some guy is bearish on bitcoin long-term. do you disagree with his analysis ?
1. fraudulent trades by whales pushing up the pricethere’s pretty good evidence that there's a lot of fraud going on. Look, every market in the world — gold, silver, stocks, bonds, Libor — every market, you name it. They've all been searching to manipulation. That's why we have all these regulators; that's why we have the SEC; that’s why the stock exchange is regulated, etc. Are we supposed to believe that bitcoin is the only market in history that's not manipulated? That’s nonsense, of course it is.
In fact, the fact that it’s unregulated is a magnet for all the manipulators who probably were, you know, The Wolf of Wall Street, you know, 20 years ago. So the point is — imagine the following: you and I are bitcoin miners, right? So I sell you at 10,000. You sell back to me to 10,100. I sell back to you at 10,200. We just traded back and forth all day. There’s no P&L. We’re trading the same bitcoin back and forth. That’s called painting the tape. These exchanges get reported on the bitcoin exchanges. So an outsider who’s completely naive about this, says, “oh look the price is going up.”
It's just you and me painting the tape. It’s the oldest, you know, the oldest fraud in the book. It’s call a ramp or, you know, whatever you want to call it. But the point is that brings in the suckers from the sidelines and then they buy it.
2. bitcoin mining will hit a wall in 2020And, of course, what do we care? We're miners so our costs — the costs are going up very steeply by the way — this thing is completely non-sustainable. There have been — the amount of electricity power — the reason the bitcoin miners are in China is because they burn coal, pollute the air, and have subsidized electricity. Or they’re in Iceland because it's so cold, it reduces their cooling costs for all the computing power.
Right now they're using — bitcoin miners — every year are using as much electricity as the country of Nigeria — a country of 90 million people. Before long will be using as much as Japan, third largest economy in the world. That's not going to happen. You can say that, that’s the simple extrapolation, but there's no way the bitcoin industry is going to be allowed to use as much electricity as the country of Japan. But that's how much you need to mine the bitcoin. So they're going to hit a wall, in terms of total bitcoin output. At that point the miners have no incentive to mine. So who’s going to validate the blockchain? Are they going to charge a fee? Well fine, that sounds like Wells Fargo. That’s what banks do.
http://www.businessinsider.com/economist-j...n-2017-12/?IR=Tadd global warming and carbon footprints.
too much energy goes to maintain the btc ecosystem.
Jun 13 2017, 01:41 PM
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