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Investment Forex Version 21, Foreign Exchange Market Discussion

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Hansel
post Sep 3 2020, 07:01 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Sep 3 2020, 03:42 PM)
congrats man... you ride it from about the bottom right? thumbup.gif

your banker must be every few days invite you to yum cha... lol
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Tks, bro,.... biggrin.gif

Hmm,... Yeah, near the bottom, I think,... I did not plant a TP, just observed closely on news only and wll re-act if necessary. Sometimes, I forgot to watch the news too because of my work and family,... biggrin.gif

She earned quite a lot this year from my account because I believed I have done 4 transactions so far,.. three longs and one sell..... She earns commissions from each transaction.

Huat to you this year, bro,... huat huat,...
Hansel
post Sep 5 2020, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Sep 5 2020, 07:19 AM)
thanks bro... huat huat to you too smile.gif

2020 no good to me.... lose interest/focus a bit and let my oil stocks crashed... lost quite a bit there... meanwhile my sourdough breads and pizzas are getting good...  biggrin.gif

for now big moves probably by November US elections...
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Huat to you in November then, bro,... US Elections on Tuesday, Nov 3rd ! Everybody lost money, bro,... most important is if we can make it back,... AND it does not wipe us out of our comfortable livelihood,...

Other than the above,.. so long as we are comfortable, we experienced life to the fullest with our loved ones and children,... that;s all there is to it !
Hansel
post Oct 9 2020, 04:27 PM

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Good evening bros,...

On July 27th, I wrote this : For recording purposes and updating this since have sometime today,...

As I write this, the interank bank rate is : 75.319.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Today, the interbank rate is at 76.00 JPY to ONE AUD.

I will continue to ride this uptrend without planting in a Take Profit level.

Look like not much chance for the AUDJPY to retrace which may allow me to add further to my position though I may need to average up.
Hansel
post Dec 3 2020, 07:48 PM

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Continuing to hold my AUDJPY pairs at current interbank rate of 77 Yen. The RBA has lowered its interest rate till 0.10%.

Unless it intends to go into negative rates, there is no more room for interest rates to affect the strength of the AUD anymore.

Now awaiting interest rates to rise again. The wait may be long, though,...
Hansel
post Dec 3 2020, 07:55 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Sep 3 2020, 03:42 PM)
congrats man... you ride it from about the bottom right? thumbup.gif

your banker must be every few days invite you to yum cha... lol
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Bro DWRK,... Revisiting your above input this evening,... I have been lucky,...and I am grateful too for having the chance to be able to learn enough to spot the lowest point of this pair in the present environment.

I continue to monitor the performance of the AUDJPY pair.
Hansel
post Dec 4 2020, 05:36 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Dec 3 2020, 09:18 PM)
hey bro Hansel! long time...what a coincidence I was just looking at your audjpy pair today just to check how far it ran... haha

could start another leg up though.... wink.gif  US bound to start printing again so expect more usd devaluation...and jpy trying to balance it... I got some eur action...but too bad still holding too much usd...
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QUOTE(Lucas0323 @ Dec 3 2020, 09:23 PM)
Best guess at least a year, very long wait
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Hi bros,.... biggrin.gif looks like the coincidence means we have fate to be together, bro DWRK,... too bad I'm married,... and male too,..... biggrin.gif

Yeah,.. ran up a bit,... and can continue to ride, bro Lucas,.... biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Dec 5 2020, 02:01 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Dec 5 2020, 09:38 AM)
I'm selling...

[
eh...now I suddenly gay... laugh.gif

your imagination too wild for me liao... hahaha
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biggrin.gif

Bro,... you selling your USD as a cutloss or as a take-profit now,...
Hansel
post Dec 7 2020, 01:08 AM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Dec 5 2020, 02:33 PM)
tp boss... my cost < 3.3  smile.gif
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This is great, bro,... congrats,... yeah, take profit first,... the USD is said to weaken next year by many parties.....
Hansel
post Feb 15 2021, 03:11 PM

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HI bros,...

Wishing all here a Happy and Prosperous Year of The Ox,...

Updating here that the currency pair, AUDJPY will still have legs to run,...


News: Aussie-yen set to extend rally

Growth bets overshadow the RBA’s attempt to rein in the Aussie dollar

Chief Investment Office, Newsfeed15 Feb 2021
Photo credit: AFP Photo

The Aussie dollar appears poised to extend its rally against the yen as bets on the global economic rebound overshadow the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) efforts to restrain the currency. The growth sensitive pair, which has surged 35% from a decade low in March, may test resistance around JPY84 per Australian dollar in coming weeks after recently breaching its April 2019 high.

Key technical indicators, including its moving average convergence/divergence, suggest upward momentum will continue, while hedge fund positioning also points to further gains.

The steady advance in commodity prices that underpins the growth outlook for the Aussie is coming just as vaccines start to find traction in the fight against the coronavirus, reducing the yen’s haven appeal.

Net long positions in the Australian dollar among leveraged funds rose to a three-month high in the week ended 9 February, while net long positions in the yen shrank to a three-month low.

The uptrend in Aussie-yen that was already clear by mid last year, accompanied by Japanese purchases of Australian bonds, would likely have been noticed by the RBA before it boosted monetary stimulus in November, according a head of FX strategy in London.

The central bank’s quantitative easing may help to limit upside for the currency pair, “though the better-than-expected recovery in the Australian labour market and stronger house price inflation should still lend support,” she said. This suggests “scope for further modest gains” in the coming weeks and months.

The release of Australia’s January jobs data on Thursday (18 February) provides investors with another opportunity to test this view, after the unemployment rate in December fell to an eight-month low. – Bloomberg News.

On Friday, the US Dollar Index added 0.07% to 90.480, the euro slipped 0.08% to USD1.2120, the pound rose 0.24% to USD1.3849, and the yen weakened 0.18% to 104.94 per dollar.


Just as news for you guys,... I give thanks to The Almighty for my entry point.
Hansel
post Feb 24 2021, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 24 2021, 10:02 AM)
huat ah bro !!!

highest audjpy 108... cheering you all the way...  rclxm9.gif

need to frame up your entry and exit liao eh...  thumbsup.gif
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Tq bro,... yeah,... now I'm trying to decide HOW TO EXIT and take profit already,... thumbup.gif
Hansel
post Feb 25 2021, 02:14 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 24 2021, 05:01 PM)
re-evaluate around 90... or when US stops printing... wink.gif

potential 2nd week of march to hit 88... lets see how then

added to my chart... will holler if anything...  icon_rolleyes.gif
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QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 24 2021, 09:13 PM)
Still got a long way to go it might even overshoot 120 anytime by May  rclxms.gif
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QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 24 2021, 10:44 PM)
too much to ask... lol

one day at a time man....one day at a time...
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QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 24 2021, 11:09 PM)
If you buying long why worry because anything with AUD can’t go wrong anytime in the past 15years  rclxms.gif
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Tq bros, for the opinions and the discussions,... in theory, when the RBA announces that they are stopping the bond repurchase program, the AUD might go higher. And,......... when inflation starts to affect daily lives,... the OCR might be raised from 0.10% now.

Will the AUD shoot thru the roof then ?
Hansel
post Feb 26 2021, 02:45 AM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 25 2021, 10:51 PM)
Won’t happen until at FY23 after the mid year budget review

Plus next year it is election year so usually after mid term of a government rates will rise hence why FY24 will be the best time to increase OCR to at least 1 to 1.25

Inflation to hit 2% by early 23 probably will overshoot and bond buying will start tapering by mid 22 in order for the economy to rebalance

The bond buying will keep on going might smaller in size and longer in length to support weak underlying fundamentals

Unlike Malaysia the RM will not not soar to below to 3.97 to USD within this year but most likely possibly against AUD at 3.50 anytime this year which I am gladly want i5 to happen soon
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I apprecaited all the timelines given,... but I'd choose to be more careful towards this.

If you meant to use the word 'soar' as strengthening,... saying the RM strengthening to 3.97 vs the USD, AND subsequently using back the same word : 'soar' against the AUD, this may not be so accurate anymore. Why ?

Because RM reaching 3.50 vs the AUD is weakening. And it's weakening very badly,... Furthermore, f the RM touches 3.50 vs the AUD,... then,.. it would touch 3.40 vs the SGD,.......... smile.gif

You're not the only one who would be happy for both of the currencies.
Hansel
post Feb 27 2021, 12:25 AM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 26 2021, 04:07 AM)
Why not because RM and AUD correlation already broken when AUDSGD broke 1.02

It happens before when AUD was at 3.4 and SGD was almost 3.2

Currently AUDSGD already broken 1.05 anytime within Q2 I won’t be surprised overshooting to 1.08

RM now fair value with weakening USD should be at 3.98 atm but it is artificially at 4.03 thanks to BNM
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QUOTE(paogeh @ Feb 26 2021, 04:55 AM)
@hansel

looking at the AUD/JPY  and AUD/USD chart ......

the safe strategy for this 2 pair , buy at the DIP ,
eg : AUD/JPY  61.00 (Mar2020)  and AUDUSD 0.56(Mar2020)

Taking 1 standard lot.

Hold AUDJPY from 61.00 ===> 84.00 ===> 2300 pips x  10usd = USD23K  profit just for 1 lot .

similar with AUDUSD.

last check with IC market swap ..... both long/short , have to pay swap of USD1--3+ ......

taking 365 days ===> USD2 x365 ==> USD700+ 

1 Lot ==> if capital USD5K  to hold...
USD23K - USD700 ===> USD22k ----- not bad ...
Return = > 22k/5k = 440% return in a year

the RISK :
1. AUD crash
2. USD or JPY strengten , like 2008  ==> or major RISK OFF
3. AUD interest rate fall
4. USD or JPY interest rate rise
5. The AUD up trend might not continue
that;s what i could think off .
not many ppl would like to hold FX > 1 year ....
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QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 26 2021, 12:03 PM)
not sure boss... in general lower liquidity drives up demand...

will depends on respective central banks printing and how they balanced their economy...

vacine should be fully rolled out and life back to normal... US printing should slow down... trade wars won't be over...

end of the day I know nothing...  laugh.gif
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QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 26 2021, 12:12 PM)
boss Hansel probably took a huge 10mil soft jpy loan...bought aud now parking in his fca... he bought so low can afford to hold forever... biggrin.gif

main concern is myr rates... low is good when he cash out... so far doesn't look like going to be an issue...
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Tks all bros for many opinions,... will read closely and think carefully before acting. Yeah,... bro dwRK,.. I took a very high 9-digit AUD loan and bet on this pair. Did this with my private banking facility in SG. Bought three round,.. if I remembered correctly.

Tired tonight.... biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Mar 3 2021, 06:38 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 27 2021, 02:24 PM)
sorry i so underestimated boss amount...  sweat.gif

couldn't decide tembak jpy or aud loan...so tembak jpy lah since low rates...but aud loan probably simpler... did you move it to other equities to supercharge it?

yes i was 100% sure done with banker... just letting paogeh bro know  biggrin.gif
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No prob, bro,... like I always say, the ampunt is not important. The investment returns in % determines whether the investor is a 'champion' or not.

...emm,... my bank will loan in AUD, never before was I offered in JPY.
Hansel
post Mar 9 2021, 04:51 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Mar 8 2021, 06:52 PM)
Hansel

boss be careful liao...

monthly jpyusd... potential bounce in days to weeks
user posted image

monthly audusd... topping pattern...and march still new...
user posted image

so audjpy... maybe retrace and continue... maybe reverse... do your own dd...
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Ok bro,... tq for the heads-up,.... watching here too and with the improving Aussie economy,.. I think still got legs,...
Hansel
post Mar 9 2021, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Mar 9 2021, 07:46 PM)
Wait till Nov and see the legs will be still running

AUDUSD still today cannot breach my support level 0.758 even with rising yield and back now to lower 77
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QUOTE(dwRK @ Mar 9 2021, 09:53 PM)
legs can run down too...  biggrin.gif

waiting for any right shoulder and what games are up...
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USD has been particularly strong recently. When the USD strengthens,... the JPY weakens badly,... I'm counting on this effect,... let's see,....
Hansel
post Mar 10 2021, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Mar 10 2021, 03:22 AM)
Let’s see whether this Thursday bond yields will spike again but JPY a lot of institutional are pricing at 111 to the dollar by May
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This is good news for me then,... tq bro,....
Hansel
post Mar 10 2021, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Mar 10 2021, 07:00 AM)
usd value based on feds printing speed...

usd demand / liquidity is the pricing
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Sometimes, bro,... the correlation is not so direct and not so clear,... probably that's why we call this the mkt,....

Take for eg now,... House is destined to pass the 1.9T USD stimulus,... so, surely,... more printing will need to take place, BUT USD still keeps strengthening because of bond yields rising,...

And bond yileds are rising because investors, especially Japanese investors,... are disposing USD govt bonds,....

To make a long story short, I'm buying crypto proxies to hedge against the above uncertainties. I observed the performance of cryptos and the USD is diverging. Just like the performance of the tech stocks and cryptos. This observation was confirmed by Cathie's ark too,....
Hansel
post Mar 18 2021, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Mar 10 2021, 05:43 PM)
i've been charting dxy, the dollar index... the strengthening was expected, but i don't see it correlating to bonds... not that i'm smart enough to see

the US is out of control with their printers...so yeah its best to hedge if you have sizable holdings... but crypto historically has no direct links to usd... just that elon musk, cathie wood, et. al., are changing the game...

what crypto proxies are you looking at?
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Hi bro,... I calm mind as much as I can,... in order to pickup the maximum observations,....

Currently,... the crypto I am invested into are US counters, namely, Mogo Inc, Silvergate Capital, Square and Microstrategy Inc.. I just received news today that, crypto exchange : Coinbase, has its valuation pegged at USD68b ahead of a landmark US listing. I'm trying to get this too.
Hansel
post Mar 18 2021, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Mar 10 2021, 05:58 PM)
Your positions is so strong that even downside won’t even hurt you as already to make profit it is just how much bigger  rclxms.gif
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Well,... if overnight, the AUDJPY falls to 62,... I'm in big trouble. biggrin.gif

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