if not catalyst to push market to get a good bounce off from FBMKLCI above 1760 and close above 1770, then we are probably heading lower... this week is crucial.
Investors Club V10, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam
Investors Club V10, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam
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Jun 1 2017, 10:39 AM
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#1
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if not catalyst to push market to get a good bounce off from FBMKLCI above 1760 and close above 1770, then we are probably heading lower... this week is crucial.
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Jun 1 2017, 01:34 PM
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#2
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Ringgit strengthening -> Foreign investor decrease buying
valid? |
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Jun 5 2017, 08:44 AM
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#3
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QUOTE(contestchris @ Jun 4 2017, 04:54 PM) Generally, as a rule of thumb, you can say that for a company with a long-form ROE of 10%, the P/BV will roughly be around ~1.0X. However, from here on out, there is an exponential relationship between ROE and P/BV. So say a company with a long-form ROE of 20% may have a P/BV of 3.0X, and a company with a long-form ROE of 30% may have a P/BV of 6.0X etc. It's interesting to point out that PE = PB / ROE = P / EPS For SCICOM over the past 2 years it has consistently got an ROE of ~42%. It's P/BV is 8.0X. I think it's an OK price. May even be undervalued. But I have no idea about future outlook since that's always priced in. Personally, I never invest in these types of companies. Cause there is very little downside protection. The moment ROE tumbles P/BV will also fall hard. I rather invest in "fallen giants" with depressed valuations or "growers" with undemanding valuations to protect myself on the downside. But really, you need to do your own research, cause SCICOM may fall under the "growers with undemanding valuations" category. hence P = PB / ROE * EPS to spark further discussions. This post has been edited by lowya: Jun 5 2017, 08:46 AM |
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Jun 7 2017, 05:26 PM
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#4
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Sold Tenaga call warrant and switch to GESHEN 7197
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Jun 7 2017, 10:06 PM
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#5
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QUOTE(dontlosecapital @ Jun 7 2017, 08:17 PM) good bro, i check fundamental all passed, and enter at low risk entry with tight stop if things goes wrong. so cheap the pe, less than 10 @+@" since quarterly report released next day, open 2.2 now current 2.15 (discount price) so far until now, went lowest 2.09 ~~ highest 2.35.... can share what is the reason u buy de? wanna to learn ~~ I enter with 2 options in mind, for this stock i can either trade it or keep it. |
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Jun 8 2017, 07:44 PM
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#6
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Jun 9 2017, 12:11 PM
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#7
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Took profit on Samchem, switch to RCECAP
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Jun 14 2017, 12:28 PM
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#8
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any shifu here can explain why Zecon ROE 51 but PE only 1.36 ?
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Jun 15 2017, 09:23 AM
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#9
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Just entered SWKPLNT 5135 for low risk high reward bottom fishing trade, 1.7 should be taken out to propel to 1.8 area. With a 10% target should be quite conservative in view of high earning performance.
This post has been edited by lowya: Jun 15 2017, 09:31 AM |
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Jun 15 2017, 09:55 AM
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#10
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when the index is red and your portfolio no change or green, you know you have a resilient portfolio to weather the storm.
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Jun 15 2017, 12:19 PM
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Jun 15 2017, 02:25 PM
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#12
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Jun 16 2017, 08:20 AM
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#13
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Jun 16 2017, 08:46 AM
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#14
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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Jun 16 2017, 08:30 AM) Aax earning shrunk because of our currency went down but their passenger loading has increased. now that our oil price is low, currency is getting stronger I am now waiting for Q2. look at the degree of shrinkage, i use drastically to describe.I'm still thinking if I cut loss now and dump into VS then come back again. QUOTE(diversity @ Jun 16 2017, 08:30 AM) most already took profit, at current price, potential 19% downside if emotionally you can weather it should it take the drawdown heat during retracement. |
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Jun 16 2017, 01:00 PM
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QUOTE(dontlosecapital @ Jun 16 2017, 11:25 AM) aiyaa... above 5% choices:miss the boat at 31 may ALCOM give dividend so much... please correct me if i am wrong.. if i buy at 31 may 1.42, dividend 0.205, my dividend profit without tax (single tier) = 14.43% today the price is 1.92, if enter now, dividend profit will be = 10.67% how u all think about this ALCOM , ind-pro DY Close Ann. Date Stock Name 5.86% 2.56 1-Jun-17 UOADEV 11.20% 1.83 30-May-17 ALCOM 5.83% 1.2 29-May-17 LBICAP 5.81% 4.3 27-Apr-17 HARISON 5.78% 0.865 27-Apr-17 HTPADU 5.12% 2.93 27-Apr-17 FAVCO 8.89% 0.225 21-Apr-17 L&G 5.36% 1.12 13-Apr-17 THPLANT 5.85% 3.42 27-Mar-17 TONGHER Alcom indeed stands out. |
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Jun 16 2017, 03:57 PM
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Jun 16 2017, 04:21 PM
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#17
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QUOTE(Nemozai @ Jun 16 2017, 04:14 PM) Yes I purposely ignore PE. Because it varies quite significantly between industries. This is for screening. For calculating intrinsic value I did include average 10 years PE. In short, I don't use it for screening, but I did use it when calculating my intrinsic value. And I average 10 years PE. what is your minimum expected earning growth for 5y and 10y?Screening is for fundamental. For this I really focus on fundamental only. Calculating intrinsic value is to get fair price to enter. In my opinion, average PE work better here in valuation step. What do you think? |
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Jun 16 2017, 04:36 PM
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QUOTE(Nemozai @ Jun 16 2017, 04:28 PM) You mean my (stockholder's) earnings or company's earnings? i mean based on the screener you shared, do you look for the company earning growth, as there is a filter on that.Edit: Assume u mean my earnings. I expect 10-15% annualized return for each counter. Again, I mentioned before, if less, I rather buy unit trust. So I don't bother buying counter which have expected return less than 10-15%. Expected is the keyword. I know if may fail to give me 10-15% return, for example in case the company I invest suddenly bankrupt but to the very least it's expected return must be 10-15%, not less. |
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Jun 17 2017, 09:21 AM
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QUOTE(Nemozai @ Jun 16 2017, 08:27 PM) I didn't use earnings growth to screen(my first step) company. But I do use earning growth to calculate intrinsic value (my second step). Interesting fact is that even without putting earning growth in the stock screener, most of the stock counters that I got from that few criteria I listed usually have positive earnings growth. My method of valuation (second step) do require positive earning growth. With 0% or negative earning growth I can't estimate their intrinsic value, so I'll usually skip them. So I would say at least 1% for earning growth rates. But I think it won't make a difference to the list of stock counters that I get from stock screener. so from earning growth you derived intrinsic value by projecting it into future and pick the best discount you could find from the market, am i right?What's your opinion? if that is the way, then you have to constantly adjust your intrinsic value whenever new earning released, and your model will be right and wrong from Q to Q. So, i guess it end up would be same if one simply filter for positive earning growth in step one. But for me i screen for technical as first step broadly, second step to verify whether fundamental fits my min requirements, because to me priority is risk control (or market timing) > selecting good company. At the point of fund availability, I look at what satisfy both my risk control and fundamental assessment and enter accordingly with tight sl. My method will not let me find the greatest stock in bursa, but most likely it will let price move in my favor most of the time to allow tp. |
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Jun 18 2017, 04:06 PM
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#20
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QUOTE(Nemozai @ Jun 18 2017, 12:35 AM) So you look at technical analysis first, and then only u look at fundamental am I right? How do you screen for technical to prioritize risk control? Can you briefly tell me? I want to learn too. briefly, you want to calculate drawdown between current price to fractals or moving average or previous resistance, whichever that previously responded well to derive the % risk. This method assume that most fundamentally good stocks would have moved hence technical risk would be rather high, so you could enter choosing the least risk among preciously filtered fundamental stocks basket. You wait patiently, if nothing within your defined risk factor, you stay out from market, sit on your itchy hands. I want to make it clear. Trader: Look at price movement and do technical analysis only, ignore fundamental completely. Value investor : Find best company (best fundamental), then try to find intrinsic value (to look for entry price) You: Try to find best price (with technical analysis), then enter if fundamental is strong, do not enter if fundamental is not strong. Am I right? Nowadays you cannot define what trader or investor do exactly, they have each of their styles depending to their priority, risk appetite, fund size, investment timeframe, etc. In the end, the question you have to answer is what is your comfortable method that you feel most reasonable within your restrictions. But if you are a fund manager, first priority for you is manage your risk, fundamental/technical/market risks. |
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