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This post has been edited by geekystef: Nov 21 2020, 06:30 PM

Not a sifu here, but from a normal guy perspective.

Sub sale need 10% deposit, SNP fees, sum up around 15% of house price.

New development no need. With HOC, now people still got 10% discount.

Seems like gov try very hard to push sales for developer.

If I am looking for house, I will look for new development instead of subsale on the market unless the price is really attractive to cover the 15% difference.

This post has been edited by joey2000: Jul 20 2019, 12:57 PM

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This post has been edited by geekystef: Nov 21 2020, 06:14 PM

Likely asking price is unrealistically high, that's why few if any are interested.

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This post has been edited by geekystef: Nov 21 2020, 06:14 PM

Mainly because the market had softened a bit and everyone knows it, especially the buyers. They want to flex their muscles now knowing that the stagnant market offers them plenty of choices and so the market stagnates even further. This is a waiting game by the buyers hoping to catch a property bubble and pick up cheap prices if it happens.

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This post has been edited by geekystef: Nov 21 2020, 06:14 PM

How much loan interest, maintenance fees has incurred since you put up for sale? How much loan interest, maintenance fees you prepare to pay before it is sold?

If no one ask mean no buyer is interested e.g price too high.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 20 2019, 02:14 PM

Bubble won't happen in prime areas(Klang Valley, Jalan Kuching, Damansara etc),yes it could happen but the impact is not significant as developers are more cautious about the situation.

It is not smart move if buyers keep waiting for the price goes down. If you have opportunities to grab good location with decent price and offers just buy sooner or later the price will goes up

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This post has been edited by geekystef: Nov 21 2020, 06:15 PM

Unfortunately, I hate to tell you that there is no bubble at this point in time.

This is a normal market cycle which goes up and down. The long term trend is always up. If you can hold on, hold longer.

A lot of people feel that a bubble has formed because of the rapid growth of property prices from 2009 - 2013. But property prices have more than doubled since the financial crisis in 98.

What if let's say this theoretical "bubble" pops. How much of correction are we looking at? 10%? 20%? Will this be overnight?

Realistically, this will not happen. Since 2014 - 2019 there has been a drop in prices of about 20% but that is a slow gradual landing. (Mostly in the secondary market).

Because anything more than 30% drop will cause a recession in Malaysia that will take many years to get out of. BNM and the government in charge will intervene and drop interest rates to keep the economy growing and get it out of the rut (so to speak).

If you really observe, developers are selling at more affordable prices now (We are seeing 3xxk, 4xxk launches, the norm in 2014 was about 5xxk and above) but that comes with a cost of higher density and smaller sizes.

There is a softer demand for sub-sale properties because of the HOC. There is, of course, plenty of deals now in the secondary market because of this.

If you are selling, I recommend you hold your horses and wait it out. My 2 cents.

You may consider rent out your unit instead, kuchai lama should have the demand

Or you can wait few more years until mrt complete then see if your property got demand or not

Unless buyer has enough cash on hand to get subsale or urgently in need of a house to stay, else most of the buyer will rather go for rumahwip or new launch, and there is quite are quite a few new launch in kuchai lama recently

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This post has been edited by geekystef: Nov 21 2020, 06:15 PM

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This post has been edited by geekystef: Nov 21 2020, 06:15 PM

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This post has been edited by geekystef: Nov 21 2020, 06:16 PM

Not likely, over the middle, long term input costs will go up. My guesstimate would be that it would be hard for the next 5 years or so. But the next boom will likely come after that.

The world has gone crazy with the outlook that growth will be slower in the next few years. Central banks in the region and the United States (US talking about dropping interest rates by a quarter or half a point. ) have dropped their interest rates. This will stimulate a short term growth in spending by offering cheaper credit.

Don't be surprised if we end up with another rate cut. Although that is only a bandaid and not the long term solution. In a healthy economic cycle, a recession must come every few years to sustain long term growth. Debt paydown occurs during recessions.

What should be happening is that governments should encourage a recession to prevent a harder landing when it will hits.

However, since central banks are lowering interest rates. They are essentially selling their "insurance policy" for when a recession hits. In these scenarios, don't be surprised if QE happens during the next recession (which might be a depression at the rate things are going).

In simple terms, if banks print more money. Values will go up. Whether it will happen or not is anyone's guess. If you're not getting the desired price and not in a rush for money. Hold and collect rental income.

Alternatively, you may wish to refinance for cash instead. Example, if you are collecting a rental of 1500, you can refinance about 330k).

If anyone has got a more comprehensive view on the current situation feel free to chime in. I may be wrong as learning is a lifelong process.

Cheers.

This post has been edited by vckc: Jul 20 2019, 02:56 PM

Property is illiquid, price takes years to bottom. Until property overhang is reduced substantially, price remain depressed. Subsale overhang is believed to be >3 times of developers/primary market.

As most bought property with bank loan and is incurring loan interest daily; price need not drop e.g stagnant to incur financial losses. Many may not able to sustain monthly negative cash flow.

For ownstay, whether home price rise or drop has no material effect. Gomen and bnm have no obligation to protect subsale vendors. Subsale property price dropped by over 30% wouldn't cause economic recession as people buy cars and regularly depreciate by 50%.

Exactly. The bubble wont happen in prime areas within KV. It could go up though if the economy picks up.

Rate cut mean negative economy outlook. How could negative outlook be good for property market?

By about 2030, Malaysia will become a ageing nation. Property price is more likely on long downtrend.

Bank interest is normally rise and fall inline with inflation rate. Rise in inflation rate also mean higher loan interest rate.

Price accordingly or wait for 4-6 years.

alot of scams are being enrolled by developers and supported by Pakatan Harapan(PH/Mahathir cronisym): giving rebate up to 30% to inflate Malaysian property bubble.

secondary properties are taking the toll.

ask him to sell at lower price, if market demand is lower than supply: price should drop.

This post has been edited by powerlinkers: Jul 20 2019, 03:16 PM