Dec 11 2020, 09:54 PM
QUOTE(TheKraken @ Dec 10 2020, 03:20 AM)
There are lots and lots of strategies that can makes consistent money. Look around on youtube. Like this for example, looks legit even though I haven't backtested the strategy myself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elCAnL_Sw4k
People are struggling in trading because of a combination of factors:
They want to win all the time, but every strategy will have its bad period, there will be a period where consecutive losses will happen, and if people are not familiar with the strategy - for example, if they don't develop it themselves, they just got it from someone else, never back-tested it properly - then when a bad period comes, 99% of the people will start losing faith and look for another strategy, another holy grail.
Whenever I have friends who are newbies, asking me for winning strategies, I always give them one strategy (just to test their EQ) with the following stats:
- winning percentage around 46-55%
- Each win is 2R (i.e. if you risk 1% of your account, you will gain +2% of your account on each win)
but...
- it may have have 15 maximum consecutive losses (from backtesting 10 years of data)
but
- it will also have 10-15 consecutive winners.
Over a one year period, it can return 100% easily on EURUSD and GBPUSD (just two pairs).
and NONE of these 'friends' are able to execute this strategy despite it's proven track-record. They all gave up after suffering 6 to 8 consecutive losses. I told them, if they risk 1% of their account, a drawdown of 6% to 8% is nothing to worry about. But this is human nature, losing demoralizes people.
In reality things happen, emotion in play. Heard someone said before trading is simple, but not easy.People are struggling in trading because of a combination of factors:
They want to win all the time, but every strategy will have its bad period, there will be a period where consecutive losses will happen, and if people are not familiar with the strategy - for example, if they don't develop it themselves, they just got it from someone else, never back-tested it properly - then when a bad period comes, 99% of the people will start losing faith and look for another strategy, another holy grail.
Whenever I have friends who are newbies, asking me for winning strategies, I always give them one strategy (just to test their EQ) with the following stats:
- winning percentage around 46-55%
- Each win is 2R (i.e. if you risk 1% of your account, you will gain +2% of your account on each win)
but...
- it may have have 15 maximum consecutive losses (from backtesting 10 years of data)
but
- it will also have 10-15 consecutive winners.
Over a one year period, it can return 100% easily on EURUSD and GBPUSD (just two pairs).
and NONE of these 'friends' are able to execute this strategy despite it's proven track-record. They all gave up after suffering 6 to 8 consecutive losses. I told them, if they risk 1% of their account, a drawdown of 6% to 8% is nothing to worry about. But this is human nature, losing demoralizes people.
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