 stocks in total. For now, Maybank, AmBank, RHB are not on my list because it has little capital gain upside.

Eyeing Public Bank, BIMB, Takaful, CIMB but still need to read financial statements. MBSB and Alliance Bank might be risky but return is very much greater.

Looking at non-banking stocks too.
moosset
post Mar 18 2020, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 18 2020, 08:35 PM)
I'm targeting 19 stocks in total. For now, Maybank, AmBank, RHB are not on my list because it has little capital gain upside.

Eyeing Public Bank, BIMB, Takaful, CIMB but still need to read financial statements. MBSB and Alliance Bank might be risky but return is very much greater.

Looking at non-banking stocks too.
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did Teh ever mention what's the plan after his death to his shareholders? I think Buffett has some sort of plans in place, not sure about PBB.

Teh's children are not interested in his empire, right?
numblink
post Mar 18 2020, 09:37 PM

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Any WhatsApp group in here?
mr_tuzki
post Mar 18 2020, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(numblink @ Mar 18 2020, 09:37 PM)
Any WhatsApp group in here?
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You / I can make one if theres enough interest. Whatsapp / Telegram
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 18 2020, 09:16 PM)
did Teh ever mention what's the plan after his death to his shareholders? I think Buffett has some sort of plans in place, not sure about PBB.

Teh's children are not interested in his empire, right?
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I think no latest news since 2018 but I think they are working on it.
Here's from 2018's Annual Report.

user posted image

QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 18 2020, 09:16 PM)
Teh's children are not interested in his empire, right?
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I don't think so. But this can be seen as a good thing. Means they follow meritocracy not nepotism.
Genting you see family fighting over control and bailing out family members.
Sunway is alright since JC is grooming his children to take over and they did a pretty good job.

icemanfx
post Mar 18 2020, 10:50 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 18 2020, 09:16 PM)
did Teh ever mention what's the plan after his death to his shareholders? I think Buffett has some sort of plans in place, not sure about PBB.

Teh's children are not interested in his empire, right?
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Bank senior management need approval from bnm and none of his immediate family has. his successor is likely a seat warmer.

icemanfx
post Mar 18 2020, 10:52 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 18 2020, 10:06 PM)
I think no latest news since 2018 but I think they are working on it.
Here's from 2018's Annual Report.

user posted image
I don't think so. But this can be seen as a good thing. Means they follow meritocracy not nepotism.
Genting you see family fighting over control and bailing out family members.
Sunway is alright since JC is grooming his children to take over and they did a pretty good job.
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sunway jc not nepotism?
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 18 2020, 10:52 PM)
sunway jc not nepotism?
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JC did good job at teaching his children. Any complaints?
icemanfx
post Mar 18 2020, 11:49 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 18 2020, 11:00 PM)
JC did good job at teaching his children. Any complaints?
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What about lim goh tong?
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 18 2020, 11:49 PM)
What about lim goh tong?
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? Do you read news?
icemanfx
post Mar 19 2020, 12:10 AM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 18 2020, 11:59 PM)
? Do you read news?
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Only selected news services.
moosset
post Mar 19 2020, 08:39 AM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Mar 18 2020, 10:06 PM)
I think no latest news since 2018 but I think they are working on it.
Here's from 2018's Annual Report.

user posted image
I don't think so. But this can be seen as a good thing. Means they follow meritocracy not nepotism.
Genting you see family fighting over control and bailing out family members.
Sunway is alright since JC is grooming his children to take over and they did a pretty good job.
*
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 18 2020, 10:50 PM)
Bank senior management need approval from bnm and none of his immediate family has. his successor is likely a seat warmer.
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I'm surprised nobody asked this at the shareholders' meeting.

Yggdrasil maybe can buy PBB and attend the AGM, and ask them directly. laugh.gif brows.gif I'm sure this question is on everyone's mind.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 19 2020, 08:51 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 19 2020, 08:39 AM)
I'm surprised nobody asked this at the shareholders' meeting.

Yggdrasil maybe can buy PBB and attend the AGM, and ask them directly.  laugh.gif  brows.gif I'm sure this question is on everyone's mind.
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Shy leh. I'm nobody. Don't dare go in front of mic. biggrin.gif

More info from 2018 AGM minutes

user posted image
user posted image

This post has been edited by Yggdrasil: Mar 19 2020, 08:57 AM

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