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 When should I sapu Banks counters?, Public Bank, Maybank and CIMB

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Yggdrasil
post Mar 17 2020, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(gsem984 @ Mar 17 2020, 11:01 AM)
I have lot of cash. Want to buy bank counters bcoz i think they are essential business wont bankrupt.

Target:
Public Bank - RM12
Maybank - RM6
CIMB - RM3

once hit, buy at least 50 lot each.

Bincangkan.
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I'm targeting:
RHB (RM3.96)
Public Bank (RM12.23)
Bank Islam (RM2.72)
Maybank (RM5.99)
ABMB (RM1.69)
AmBank (RM2.46)
AeonCR (RM7.00)
CIMB (RM3.20)

QUOTE(bronkos @ Mar 17 2020, 11:03 AM)
Maybank 6? keep dreaming
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Possible. Never underestimate fear in the stock market. RM4 maybe impossible la.

Yesterday and today supermarkets and morning markets all finished sapued by panic Malaysians. Stock market high chance they panic also.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 17 2020, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(bronkos @ Mar 17 2020, 12:09 PM)
If that's the target price then be prepared for Great Depression.

I would rather short correction so we all could get back to normal lives.
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Not target price (as in analyst' target price) but target price for me to enter.
Meaning the upside is higher.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 17 2020, 12:17 PM

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QUOTE(bronkos @ Mar 17 2020, 12:15 PM)
and good luck with it.
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Thanks. Once more loans are impaired/non-performing in 2020 Q1 report, probably won't need luck.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 17 2020, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(lonely66 @ Mar 17 2020, 12:21 PM)
Public bank > maybank
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Both safe but Public Bank has higher Price-to-book value than Maybank. That's why it's falling faster.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 17 2020, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(lonely66 @ Mar 17 2020, 12:27 PM)
But pb can go very high n they give out good dividends once economy recover foreign investors will buy pb n not maybank
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It's subjective. Anything can happen that's why need target few banks not just 1 or 2. Foreign banks in US are already quite cheap. For now, they rather buy US bank at cheaper price than a cheap Malaysian bank.

Public Bank is still a good bank. I have a family member who held around 25,000 units (worth >RM500k at 2018 price) of Public Bank. I believe she is still holding.

This post has been edited by Yggdrasil: Mar 17 2020, 12:40 PM
Yggdrasil
post Mar 17 2020, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Mar 17 2020, 02:07 PM)
Aiyoh...it went down to Rm1.80. BUT what was the NBV at the time????    laugh.gif
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RM3.955
user posted image
Yggdrasil
post Mar 17 2020, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 17 2020, 02:43 PM)
wah .... so much??  shocking.gif

so is she automatically a premier banking client?
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Definitely but I think she's with CIMB not Public Bank although she's holding Public Bank shares because she gave out CIMB angpow packets.
Her net worth quite a lot. I got to know the no. of units she held in Public Bank because I so happened saw her dividend slip.
She holds quite a number of units in IGBREIT and YTLREIT too. Maybank also got. I think she held Maybank and Public Bank since before 2000.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 17 2020, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Mar 17 2020, 02:58 PM)
Did you buy it then? I did.

Look at the earnings!  drool.gif
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Nope because I was too young to open a share account.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 17 2020, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Mar 17 2020, 03:02 PM)
oh...ok

I bought some at Rm2.50 at the time.
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Wah good bargain. thumbup.gif
Must be untung a lot.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 17 2020, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Mar 17 2020, 04:03 PM)
Whatever you want to buy, just buy choose 1 bank stock only rather than 3.  Choose other industry blue chips so that you don't put all your eggs in one basket and diversify your risks.
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Depends. If a person only has RM10k to invest, might as well stick to 4 stocks only.

If another person has >RM100k to invest, they can afford to diversify more into 15+ stocks. I'm personally going for around 15 in total.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 17 2020, 11:14 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 17 2020, 06:44 PM)
RM 2.50 to RM 9 over 13 years plus dividend.... how much is the CAGR?  hmm.gif ~12% (excl. dividend)? Really good!
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Nothing compares to Public Bank though.
I heard that if a person held Public Bank shares since IPO and never sold, that person already millionaire.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 12:36 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 18 2020, 12:03 AM)
but their IPO was in 1992, not 2008. Different time frame.....
in 2008, PBB was like RM 10. At its peak last year, about RM25. Without considering dividend, MBB is better, no?
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I believe Public Bank gave a higher return than Maybank because it rose higher between 2008-2019 than Maybank. Maybank was quite stagnant because it kept offering DRIPs.

https://fifthperson.com/4-reasons-why-publi...lionaire-today/

This person claims that if you invested RM15,000 into Public Bank shares at 1992 IPO and reinvested everything, you're a millionaire. But, RM15,000 is a lot.

QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 18 2020, 12:03 AM)
by the way, the other user said foreign investors prefer PBB over MBB. Why is that?
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People analyse bank stocks based on Net-interest-margin, Expense ratio, Price-to-book, Loan growth, Loan-to-Deposit ratio etc.

I'm quite sure Public Bank outperforms Maybank in most areas especially Expense ratio because it's a Chinese company (sorry for generalising but most of the employees are Chinese including major shareholders). Being a Chinaman company, it's very stingy and conservative cutting costs here and there. However, this is good for shareholders.

Chinese tend to be risk adverse too which explains their prudent and strict credit screening unlike banks like Alliance bank who lent to London Biscuits. In fact, I believe it's the toughest bank to get a credit card from. Maybank is strict too but has also lent out to companies like Tuaspring.

Maybank still has a lot of fanatics because it's synonymous to their 'National pride' just like MAS, Proton etc. They believe the government will bail them out if anything happens.

The good thing about Maybank is it has a strong no. of savings account among youngsters (20-30 years old). Almost everyone has a Maybank account. Public Bank is like for old uncle aunty but they are trying to change this.

Maybank is also not afraid to venture into Fintech, Duitnow etc. Public Bank used to be technology adverse but luckily is making changes. Otherwise, it will end up like the Kodak of banks.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 12:43 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Mar 18 2020, 12:34 AM)
P/S I actually think good idea to buy Berkshire now.. Let WB do the market timing.
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In the long run, I think Berkshire will not outperform the S&P500. Buffett even adviced his wife to invest in S&P500 when he's gone. In 2008 financial crisis, Berkshire's shares fell too. Nothing was spared. He's also not perfrct as he made some bad investments into Kraft, Tesco and initially didn't want to invest in Apple.

I'm just afraid of what will happen to the company after he's gone as the company is linked closely to Warren's personality and brain. Also, he's old. Anytime he can have a (god forbid) heart attack laugh.gif since he consumes McD for breakfast everyday.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 09:01 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 18 2020, 08:50 AM)
Except death and tax, nothing is forever certain. Similarly, what will happen to pbb after the chairman is no longer around?
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When Steve Jobs passed, Apple's share price didn't fall much (or at all).
Share price will depend on profitability. If good management is chosen, they will steer the company into profitability. Hence, share price will increase.

Berkshire is different as its profitability depends on Warren's and Charlie's (who is also old) stewardship. They are the main masterminds.
Warren is also seen as an icon of Berkshire. Many Berkshire shareholders attend its AGM just to see Warren.


Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 18 2020, 12:44 PM)
Berkshire is a investment holding company, profits is collectively from companies they owned.
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Yes but it's actively managed no?
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 07:43 PM

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I just realised that other banks had already fallen a lot and more than Maybank. In fact, Maybank gives the lowest capital return biggrin.gif
I guess I'll be skipping Maybank until it falls more.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 08:35 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 18 2020, 08:24 PM)
Yggdrasil so is PBB better than MBB?
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I'm targeting 19 stocks in total. For now, Maybank, AmBank, RHB are not on my list because it has little capital gain upside.

Eyeing Public Bank, BIMB, Takaful, CIMB but still need to read financial statements. MBSB and Alliance Bank might be risky but return is very much greater.

Looking at non-banking stocks too.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 18 2020, 09:16 PM)
did Teh ever mention what's the plan after his death to his shareholders? I think Buffett has some sort of plans in place, not sure about PBB.

Teh's children are not interested in his empire, right?
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I think no latest news since 2018 but I think they are working on it.
Here's from 2018's Annual Report.

user posted image

QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 18 2020, 09:16 PM)
Teh's children are not interested in his empire, right?
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I don't think so. But this can be seen as a good thing. Means they follow meritocracy not nepotism.
Genting you see family fighting over control and bailing out family members.
Sunway is alright since JC is grooming his children to take over and they did a pretty good job.

Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 18 2020, 10:52 PM)
sunway jc not nepotism?
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JC did good job at teaching his children. Any complaints?
Yggdrasil
post Mar 18 2020, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 18 2020, 11:49 PM)
What about lim goh tong?
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? Do you read news?

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