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> Kenapa Rakyat hari hari tertipu PH? PLUS 18%

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SUSlurkingaround
post Jan 17 2020, 09:49 AM

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https://themalaysianreserve.com/2019/04/04/...2b-debt-to-pay/ ....... In 2016, the Rakyat paid about RM4,000 million or RM4 billion in tolls to PLUS.

Now got 18% discount on toll but 20-year extension to toll collection from 2038 to 2058. Apa erti ini.?
....... In simple math term, .......

18% discount = Rakyat save RM720 million per year for 18 years from 2020 to 2038 = save RM12,960 million over 18 years.

20-year extension = Rakyat have to pay RM3,280 million per year for 20 more years from 2038 to 2058 = pay RM65,600 million over 20 more years.

RM65,600 million - RM12,960 million = RM52,640 million.

So, this deal by Dr M will result in the Rakyat paying extra RM52,640 million to PLUS from 2038 to 2058 or extra RM3.2 billion per year.

Unless the RM falls in value by a few hundred % from 2020 to 2038, RM52.6 billion will still be a huge amount of money that the Rakyat will have to pay PLUS from 2038 to 2058, ie RM3.2 billion per year.

Eg in 2000, a DST house in PJ cost about RM500k and costs about RM800k today in 2020. So, RM3.2 billion in 2038 is about equivalent to RM2 billion today in 2020. RM52.6 billion in 2038 is about equivalent to RM33 billion today in 2020.

https://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...-due-next-year/
If factor in the 5% increase in toll rates every 3 years from 2020 to 2038 that PLUS has to forego with this new deal by Dr M, the RM52.6 billion figure will have to be subtracted by about RM5,400 million or RM5.4 billion, ie RM300 million X 18 years. This will still mean the Rakyat will be paying extra RM47.2 billion from 2038 to 2058, ie RM52.6 - RM5.4 billion.

NB: increase of 5% on the RM4 billion in annual tolls = RM200 million per year = averages out to about RM300 million per year over 18 years from 2020 to 2038.
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P S - (EDIT)Above figures need to be finetuned. The savings from the 18% toll discount of RM12,960 million in 2020 is equivalent to about RM32 billion in 2038. So, it's RM47.2 billion - RM32 billion = RM15.2 billion more toll to Rakyat in 2038, which is equivalent to about RM6 billion in 2020.
....... This RM6 billion figure may not be correct.
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This post has been edited by lurkingaround: Jan 21 2020, 01:09 AM
SUSlurkingaround
post Jan 17 2020, 10:00 AM

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https://themalaysianreserve.com/2019/10/14/...ers-to-benefit/

EPF paid about RM16 billion for a 49% stake in PLUS and got about RM0.5 billion in annual dividend. That's about a measly 3% annual return for the investment. Correct.?

It was more like EPF funds were used to benefit BN cronies who got fat profits from maintenance contracts with PLUS. This is BN 2.0.?

If you dun care as long as EPF got annual dividends from PLUS, then might as well let PLUS toll be forever and toll can increase 5% every 3 years.
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SUSlurkingaround
post Jan 17 2020, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(gundamsp01 @ Jan 17 2020, 08:48 AM)
as long as cheaper, i am ok
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It's more like the bank extend your car loan by 10 years by giving you 9% discount for your monthly instalments = the bank will still make more profits and you will still be paying more to the bank.
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SUSlurkingaround
post Jan 17 2020, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(lurkingaround @ Jan 17 2020, 09:49 AM)
https://themalaysianreserve.com/2019/04/04/...2b-debt-to-pay/ ....... In 2016, the Rakyat paid about RM4,000 million or RM4 billion in tolls to PLUS.

Now got 18% discount on toll but 20-year extension to toll collection from 2038 to 2058. Apa erti ini.?
....... In simple math term, .......

18% discount = Rakyat save RM720 million per year for 18 years from 2020 to 2038 = save RM12,960 million over 18 years.

20-year extension = Rakyat have to pay RM3,280 million per year for 20 more years from 2038 to 2058 = pay RM65,600 million over 20 more years.

RM65,600 million - RM12,960 million = RM52,640 million.

So, this deal by Dr M will result in the Rakyat paying extra RM52,640 million to PLUS from 2038 to 2058 or extra RM3.2 billion per year.

Unless the RM falls in value by a few hundred % from 2020 to 2038, RM52.6 billion will still be a huge amount of money that the Rakyat will have to pay PLUS from 2038 to 2058, ie RM3.2 billion per year.

Eg in 2000, a DST house in PJ cost about RM500k and costs about RM800k today in 2020. So, RM3.2 billion in 2038 is about equivalent to RM2 billion today in 2020. RM52.6 billion in 2038 is about equivalent to RM33 billion today in 2020.

https://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...-due-next-year/
If factor in the 5% increase in toll rates every 3 years from 2020 to 2038 that PLUS has to forego with this new deal by Dr M, the RM52.6 billion figure will have to be subtracted by about RM5,400 million or RM5.4 billion, ie RM300 million X 18 years. This will still mean the Rakyat will be paying extra RM47.2 billion from 2038 to 2058, ie RM52.6 - RM5.4 billion.

NB: increase of 5% on the RM4 billion in annual tolls = RM200 million per year = averages out to about RM300 million per year over 18 years from 2020 to 2038.
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QUOTE(weissPC @ Jan 17 2020, 10:10 AM)
Wrong assumption, you're assuming 2.35% p.a. inflation, that's even lower than nationally 'controlled' inflation.

Vista Komanwel in Bkt Jalil, 1200 sqft condo transaction priced at RM184k in 2004, it fell even lower to RM16xk during 2008-2010, but now it's about RM550k-RM600k-ish.

That DST house in PJ why so lousy appreciation (2.35% p.a.) vs the Vista Komanwel (7.41% p.a.)?

All other calculation is just a blur to me since the assumption using PJ DST house is wrong.
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If you want Pure Maths term, then the DST house in PJ cost about RM400k in 2000 and costs about RM1,000k or RM1 million today in 2020, ie over 20 years.

Based on this historical inflation rate, the Rakyat will have to pay extra about RM47.2 billion in total toll from 2038 to 2058, which is equivalent to about RM18.8 billion today in 2020. Over another 20 years, ie from 2038 to 2058, this RM18.8 billion is equivalent to about RM12 billion today in 2020.

Even if based on your historical inflation rate for Vista Komanwel of 7.41% p.a or about 200k vs 600k, the RM47.2 billion in 2038 is equivalent to about RM15.7 billion today in 2020, and over another 20 years is equivalent to about RM10 billion today in 2020. This is no small figure for the Rakyat to bear from 2038 to 2058, especially during balik-kampung periods.
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This post has been edited by lurkingaround: Jan 17 2020, 11:24 AM
SUSlurkingaround
post Jan 17 2020, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(ohman @ Jan 17 2020, 10:15 AM)
Thank you for sharing the maths.

I gave up when people told me its better because EPF can continue paying dividend. 

Its like we should try our very best to give all money making tools to EPF for them to pay dividend.
Tongkat mentality at its finest.
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Some people are easily taken in by media spin. Some are PH cybertroopers.
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This post has been edited by lurkingaround: Jan 21 2020, 01:00 AM
SUSlurkingaround
post Jan 17 2020, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(weissPC @ Jan 17 2020, 12:49 PM)
Bro, I gotta give it to you, you really like to do the numbers.

All those are more or less give a picture of what the rakyat is in for, and I am of the same opinion that this is not the best deal for the rakyat, but better than selling it to some private company.

Do you know what, this realisation just came to me, even if govt take over the highways, tolls might not be abolished because there are maintenance that is needed on the highways.

Do you know the time value of RM3.28b in 2058 at 7.41% inflation rate is about RM200m in 2020? I don't think that amount is enough to maintain the highway on an annual basis.

Better hope the inflation rate is about 4.5% or below, at which point RM3.28b in 2058 is about RM600m in 2020 terms, that is better (without knowing how much PLUS is spending yearly to maintain and run the operations of the highway).

But looking at toll collection that you mentioned of RM4b, dividend of RM1b is 50% of profit, meaning the cost of maintaining and running the highway is about RM2b annually. RM600m in toll collection is seriously going to hamper PLUS operations in 2058.

Some years down the road, the toll rate is going to go up. Even though the agreement is to extend the concession to 2058, I think half way thru it, PLUS going to complain and get the toll rates increased, concession agreement to freeze the toll hike in exchange for extra 20 yrs concession can go to the dustbin.

Looking at it that way, we might not be getting such a bad deal after all.
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Privatization of highway building of PLUS and the lengthy concession period to collect tolls in the 1980s, was for the private company to recoup its huge investment and make some profits. At the end of the concession, the government will regain ownership of the highway and its management plus maintenance, which costs should be from the roadtax and other taxes collected, like before the era of privatization in the 1980s. Worse come to worse, the government can continue to collect nominal toll for management and maintenance costs.

Problem was, the private PLUS company was a likely songlapping BN-crony who likely had to be ploteked by the BN-government at all costs. Hence, the extensions from 30-years to another 20 years by the ex-BN government.
....... It should be better for the Rakyat to let the terms of the PLUS concession agreement remain, ie no 20-years extension to 2058, no 18% discount, except for the government paying compensation to PLUS to not impose the 5% rise in toll every 3 years until 2038.

On paper, privatization sounded good but it got abused by corrupt BN politicians at the expense of the Rakyat.

One of the responsibility of a government is to ensure a smooth-running, peaceful and orderly society, besides taking care of national defence, border security, foreign relations, school education, basic healthcare, etc. Good and smooth-running road/highway infrastructure was and should be the government's responsibility, in order for businesses to run efficiently = government collects more tax. That was why we have roadtax since the British colonial days.

To me, such privatization is just an excuse for the government leaders to enrich themselves or to buy votes with the collected roadtaxes and other taxes that do not have to be used for highway building and maintenance.
....... Maybe, the government should also privatize the police, Army, Immigration, schools, hospitals, etc.? *sarcasm*
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This post has been edited by lurkingaround: Jan 21 2020, 12:59 AM
SUSlurkingaround
post Jan 17 2020, 10:24 PM

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QUOTE(ohman @ Jan 17 2020, 05:19 PM)
People here worries about EPF dividend, so i suggested to privatise medical services so they can have a bigger dividend.
People here doesnt understand that EPF high dividend pay out REQUIREMENT, is the reason for price hike of all the toll and utilities services.
That is why EPF and other tabung can offer high dividend payout, all at the expense of inflation.

Look at MYR vs SGD


Their CPF is lower rate, so is their housing loan.

But people are too dumb to realize this.

Kamon la.

Ubi ubi in those kazhana or EPF so good in investment???? If so good ,go be your own fund manager la.
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Afaik, companies normally pay out dividends from their gross profits. If loss, usually no dividends are paid out. In the case of PLUS, it seems dividends are paid out to the EPF and Khazanah from revenue, even if PLUS had to incur losses by doing that. Hence PLUS still has about RM30 billion of debts after about 30 years of operation in collecting tolls of about RM4 billion yearly. Wonder where all the collected toll money gone.?
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SUSlurkingaround
post Jan 17 2020, 11:39 PM

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QUOTE(lurkingaround @ Jan 17 2020 @ 09:49 AM)
https://themalaysianreserve.com/2019/04/04/...2b-debt-to-pay/ ....... In 2016, the Rakyat paid about RM4,000 million or RM4 billion in tolls to PLUS.

Now got 18% discount on toll but 20-year extension to toll collection from 2038 to 2058. Apa erti ini.?
....... In simple math term, .......

18% discount = Rakyat save RM720 million per year for 18 years from 2020 to 2038 = save RM12,960 million over 18 years.

20-year extension = Rakyat have to pay RM3,280 million per year for 20 more years from 2038 to 2058 = pay RM65,600 million over 20 more years.

RM65,600 million - RM12,960 million = RM52,640 million.

So, this deal by Dr M will result in the Rakyat paying extra RM52,640 million to PLUS from 2038 to 2058 or extra RM3.2 billion per year.

Unless the RM falls in value by a few hundred % from 2020 to 2038, RM52.6 billion will still be a huge amount of money that the Rakyat will have to pay PLUS from 2038 to 2058, ie RM3.2 billion per year.

Eg in 2000, a DST house in PJ cost about RM500k and costs about RM800k today in 2020. So, RM3.2 billion in 2038 is about equivalent to RM2 billion today in 2020. RM52.6 billion in 2038 is about equivalent to RM33 billion today in 2020.

https://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...-due-next-year/
If factor in the 5% increase in toll rates every 3 years from 2020 to 2038 that PLUS has to forego with this new deal by Dr M, the RM52.6 billion figure will have to be subtracted by about RM5,400 million or RM5.4 billion, ie RM300 million X 18 years. This will still mean the Rakyat will be paying extra RM47.2 billion from 2038 to 2058, ie RM52.6 - RM5.4 billion.

NB: increase of 5% on the RM4 billion in annual tolls = RM200 million per year = averages out to about RM300 million per year over 18 years from 2020 to 2038.

QUOTE(weissPC @ Jan 17 2020 @ 10:10 AM)
Wrong assumption, you're assuming 2.35% p.a. inflation, that's even lower than nationally 'controlled' inflation.

Vista Komanwel in Bkt Jalil, 1200 sqft condo transaction priced at RM184k in 2004, it fell even lower to RM16xk during 2008-2010, but now it's about RM550k-RM600k-ish.

That DST house in PJ why so lousy appreciation (2.35% p.a.) vs the Vista Komanwel (7.41% p.a.)?

All other calculation is just a blur to me since the assumption using PJ DST house is wrong.

QUOTE(lurkingaround @ Jan 17 2020, 11:07 AM)
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If you want Pure Maths term, then the DST house in PJ cost about RM400k in 2000 and costs about RM1,000k or RM1 million today in 2020, ie over 20 years.

Based on this historical inflation rate, the Rakyat will have to pay extra about RM47.2 billion in total toll from 2038 to 2058, which is equivalent to about RM18.8 billion today in 2020. Over another 20 years, ie from 2038 to 2058, this RM18.8 billion is equivalent to about RM12 billion today in 2020.

Even if based on your historical inflation rate for Vista Komanwel of 7.41% p.a or about 200k vs 600k, the RM47.2 billion in 2038 is equivalent to about RM15.7 billion today in 2020, and over another 20 years is equivalent to about RM10 billion today in 2020. This is no small figure for the Rakyat to bear from 2038 to 2058, especially during balik-kampung periods.
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Apologies. I also need to make adjustment to the 18% discount figure of RM12,960 million for inflation, ie RM12,960 million saved in 2020 is equivalent to about RM32 billion in 2038.
....... Together with the foregone toll hike of 5% every 3 years = another savings of about RM5.4 billion in 2038, ie for 18 years from 2020 to 2038.
....... Total savings from 18% discount and no toll hike is about RM37 billion in 2038.

Extra 20 years of toll collection from 2038 to 2058 will cost extra about RM53 billion in 2038. So, this new deal will cost the Rakyat an extra RM16 billion in 2038, which is equivalent to about RM6 billion in 2020.
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The above figures may need some fine-tuning but whatever it is, the Rakyat has been taken for a ride by the ex-BN-government-orchestrated PLUS concession, ie having to pay PLUS tolls for 70 donkey years, especially when they have to balik kampung for festive celebrations.
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This post has been edited by lurkingaround: Jan 21 2020, 12:55 AM
SUSlurkingaround
post Jan 18 2020, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(lurkingaround)
One of the responsibility of a government is to ensure a smooth-running, peaceful and orderly society, besides taking care of national defence, border security, foreign relations, school education, basic healthcare, etc. Good and smooth-running road/highway infrastructure was and should be the government's responsibility, in order for businesses to run efficiently = government collects more tax. That was why we have roadtax since the British colonial days.
QUOTE(lurkingaround @Jan 17 2020 @ 11:39 PM)
Extra 20 years of toll collection from 2038 to 2058 will cost extra about RM53 billion in 2038. So, this new deal will cost the Rakyat an extra RM16 billion in 2038, which is equivalent to about RM6 billion in 2020.
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The above figures may need some fine-tuning but whatever it is, the Rakyat has been taken for a ride by the ex-BN-government-orchestrated PLUS concession, ie having to pay PLUS tolls for 70 donkey years, especially when they have to balik kampung for festive celebrations.
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P S - Won't be surprised if in the 2040s, the govt will extend PLUS tolls for another 20 years from 2058 to 2078 by giving another 18% discount.
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QUOTE(brapa? @ Jan 18 2020, 12:22 AM)
so actually epf & khazanah kena scam ?
wth
they aint so smart after all
or the politicians r too smart
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https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020...govt-of-the-day ....... according to this news report, Dr M received 3 offers to buy PLUS and 1 offer from PLUS to retain. PLUS is owned by Khazanah and EPF. He chose the offer from PLUS, ie 18% discount, no toll hike from 2020-2038 but 20-years extension of the concession from 2038 to 2058. Common sense would tell us that PLUS's offer will only benefit PLUS(= Khazanah and EPF) in the long run, as is the 3 other offers to buy PLUS will only benefit the buyers.
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Normally, the government is mainly funded by income tax and business/import/export tax. Since the 1980s, many governments in the world have conjure up new ways to tax the Rakyat mostly to enrich itself and its cronies or to buy votes, eg privatization schemes, GST/VAT/SST, mandatory motor/health insurance, excise tax on cars, city congestion tax, parking fees, sugar tax, prohibitive cigarette/liquor tax, tourist tax, etc.
....... Pity most of the Rakyat in the world have to suffer their evil and corrupt governments. So sad. sad.gif
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This post has been edited by lurkingaround: Jan 21 2020, 12:53 AM

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