BAT stock has risen up significantly and people are going all "hype" out on the stock. However, I believe that would still be the current impact of illicit cigarettes on BAT market. My question is can it really go far as long as illicit cigarettes are not being tackled yet?

Based on actual facts that I know:

- 6 out of 10 cigarettes consumed in Malaysia is illicit as proven from the news as as well.

- The research house has a hold call on BAT, and slashed its price target on the share from RM19.20 to RM11.50 previously

- Illicit market doubled since the surge in excise duty in 2015 (33.5% in 2015 vs 63% in 2019)

A very summarized version on why my skepticism remains even though the growth is showing. Feel free to correct me as I would like to know more feedback from your side as well.

I dunno why u need to open a new thread when there is an existing one.

https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1121507/+140

But for BAT, I was in and now Im out. At prices below 12, value wise looked good. Technically, was very oversold. It hit a low of 10.22.

Now not that great but I would say below 15 the is still OK.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 23 2020, 07:47 PM

Ah i didnt know that! Still a newbie here. Anyhow, whats your thoughts for long term investment in BAT? Possible to invest long term and go past 35 like last time?

Tomolo drop like hell

BAT plunged today. I'm guessing because if BN wins, hopes of cracking down on illegal cigarettes is gone. Likewise, when PH won the GE in 2018, BAT price shot up.

Haha. U Must be delusional

??

Ahhh why do you think so? It is due to them being corrupted and getting the profit from illegal cigarettes? (Backdoor)

More like because they don't care to even do anything aka no enforcement

Overreaction on sin stock..

I still believe government will still need to act on this because the illicit ciggs still cover more than 60%. Hence only 40% of tax, the only reason they would want to act it solemnly because there is a large amount of money right there.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...-shadow-economy

Latest news including BAT:

The MNC has cast blame on illegal cigarette trade that it said currently makes up 63% of the total industry volume, up from 33.5% in 2015.“The legal (cigarette) industry has diminished by almost 40% in the span of four years since 2015 due to the illegal cigarettes trade.

Increase sin tax is no difference from killing the goose that lay golden eggs.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Mar 3 2020, 02:54 PM

The only difference is you cant eat sin tax, but you can eat that golden goose