QUOTE(paogeh @ Nov 14 2019, 09:55 AM)
basically REPO ,
how does it affect FX ?
Eg , now FED pump too much USD.
Does this mean USD would be weaker ?
First thing you need to know is 'what is repo'. Basically,
1)Forex is settled daily. That means in their account books, if a bank is short a certain currency, they need to borrow it from somewhere to square off.
2)They do this by borrowing from other financial institutions. Usually these are other banks.
3)The rate at which they charge interest is the repo rate. This rate is usually similar to the interest set by that country's central bank.
3a)For example, if you need to borrow dollars, you will go to an american bank and borrow some dollars for 1 night. You repay the money back tomorrow with the interest rate set by the US central bank. At this point of writing, that interest rate should be 1.5%-1.75%. Same case, if somebody wants to borrow ringgit, they will find a Malaysian bank and borrow ringgit from us. Then the next day they will repay with 3% interest as set by bank negara opr rate.
3b)Bonus info: This is where your +ve or -ve swaps come from when you trade forex. When you sell eurusd, you're selling euros and buying dollars. At the back office, your broker will receive the swaps at the end of the day and pass it to you. The opposite is true.
4)Repo market is the main tool used by central banks to inject or take away liquidity in the market. Those quantitative easing things you hear on the market is basically done through the repo market.
4a)Fed purchases Treasury securities to increase the supply of money and sells them to reduce the supply of money.
4b)For example now the fed is buying up treasuries. If you are a bank that needs some USD, you can "lend" the fed your bonds overnight and get some USD + interest. So when your swap unwinds, you now have your bonds back + a little bit of extra USD. By doing this, the fed effectively print money and inject liquidity into the financial system.
5)Last month, there was a liquidity crisis. There was not enough dollars in the market. So people started charging a higher price to lend out their dollars. In other words, the repo rate shot up too high, beyond the set interest rate by the fed. In the past, bear sterns went bankrupt because they couldn't square their books due to liquidity crisis. And that subsequently started the 2008 financial crisis. So now the fed wants to make sure that it can always maintain the repo rate close to their set interest rate. Because markets get scared when there's a liquidity crisis.
5a)The fed has been doing "quantitative easing" everyday since then.
6)Because they have been injecting the market with so much cash, the repo rate will naturally drift lower. But as the article wrote, this is strictly better than "not enough dollars". They want a low interest rate to spur the economy into spending. Because part of their mandate is to achieve a 2% inflation rate.
7)At the moment, there is no cause for concern. This is likely a non issue. Even if it drifts lower, the fed can simply stop the bond swaps and the market will be back to normal.
8)If repo rates are the only thing that affect USD, then yes, the USD should be lower. But right now, the market is focused on trump's trade deal. If the trade deal is successful, then dollar will rally. If the deal is not successful, then dollar will fall.