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 PROPERTY MARKET PRICE

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icemanfx
post May 3 2019, 01:15 PM

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QUOTE(Harry_Bobinski @ May 3 2019, 11:24 AM)
Yeah if you can hold for another 5 to 10 years, should not be a problem. icemanfx correct me if I am wrong
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It depends on how much spa is overvalued. The issue with many novice investors is sustaining negative cash flow for extended period of time.

QUOTE(AskarPerang @ May 3 2019, 12:26 PM)
This is normal. Not only in JB but Klang Valley also.
That's why got developer dare to offer you free downpayment + offer cash back 20% for example.

Example, property XXX price 500k.
Meaning developer sell you at 500k only but able to mark up the price to 650k.
You loan 90% = 585k.
85k cash out, coz developer agreed to sell at 500k only.
So after project completion, of course the market value is not 650k but 500k only.

Is your case same like the above example?
Now wander how developer get the banks professional valuer to overvalue those properties?

And this is exactly why all those overprice projects fall into lelong market now. You are taking much higher value loan. Of course rental not able to cover and negative XXX amount monthly. Or use the cash out money to tahan the bleeding monthly hoping for the property value to increase after XX years.
cc: icemanfx
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Due to different finishing, etc, banks traditionally take developers price as market value. Hence, most if not all developers took advantage to overpriced to include grr, cash back, 10% loan margin, etc.

Understand some banks have engaged their own valuer on new launch and only offer loan based on their valuer's valuation.

Many novice buyers failed to realize the lesser amount paid upfront, the higher amount the loan repayment and over optimistic on their future income. Hence, many ended up in financial distress.
icemanfx
post May 3 2019, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(leodinouknow @ May 3 2019, 02:03 PM)
not very sure, just can say my friend badluck and need tahan the loan or bankrupt.

even written black n white, i believe wont use main company name de, will use sub company, just mention hirer this company to manage or what what what. if problem come out, worst case sub company close down bankrupt. while main company still handsome profit without any problem.
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grr almost always from third party.

icemanfx
post May 3 2019, 02:38 PM

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Double posted

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 3 2019, 02:48 PM
icemanfx
post May 3 2019, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(Harry_Bobinski @ May 3 2019, 02:50 PM)
My understanding is that engaging developer panel bank as opposed to your own bank would yield different valuation reports. Probably the reason why the developers would only use panel legal team and panel bank?
So all this GRR could very well be BS -.- Few years ago, when I was hunting for my apartment, never even heard of this scheme before.
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Some bank will only offer loan on certain developers project to their existing customers only.

Grr is in existence for many years. Like some said; there is sucker born every minute; there won't be a shortage of victims.
icemanfx
post May 3 2019, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(leodinouknow @ May 3 2019, 03:37 PM)
even property agent cant be trust. how to trust grr?
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Agent's income is from sales commission. They will do their utmost to convince buyers and due diligence is buyer's responsibility.
icemanfx
post May 4 2019, 01:06 PM

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QUOTE(leodinouknow @ May 4 2019, 12:45 PM)
permas jaya is good location to rent out. lot malaysian work jb rent there.

problem is, where all the cash back? you finish spend?
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People who never handle a large amount of cash are unlikely able to handle properly or prudently.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 4 2019, 01:07 PM
icemanfx
post May 4 2019, 09:20 PM

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Property price is probably the most opaque among all investment assets; there could be substantial price difference between spa, net, asking, valuation, transacted and auction price.
icemanfx
post May 5 2019, 12:05 AM

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QUOTE(David_77 @ May 5 2019, 12:02 AM)
assuming all investments are scam, in forex scam, will go from 100 to zero faster than you can click.

therefore it is better to invest in properties, no? at least in properties, masih ada chance to get out with something, since you kept repeating this like a broken record "Property price is probably the most opaque..."

so your scam proposal on forex and money games and shares is more risky leh.
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I challenge you to show us one post that i promote forex trading and money game as investment.

property is highly leverage; leverage amplify profits as well as losses.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 5 2019, 12:07 AM
icemanfx
post May 5 2019, 12:35 AM

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QUOTE(David_77 @ May 5 2019, 12:17 AM)
you keep going on and on about other investments that brings better returns. you terasa with the forex, money game? ok, how about shares?

options give you 4 to 1 dollar. highly leverage too. also forex/money game. not you lah but the one that terasa.
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Don't put your words in my mouth; i challenge you show us one post that i promote leveraged investment.

property investment is not newly invented or discovered. if property investment is attractive; every da ma, kopitiam unkers are already multi-properties landlords.

the fact remain, property is not the only investment opportunity available.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 5 2019, 12:48 AM
icemanfx
post May 5 2019, 02:25 AM

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QUOTE(David_77 @ May 5 2019, 01:10 AM)
aiyoh! why you so terasa? i quote my statement "you keep going on and on about other investments that brings better returns. you terasa with the forex, money game? ok, how about shares?

options give you 4 to 1 dollar. highly leverage too. also forex/money game. not you lah but the one that terasa.
"

see? i already said not you lah but the one that terasa mah. aunty so sensitive today  whistling.gif

who's arguing that popoties is the only investment? you set up a straw man, then beat the dead horse again and again. ok ok, jangan terasa if you did not do it hor.

after all, forex/mony game is your expertise no? or is it not?
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Herd members are easily influenced by fellow herd member; you are undoubtedly one.

I am just a economic student, not expert in any investment.

If gomen to build affordable home as planned, overhang will likely widen in subsale. Knowing supply>demand for long, how could price rise? If neither rental or price could rise, why bother to invest?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 5 2019, 06:07 AM
icemanfx
post May 5 2019, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(David_77 @ May 5 2019, 08:11 AM)
Sure not not you promote forex scam/money game 😉 (ssshh... I won’t tell on you). 

Calm your panties down.
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I challenge you to show one post that I promote forex trading or money game.

Classic of herd member, the moment lost a debate; start to name calling. Your aggressive manner could mean you couldn't afford to lose and under enormous financial stress.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 5 2019, 10:04 AM
icemanfx
post May 5 2019, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(gld998 @ May 5 2019, 10:32 AM)
yup. I did a site visit 2 days back. Leisure Farm got alot of type of property. I go look look see see lor, everyday go shopping mall also sian rite.
If the unit is a banglow unit confirm I sapu at RM500k.  drool.gif
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You could buy up 4 units to become a bungalow.

QUOTE(David_77 @ May 5 2019, 10:06 AM)
Aunty, calm your panties down. Already say you *are* not scammer, be it forex, options, share, money game liao.

Gosh, really hit something there, don’t I?

Repeat after me ‘I, icemanfx, must calm my panties down’. Then breath 3 times.

Happy Sunday 😉
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The world is greater than the kampung, suggest you come out of your coconut shell to look see.

for reasons, only about 3% of adults in this country have over us$100k net worth.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 5 2019, 10:55 AM
icemanfx
post May 5 2019, 09:34 PM

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QUOTE(David_77 @ May 5 2019, 08:48 PM)
Seriously what is there to discuss? This topic has been discussed as nauseam at one point or another. Same set of property market data, two opposing views.

One group uses it to support why must buy. Another group uses it to support why must not buy.

Sub-groups for buy - yes but not now. Another - yes and now.

Sub-groups for not buy - never buy. Another - not now but keep watching.

Then you have the forex, money game, shares promoters jumping in their panties.

So kinda useless thread.
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Property overhang in subsale is believed to be 3 times or more of primary market. With more supply coming, it will take longer than most expected to reduce this overhang. Until overhang is reduced substantially, price will remain suppressed.

Rental is a lead indicator of property. Given rental is on downtrend, price will follow.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 5 2019, 09:39 PM
icemanfx
post May 6 2019, 03:59 AM

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QUOTE(Bjorn1688 @ May 6 2019, 02:25 AM)
Buying properties for investment isn’t really all that any longer, most should be seen as a form of forced savings and for the long haul.

There is one under laying principle most detractors forgot, for there to be property there needs to be land and as Mark Twain said Buy land it isn’t being made any longer.

Forex? It’s just fiat money, The Feds can print as much greenback as they wished. Also takes forever to make any profit and offering requiring huge amounts of capital.

Shares and stocks? You folks must be either too young or have a selective memory, heard of Enron? How about the 1997 Asian Financial crisis?

Crypto? Lol.

Detractors of property investments can come up with all kinds of stories but none can show me a period in the last 30 years where a choice unit 22x85 or 22x75 DSL house in Bangsar could be purchased for less money than the previous year. Value dropped? On paper maybe but could you actually BUY one at the supposedly “lowered price” and was a choice unit not one that faced a t-junction or near a mosque etc?

On a bad year maybe you don’t get to rent it out for what you expect to else after 5 years  if you want to hold it you can remortgage and do something with the money or if you sell then you would still make a healthy return.
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Not that property investment is not feasible but need to be selective just like any other investment. Buy when blood is knee deep on the floor.

Leverage amplify profits as well as losses be it property, stocks, bonds, option, etc. It is not price alone that wipe out investment but mounting loan interest also. Property investment could be highly leverage and is illiquid. Jumping in blindly could become a mortgage prisoner.

Land may not be created but redevelopment is a option. Hence, metropolitan cities like London, NYC, Shanghai, etc never stop development.

The funny thing is not everywhere is bangsar and not everyone buy in bangsar.

Many still failed to realize 2011-2014 property bull run was fueled by cheap and easy credit, a fallout of u.s qe. As income didn't rise in line or faster than property price, current property price is unsustainable. Another property bull run is unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Historically, property price rise at about inflation rate in the long term. After 2011-2014 bull run, price will take years to return to long term trend.

Developer is more informed and has the first bite of cherry. Try to beat developer in it's own game is just like those punters try to win the casino.

From data collected since 2011, most property investors behaviours in this country is consistent with those of u.s subprime i.e herd behaviour. During bull run, every punters think he is a gold finger. Only after the tide turned will tell who was swimming naked.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 6 2019, 06:22 AM
icemanfx
post May 6 2019, 01:55 PM

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QUOTE(Bjorn1688 @ May 6 2019, 01:42 PM)
biggrin.gif  doh.gif

You only have yourself to blame for buying at a 3rd rate shithole and convincing yourself you bought a bluechip property.

Loan interest killing you? You only have yourself to blame too, who asked you to take on a 100%LTV mortgage to buy one?

If you have to then clearly you couldn't afford that investment or as they say trying to wear a big hat when your head ain't all that big.

From your postings it is pretty clear you have little to no understanding to any type of investments in this country no need to talk about Shanghai or NYC or London.
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Tell these to BBB/uuu, certainly not me.

icemanfx
post May 15 2019, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(tadashi987 @ May 14 2019, 11:53 PM)
haha good post, I read page by page for my knowledge in property market.

Was thinking to buy my first house as it is HOC this year, but looking at the market now, I did the calculation as it seem like I hardly able to cover my installment by conventional rental yield.

Majority told me rental able to cover 80% is already very best case for market now.

Other tolds me the only way that MIGHT gain positive cash flow is only by AirBnb.

Somehow pull my legs back for getting my first property :|
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If rental could cover loan instalment, qualified tenants would have bought.
icemanfx
post May 15 2019, 12:17 AM

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QUOTE(tadashi987 @ May 15 2019, 12:02 AM)
so the market now either
1) do partion as much as u could, possible to get positive rental
2) flip
3) hold for long haul, wishing for appreciation while rent and bleeding 20+-% loss every month ?
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Unit a and b have same floor area, unit a has 3 rooms, unit b has 5 rooms. If budget is not a issue, which unit room you will choose? How much cheaper need to be for you to choose unit b?

Bleed 20% is provided you have tenant.

icemanfx
post Oct 27 2022, 12:40 AM

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QUOTE(Aldo-Kirosu @ Oct 26 2022, 01:47 PM)
So the question:
1. Is it Bank Valuation = Market Value?
2. Is it  Market Value is based on the supply and demand of 1 area, or bank valuation determine the market value?
3. If Ali ready sold his unit at 550K, and will it be new market value? and how many unit sold at market at new price only will then become a new market value?
4. How to determine Bank value vs Market value vs Developer value?
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Poorperly price is probably the least transparent among all investible assets. there could be substantial difference between market, valuation, auction, transacted, etc price.

Developer s&p price is normally future price plus inflated for loan purpose. Bank valuation is from licensed valuers; largely calculated from recently transacted price. market price not from recently transacted is mostly hearsay. vendor's asking price is often whims and fancy or syok sendiri. transacted price is willing buyer and willing seller.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Oct 27 2022, 12:53 PM

 

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