QUOTE(khannhinah @ Apr 10 2018, 12:35 PM)
fundamental reason one: goverments and financial institutions are suppressing crypto. these restrictions did not yet exist during mid-2017.
fundamental reason two: futures market allow big players to long and short . futures did not yet exist during mid-2017.
" never say never.". very sophisticated and professional reasoning there. so let me throw back the question to you, do you logically expect a repeat of the bubble and hysteria which will drive btc to triple its price from now till december 2018 ? give your reasons why.
I honestly can't tell whether you are being sarcastic with your "sophisticated and professional reasoning" remark, so I'll leave it at that, but that's honestly the philosophy I carry with me. I have been around long enough to put aside my arrogance that I am omniscient enough to be dead sure about anything especially in the financial markets.
Note that I did not say I
expect a repeat of the bull run of 2017, I just asked you why you thought it was delusional to think so.
But having said that, yes I do expect that the cryptosphere will triple its current market capitalisation within 2018.
Governments and financial institutions are suppressing crypto.....maybe yes, currently.
But at the same time, cryptocurrencies are getting more and more exposure to the masses (for good or bad), and adoption is getting more and more widespread in countries that have embraced it, like Japan. In fact, several countries have already announced that they are planning to launch their own government-backed and -issued digital currency, meaning they aren't *against* crypto, they are just against the ones that are currently available (and not controlled by them).
Yes, I fully agree with you that the futures market is really throwing a wrench in the works at the moment. But we are only in the first few months, hence I think we can forgive the volatility somewhat. Over time, I expect the volatility to subside into a more manageable level. There are many other vehicles with futures, like precious metals, oil, commodities, etc. that have been around for ages and do not see massive 70% swings when the futures expire.
OK maybe not exactly the best analogy, but I guess you catch my drift.
The big players are scary and can bully the little guys around, but only for so long. Trillions or not, I do not believe they can keep this suppression indefinitely.
In the age of horses and carriages, nobody could stop the advent of the automobile; similarly, nobody could stop the advent of the television, the telephone, email, the Internet, VoIP, and every other major technological breakthrough. It will not be any different with distributed ledger technology, and by extension, cryptocurrencies.
You may not agree with me, of course, and that's perfectly fine......that's what this forum is for.