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Investment Anyone kena burnt in investment?, Experience and your lesson learnt

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Jordy
post May 6 2019, 10:53 AM

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I invested in this stock back in 2010 just after it went public at the A-region and kept averaging downwards due to my believe that investment in Education is one of the best, and then I finally sold it off between the C- and D-region after realising that this company is going into a sh*thole.

Lesson learnt - never get involved with companies closely tied with Government policy. Any slight change in Government policy could mean the end of the company.

The same can be said with the situation of TM is in right now. See chart below.

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Jordy
post May 6 2019, 06:03 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ May 6 2019, 02:57 PM)
My pov and experience

Keep on averaging down is not a good practice in investing.

When a stock is keep on going down on long term basic, it is better to review the reason of it.
Good stock that are registering stable and profit growing and keep on rewarding shareholders with generous dividend, generally their stock price won't keep on sliding on long term basic one.

Whenever an invested target poorly perform, it is advisable to patiently monitoring first instead eager to average down, if really that bad, sliding non-stop, cut loss early.
Average down could mean double the loss instead of trying to gain back.
Average down may be = bet more on the losing stock... sweat.gif

Get rid of losing stock, but keep those performing (gain) one should be the motto of investing.
But most people did the other way. Take profit (sell) those gain one (normally gain a little), but keep losing one and average down more.

Average up is better that average down.

There are many, ten or hundreds of many good stocks out there for choosing around.
Don't need to fall in love in one or two.

We are not choosing a single "wife" in investing, we can or should have wife(s) in investing.  laugh.gif

Diversification is important to mitigate the risk in investing.
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You are right, and my mistake should serve as a lesson to all other young investors alike.
Well I was young and naive back then with nobody to caution me on such stuffs, I had to learn everything the hard way.
But being burnt is one sure way to keep improving yourself.
Jordy
post May 8 2019, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(fairylord @ May 7 2019, 06:40 PM)
Thank you for all not hesitate to share the experience. It's really seldom reading about the adverse side of investment as none would like to share the failure.

So far, have not seen any unker aunty share about the 2008 and earlier recession, how to live over the doom days. May be we all here are majority investor (or new) of youngster generation which yet to experience those suffering moment from financial and investment perspective.

Always we heard some sifu suggest to average down and when you believe continue to hold, or save warchest and get ready to hoot during/after recession. I just don't understand how to hold up my believe when the price arrow are shooting down in a graph and my heart is keep pumping the blood all over the body while we unable to identify where is the bottom and start bounce back.

Are you able to hold?
Are you dare to hoot?
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Before I start, I would like to clarify that I am not yet an unker category, but I have lived through 2007-2008 subprime crisis (second crisis in my life).
Reason I did not share about the subprime crisis is because my losses were quite insignificant as compared to the loss I shared regarding MEGB. I had the first crisis in year 2006, just before the 2007 subprime meltdown hit.
So my capital wasn't a lot when it hits. I only started rebuilding back my warchest from 2008 onwards by hustling in between classes and then reinvested everything (hoot) back into stock market into 2009. That was my big break and I finally got to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I recovered when the market boomed into 2010, where I got the confidence and hoot into the wrong MEGB (which made me lose a hell lot of money I recovered).

The MEGB saga took me 3 years to get back on track and in 2013 I decided to put back everything to hoot the market again. Between 2013 and 2015, it was my hayday as I made a lot of money (and loss some).
For the past 20 years of my investing journey, I have lost and re-hoot the market over several times. Now I have learnt to hold on to my stocks, don't want to repeat the same mistake again of selling and realising the losses during a crisis.
Jordy
post May 12 2019, 03:39 PM

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QUOTE(VyvernS @ May 11 2019, 02:42 PM)
Anyone kena burnt in investment?, Experience and your lesson learnt (Investment)..

Plenty....Malaysian stocks (I think it was a stock begin with R that cost me a lot, I bought on margin in that one, lost about 2k back then which was about 1/5 of my portfolio)..one of them, WCT, Zelan, Cocoland...

US Stocks - Chimera Investment (-USD1800), BP (bought as a good investment but it tanked after Deepwater Horizon), and used to be Starbucks (I bought it a 2nd time after a loss on the 1st, and it has netted me well)....

I guess it made me wiser not to buy on rumours and sell on news...A bit more cautious in buying stocks, setting a plan for my trading style (either hold or sell at x% profit), stick to the plan, not let emotions run the show, look for solid stocks to hold, etc.

Since then I have had my fair share of losers, but more winners. You can't win them all, but you try to shoot for as many winners as possible. A lot of it for me goes into studying the P&L, Balance Sheets, Review company, etc.

Even after that I still won't hit winners all the time, some are losers but you won't lose big if there are solid fundamentals with the company - timing might just be out (i.e. free hand tweet from POTUS at odd hours) or market sentiment turned against the industry...

Someone mentioned (I think Jordy) said average down. I used to do that until I read another book that said you should average up, not down (William J. O'Neil - How to Make Money in Stocks). But read it for yourself to understand the context. Today, looking back, I can't fathom why I averaged down.
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If the company is doing well and generates good FCF year after year, but for some reason the price is decreasing, then it could be good to average down. Be mindful though of the valuation which you are buying into. You have to check if the share is indeed undervalued before you average down. It's a double-edged sword.
Government policy changes also will have a great effect on the related stocks. I was unlucky because I averaged down when PTPTN decided to trim down the margin of loan per student. That was a grave mistake.

QUOTE(xcxa23 @ May 11 2019, 05:02 PM)
yes and for every crisis happened, especially in asia and how malaysia market reacted.
thanks for your input.. i am still studying that time and had absolutely no interest in finance.

only started interested and investing during 2010..  blush.gif 

do you still remember which company, survive the 2008 crisis and still doing well in brusa
i do heard alot ppl, aunty uncle, say if only that time buy bank share.. wondering which section able to tank the market.

haha.. i jz manage to profit 6k+ from construction share..

damn.. heart of steel.. 2008 was second crisis?
manage to earn from recent trade war?
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There are plenty of them. I did invest into Scientex, Axreit and Atrium after 2008 and was well rewarded. I did not hold on to Scientex and Axreit when they jumped between 800% and 200% from the price I sold respectively. That was also a mistake for me. They were doing SO well. And as with the case of Public Bank which VyvernS mentioned, jumped from RM8 to RM25-ish now.
Jordy
post May 12 2019, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ May 12 2019, 03:48 PM)
Just to add (not to disagree the use of FCF, in fact FCF is one of strong indicator how well the company is doing)

FCF is not foolproof figure to see whether it is worth to average down or not, especially those cash generated is not rewarding back to shareholders as dividend.
Also, billions of cash may be wiped out in single poor investment decision made by the company, or large capital outlay needed to replace the depreciation figure that resulted FCF every year one.

There are companies with strong FCF, even racking up billion of cash in coffer, but stingy to reward their shareholders, generally those stock share price won't be performing too well either.

There is one common feature on those stock that so called rewarding over the long term -> Strong FCF that translated into generous dividend to shareholders.
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Yes, thank you Cherroy for adding that. I didn't mean to add so much detail into my previous post. There are just too many factors to be considered that if we mention all, it will definitely be as long as a blog post laugh.gif

But truth be told, dividend investing is one of the sure way to success in long term stock investing. Invested in the right companies at below their intrinsic value, you can just ride through thick and thin of the economy, unless of course like what Cherroy said if the company made a wrong investment decision, then the company will be in a difficult situation.
Jordy
post May 14 2019, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(xcxa23 @ May 13 2019, 08:22 AM)
Why did not hold on? Exit strategy, target reach secure profit? 
Hmm.. so indeed there company that may strive even tho crisis occur.. just we have to have sharp intuition and not blindly listen to so called buy buy buy low low low.

I was told, during crisis, most secure and confirm won't delisted is bank sector. Which I think is half true? BNM won't let bank run happen but as for delisted, I think bnm don't really care right?

May I know why you opt for the two stock not bank stock?
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I was almost broke at that time, having just lost everything I had in a failed business just prior to that. So I was basically living on a RM300 monthly allowance.
I had to keep an active trading routine to keep my portfolio growing. Sometimes I had to resort to day or contra trading. As I had very small capital at that time, I didn't have the kind of holding power which I had now.

I opted for the 2 stocks (and a few others) based on fundamental, they had all the right numbers with steady growth, so they hit all my indicators. That was why I boarded them at the low, only to miss the sail few years down the road.
So now another lesson learnt, is to keep fundamentally strong stocks (if one has the holding power to do so). One day it will eventually fly.
Jordy
post Sep 26 2019, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(ah_suknat @ Sep 26 2019, 08:14 AM)
Score A?
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Masterskill (MEGB).

 

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