QUOTE(dwRK @ Oct 12 2022, 03:06 PM)
But 100% capital + 2.5% min div guaranteed wor... and historically better than fd wor...

That's fair. In the worst case, BNM can just print money to top up your EPF (in fact they are already doing that now, but to fund government expenses via EPF as middleman, according to local fund manager source whom I should not quote). I was just pointing out some of the possible issues.
And err, 2.5% p.a. minimum has strings attached it, if you read the act carefully.
https://www.kwsp.gov.my/en/about-epf/news-h...es/epf-act-1991» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
Just make sure you care about real returns, not nominal ones. Purchasing power is important.
Bro, how can you make this mistake as well? You are sifu ooo...
Past results are no indicator of future performance. QUOTE(soul78 @ Oct 12 2022, 03:36 PM)
3/4 of assets in MY is actually a good thing... and also remaining 1/4 in gomen debt i also a good thing as most of the debts is also denominated in MYR. Risks to EPF is less actually.
Put in banks, bank runs can happen when bank collapse.Ability not to remove money is possible as it's already happening in CCPland and US noow.
Put in EPF, i stiil see it as way less risk as compared to the above as it's our country's sovereign pension fund. The impact to government and country is far higher if EPF folds as compared to banks. Just loook at how BOE stepped in to save their country's pencen funds when it was in trouble recently. Most verry verry likely malaysia will do the same.
On inflation part, can't be helped... a few major country WILL go into recession next year. As long as printing money is not excessive till it creates a feedback loop to bail out entities and print more money, we should be still fine compared to others.
Your kiasu kiasi friend has a different idea.

Their GIC invests worldwide and diversify CPF holder's investments across different classes and have different currencies exposure.
https://www.gic.com.sg/our-portfolio/https://report.gic.com.sg/investment-report.htmlAnd that is despite the fact that SGD has to appreciate over the long run due to MAS monetary policy. So getting dividends/realized capital gains back to SG will incur some 2% p.a. loses over time depending on how steep S$NEER curve rises.
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Depending on how you see it, risk to EPF is less if you look at
nominal terms, since BNM can just print MYR to cover up the hole. But in
real terms, this action will cause MYR to lose its value significantly. Your purchasing power evaporates. Your MYR "stored" in your EPF account can then "buy nothing". I don't think that's what a retiree expect when he withdraws his "retirement savings".
Always remember, it's real returns that matter in the end. You want your purchasing power to be protected throughout your working ages and possibly earn a risk premium on top of that with risk assets in a well-diversified portfolio.
lol UK pension funds that are affected by LDI are mostly defined benefit plans. EPF doesn't have defined benefit plans (ours is called defined contribution plan, you contribute a portion of your salary to your pensions). I don't think EPF has used LDI strategy as of now unless the government starts to shift to some form of minimum payout guaranteed which carries some elements of defined benefit at its minmum.
In fact, the LDI crisis in the UK illustrates what happened when funds hold lots of government treasury bills, notes or bonds in its portfolio. A surging government bond yields force the pension funds to top up their collateral against their LDI counterparty, but they don't have so much cash in a matter of few hours, which in turns means they have to liquidate more gilts to bring down the margin, causing more funds to sell even more gilts to fulfill their collateral/margin requirements. Imagine 1/4 of MGS/GII issued held in the hands of EPF and if EPF has to do this...
Hope that helps.
I can see that you really like Malaysia a lot and is a strong supporter of MY's pension system. EPF is actually a good vehicle judging by the system as it allows for lots of flexibility (compared to the stupid HK MPF system...), but well, no match to my favourite CPF

I respect your view anyway, you got some valid points there.
This post has been edited by TOS: Oct 12 2022, 05:19 PM