Short term, its fundamental is rosy, due to very good crack spread or refining margin.

But it needs to undergo major upgrade on their refining operation to meet Euro 4 spec in 2018 and a more distant future Euro 5, aka needs some major capex and potential downtime due to upgrading works, which may affect its future profitability level.

Currently no major capex, little depreciation, good profit figure.

After major capex, more depreciation may drag down the profitability, if profit margin is still the same.

There is a reason why refining company stocks are trading at single digit of PE across the globe, as it is capital intensive hence it may affect potential generous dividend prospect for minority shareholders as well as profit margin is always in cyclical in nature.

Refining margin is always exposed to crude oil movement, which we know crude oil is never a stable commodity.
Gasoline price is affected by demand and supply of between refiners and consumer vehicle.
Crude oil price is affected by demand of supply of oil producing countries and refiners.

For the last 1-2 years, there is oversupply of crude oil, hence refiners can buy cheap crude oil, while consumer demand of gasoline still the same, resulted refiners can earn good profit (good crack spread).

Summarise,
Short term up to next year major capex, fundamental is indeed very good, that's why its price shoot up a lot.

Long term, up to anyone guess.
Refining business or profitability is always cyclical, up and down never in a stable line one.

It has to do with deferred taxation due to previous year of massive loss.

The major issue of HY is that its needs major capex for Euro 4M upgrade and needs to do within next year due to regulatory requirement in 2018, which means potential downtime in near future.
The downtime may affect its financial result.

It depends on the coming Q result, which should be quite good, around 5~8x PE should be a fair for its stock price.
You can check other global refiners, data should be easily available in CNBC or Bloomberg.

Generally, refiners need to do major overhaul for every 3-4 years, whereby you see their profit figure plunge during that period/Q result/financial year due to downtime.

The main drag for UMW was UMWOG.

Since the distributing the UMWOG shares to the UMW shareholders, UMWOG is no longer an associated company of UMW, so the financial book of UMWOG won't be appear in UMW in the coming Q.

So we should see a "new face" of UMW in the new Q.

It is worth for new attention or new look from current onwards.

Having said so, UMW is not solely about Myvi, it has engineering manufacturing division and Toyota distribution division as well (which I guess may not performing that well, due to RM depreciation)

If local stock market generally is heading down, so does unit trust fund that holding local stock, no one escape from the down turn.

Company with lot of import raw materials aka import USD but product sell in RM, typically auto-assembly.

Company with lot of USD borrowing.

Sime Plantation is a bit expensive at Rm5.xx

EPS is expected in teen number only from what I read from some report.

The good high EPS or specifically net EPS (market only concern about net EPS as it is the net amount shareholders can get) is due to

1. Higher than usual crack spread due to Hurricane in US that resulted many refiners offline and sent crack spread rocketing in the Q.

2. There is a portion is contributed by forex gain.

3. There is no tax incurred, due to previous year of massive loss. Once those loss is "absorbed" and being utilised, it needs to pay tax again.

Having said that, crack spread still maintains at reasonable high level, which it should able to register good EPS number for near term although may not as high as 120 cents, probably in the region of 60~90 cents. <-- my guess only

Share price may continue to creep forward due to the good number.

Risk
a) In the report, the company did mention potential narrowing refining margin ahead, may be due to crack spread futures market indicator

b) Potential delay in the Euro4 upgrading, and potential turnaround (offline) for 2 and 1/2 months in 2018, so it may cause a Q result in a significant red number in 2018.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 1 2017, 09:54 AM

The company first and foremost goal is the upgrading work, which regulatory requirement has a timeline for Euro 4 and Euro 5 target.

It would deserve a higher PE, when it clear the hurdle of upgrading work, and give good dividend to shareholders.

Nowadays (especially KLSE), the market trust the dividend more than profit figure.
Give good dividend when reporting good profit figure - share price rocket 2x.
Report good profit figure, but no dividend or dividend increment - share price rocket 0.5x.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 4 2017, 09:45 AM

Sentiment is poor across.

Good for bottom fishing though.

Around Rm20+ should be fully valued at near term.
As for next financial year, it won't be making as much profit as 2017.

IBs or call warrant issuing banks may be scrambling to buy the stock to cover their call warrant position, in order to avoid huge loss on call warrant when maturing, that may send the share price even higher.

Window dressing, fund managers want to make their funds look good.

As normally, account closed on 31/12, and pricing is based on last day of trade.

They do provide liquidity to the market, and normalise the market swing potentially, especially in a big sell off time.

Last time in the 80's to 90's, retailers were the main participant that made up more than 70% of the market transaction, share price did swing wildly due to retailers sentiment,
Just like HY recently, that without major participation of those pension fund, and see how wildly its price swing.

So there are always pros and cons, no definitely answer.

But if price did swing wildly, some retailers may be slaughtered big as well.

The movement is simply "crazy" as well as volume transacted is fast and furious.
It is 10+ RM stock, volume transacted already reached 15 mil, means 150 mil transacted in a single stock, somemore this stock is not known for high liquidity, as bulk of the share is in the hand of major shareholders.

Price constantly moving in fast pace.
It is even more "thrilling" than casino.

Morning session, there was still continue sell off until 11.3x, then afternoon session up non-stop to 14.30...

A Rm 3 turn around.

Whole week, it started at 16.80 sold off until 11.3x then closed at 14.30.
Whatever TA, support line, bollinger band, MACD, SMA can be thrown into dustbin.

Don't need to diversify too much, if there are 8 banks in the market, stick to the top 2~4 top tier one may good enough for diversification already.

If top few banks are having poor performance, the rest highly won't be good either, so the diversification won't spare the downturn much.

Go for quality instead of quantity.

Companies do release their financial report every 3 months, look at its cashflow statement, or via its balance sheet.

All listed companies must release their Q report within 2 months time.

Some also release within a month time as well.

Those listed companies that are not compliance with listing requirement (to release Q report within 2 months), better watch out.

errr... a bit confusing on the term use.

I guess due to the previous years, the company registered loss before taxation, hence it used loss before taxation, and listed out the impact of those currency towards its final figure of loss before taxation.

Based on the on the screenshot you provided, and based on my interpretation (could be wrong), the strengthen of USD by 10% impacted (10,374) on 2016 aka a decrease impact of loss before taxation.

In other word, the strengthening USD benefit the company and decrease the loss.

It makes sense as bulk of its revenue are in USD based. An increase of USD should increase its profit (if register a profit) or decrease its loss before taxation (when register a loss time).

Buy and hold only applicable to fundamental intact stocks.
Buy and hold penny and fundamental deteoriated stocks is suicide method.

Stock picking is more important, instead of citing whether "buy and hold" works or not, or whatever method is better.

Pick the right stock example Nestle recently, all methods work.

Since KLCI becomes 30 stocks components, it seldom reflect well about overall market situation.

A few component stocks like Nestle, Maybank, if up significantly already can push up the index to new high.