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 Hong Kong Exchange & HK Stocks, Per title post-Extradition Bill W/drawal

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markedestiny
post Sep 5 2019, 08:49 PM

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Anyone caught the news that Carrie Lam only proposed to initiate the motion for withdrawal of the bill ? It's not the same as the bill being formally withdrew. Dont think the market will take this well if indeed true.
markedestiny
post Sep 7 2019, 12:52 AM

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No hurry to buy HK stocks...

Fitch Downgrades HK :

https://www.ibtimes.com/fitch-downgrades-ho...a-fears-2822946

More protests expected as I have mentioned earlier:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/hong...5181551062.html

markedestiny
post Sep 18 2019, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 18 2019, 12:03 PM)
You are welcome, bro,....

Emm,... HSBC has dipped below 60.00 this morning, reaching a low of 59.750 this morning. The boat might be coming back,.... but I can't figure out yet the reason for this pullback,...

If Bank of China pays out a yield of, say 8.15%, then 8.15% - (10% of 8.15%) still gives out a good yield of 7.335%. At the current price of HSBC, the yield is below 7%. So,... coming from this angle, at this current moment, BOC's yield is better than HSBC's.

THere is one major consideration then,.... BOC pays out once a year ! But HSBC pays out 4 times a year !!!!!!!!!!
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HSBC's outlook got downgraded from stable to negative by Moody's.

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_15...d-protests.aspx
markedestiny
post Sep 21 2019, 01:20 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 20 2019, 06:42 PM)
Yes - you are right ! This was the news a few days ago that caused the price of 0005.HK to pullback. Today,... it went back up above HKD 60.00,....
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Hansel, hsbc's current stock price could most probably supported directly or bouyed indirectly, by the news of a series of share buybacks which HSBC has purchased from LSE for the past one week.

There is no concluded end to the protest yet, and also now that the HK gov had outrightly refused to concede to further demands of the protestors. Protests or riots expected on 1 Oct, China's National Day. There could be opportunity to top up on this stock as HK market is expected to drop. Also no deal Brexit is expected to happen in October.
markedestiny
post Sep 21 2019, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 21 2019, 02:52 PM)
Tq bro,...

Just my observations on hsbc,... I saw the listed co in the LSE doing the buyback for the last 2 to 3 months, but 0005.HK still continued to fall. This fall got capped and turned around when HK gov't agreed to officially withdraw that controversial bill. Yhe price rose till,... emm,... 61.xx, I think,... then suddenly reversed and dropped below 60.00 a few days ago.

I couldn't find the reason for this till you showed me that article from Morningstar. I couldn't find any other articles on hsbc, neither could I find any credible news and development from hsbc.

The share buybacks are continuing to take place in London,...

As for Brexit,... I observed this : When PM Johnson was on the verge to be able to pull The UK out of The EU in a no-deal manner, hsbc continued dropping. Then,  when the opposing politicians came in to challenge Johnson, hsbc rose a bit. When Johnson wanted to stage a surprise election to ward-off the challengers, hsbc dropped back.

And finally, at current stage : looks like the challengers are able to stave off a surprise election plus gaining ground against Johnson, hsbc continued upwards.

I am of the opinion that when there are chances for The UK to remain inside The EU or at least, delay the exit, hsbc's price will move upwards.

Yes - I am hoping whatever happens on October 1st will press hsbc's price down again,....

How abt Public Finance (0626.HK), bro ?
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When i remarked 'a series of share buybacks', HSBC was really buying back its shares very very frequently for the past one week sweat.gif ; without these buybacks I believed the share price could have drop more...

Public Finance is not on my watchlist, as I am more bullish about the big 4s, in the long run, that is. I noted your reservations about Chinese banks and credit bubbles, but imo, the bubble is more applicable to chinese banks which invested heavily outside of China (BRI - belt and road initiatives?). I could be wrong tho, but agreed on the short run, most will get affected including big 4s, but the question would be , which of these chinese banks would be affected the most and which would be able to recover quickly.

Anyway I took a look at PF:

- it pays div twice a year, not 4 times a year which you prefers
- div yield is 7.29% ! Very high but share price currently low at level unseen for the past 5 years at least.
- PF is very HK-centric in its biz focus, i.e. most of its branches in HK, the protests would have affect it comparatively

Can still consider to mark this stock to buy post-October given its deeply discounted price, but with cautions with the current headwinds. That's just my opinion, so do research before you enter smile.gif







markedestiny
post Sep 23 2019, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 21 2019, 10:36 PM)
Added : Tq,.. my opinions in red after your paras,...
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I think it's sensible call to monitor HSBC's share buybacks from LSE with the Brexit issue as they have stakes there. Let's see how things turn out.

As for the big 4s, no, I have not invested in any yet, but the benefits/risk is tempting enough to keep this in my watchlist smile.gif . The reformed loan prime lending rate would most probably caused short term pains but would improve transparency in the long run from what I read.
Btw, these big 4s and 3 key others players ( guess?) are rumoured to be working with The People's Bank of China to come up with 'digital currency'. wink.gif

markedestiny
post Sep 30 2019, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Sep 21 2019, 01:20 AM)

There is no concluded end to the protest yet, and also now that the HK gov had outrightly refused to concede to further demands of the protestors. Protests or riots expected on 1 Oct, China's National Day. There could be opportunity to top up on this stock as HK market is expected to drop. Also no deal Brexit is expected to happen in October.
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As expected, riots expected tomorrow and some frontliners ready to battle with their lives...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ie-for-movement

sad.gif
markedestiny
post Sep 30 2019, 08:42 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Sep 30 2019, 05:12 PM)
Sometimes I wonder if there is hidden hands supporting market. Logically speaking, market should be bearish right? Retails, tourism, property outlook, banks all are affected ...,
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The support could be due to shares accumulation by both the retail and state owned enterprises from China.

The retail investors from China saw the discounts of the same stock trading in HKex with 30% or more compared to its counterpart trading in the Chinese exchanges.

As for the state owned enterprises aka institutional investors, they have been asked to take 'an interest' in the private companies trading in HKex.

Therefore the drop in HKex is not so drastic ...yet...

markedestiny
post Oct 7 2019, 11:27 PM

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Currently there is bank run situation in HK right now, spin off of Emergency Regulations Ordinance.

If lucky, bank customers get to withdraw max limit HKD2K. Most ATMs ran out of cash.


markedestiny
post Nov 5 2019, 11:52 AM

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HK, technically already in recession..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...srnd=markets-vp

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-29/hong...nfirms/11647964

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/art...ace-in-21-years
markedestiny
post Nov 11 2019, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Nov 11 2019, 02:50 PM)
HSI really down today, a good reminder of the risks of Market.

Buy the dip or stay put or get out..?
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Although I bought some last week, I will wait and see how things progress. IMO last year's Dec drop may occur again end of this year. There is nothing positive about the trade deal despite earlier news. Currently HK is leading the Asian stock markets slide..
markedestiny
post Nov 13 2019, 05:52 PM

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Alibaba is going to list in HKex this 25 Nov...

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finan...condary-listing
markedestiny
post Nov 14 2019, 09:27 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Nov 13 2019, 11:02 PM)
Now I remember that Baba in US is a depository receipt. Not sure now what will be listed in HK. Stock or DR.
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ADRs are usually for foreign stocks which are listed on the US exchanges.

Alibaba's listing in HKex, which is home country can't be an ADR.
markedestiny
post Nov 14 2019, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Nov 14 2019, 08:02 AM)

Now BABA(NYSE) already lost 4.8% even the news about HK listing. Maybe ppl are selling BABA(NYSE) and buying BABA(HKSE).
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I am just postulating that the price drop could be due to

- selling before dilution of shares as you mentioned, some might want to take profit first

- selling the US listed to buy the HK listing due to advantage of currency exchange

- lately US view buying the Chinese ADRs listed on their market as directly funding the growth of China.coms and there have been active lobbying to 'cut off' these capital funding to China. There is a risk that the trade war may escalate into capital war. Therefore it is better to buy the Chinese stock at home country rather than US. I have some ADRs which I would gladly sell if these are available at home country as mitigation.
markedestiny
post Nov 15 2019, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Nov 14 2019, 07:52 PM)
are you guys planning to buy BABA next week?

but I think Warren Buffett advised against buying at IPO.
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Yes, you are right he said that, but this is different as Alibaba has been listed in US and has historical performance data and 'reputation'.

Most IPOs dont have performance history and you need to wait and see how it perform post listing.


markedestiny
post Nov 29 2019, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Nov 29 2019, 02:09 PM)
Wow.. HK down a lot today
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Even AliBaba dropped from HKD200+ to HKD198+

I think we could expect more volatility come 15th Dec if tariff kicks in...
markedestiny
post Dec 18 2019, 04:09 PM

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China plans to make Macau a financial hub, to replace HK?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ub-reuters-says
markedestiny
post Jan 7 2020, 12:42 PM

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China Targets Internet Giants in Antitrust Law Overhaul...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-target...-022434747.html


markedestiny
post Jan 23 2020, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Jan 17 2020, 02:04 PM)
Link REIT up another 1% today! Shanghai and Hang Seng index a little red.
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HSI is very red not just due to the usual pre-CNY sell off (most dont like to keep stocks for the long holidays ahead) but also the mounting spread of coronavirus which China thinks it could put it under control but is struggling to contain. Wuhan is now under lockdown, no entry and exit blink.gif

Glove manufacturers especially Topglove which was mentioned in bloomberg news as the largest manufacturer stands to gain as the virus has begins to spread beyond China. Guess some funds will flow back to KLSE for these counters..


markedestiny
post Jan 23 2020, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jan 23 2020, 05:00 PM)
Will TopGlov listed in SGX also benefit?
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I would think so if you check its stock price movement for the past few days...anyway, why buy sgd when you can buy here. I never thought of Q'ing for glove counters but given the current situation, i believe the issue could take some time to address and the demand for gloves would increase as the virus start to spread wide.

The Chinese market actually was red on Monday due to the virus and then turned green the next day after Xi declared more serious measures would be taken to contain the outbreak. Today as you know it's red again as per my post above as they may underestimate the extent of the contagion outbreak. My HK holdings dropped about 5% and may drop further if not address quickly but it is even worse for leisure, transport, holidays related stocks...

Don't think it's buying opportunities for Chinese stocks now as this is just the beginning of outbreak to other countries and also given the long holiday break, so will continue to monitor...

This post has been edited by markedestiny: Jan 23 2020, 05:25 PM

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