Poison me ah?

Me trying not to read his messages anymore la.

Unpoison me mind

KUALA LUMPUR (July 29): Foodstuffs, New Zealand's largest retail grocery organisation, said Top Glove Corp Bhd's products will remain off its shelves until the glove maker satisfies its ethical standards in rubber glove production, Newsroom reported today.

Lagi best... I also dunno how if this Scientist got use calculator one or not.

See



Their project net projected CY2021E net profit is 1528.
Their eps is 45.9 sen mah.

So if a 43x Pe multiple is used...

Then the TP = 43x45.9 = 19.73 sen mah... 

How did they get TP of 22.30??? 
Anyway, that's not the point...

QUESTION IS WHAT IF SAME pe MULTIPLE OF 21.5 IS USED?  

Well TP would be 45.9x21.5 = 9.86

      Mama next time I want to be a Stock Scientist too..... anywhow tembak also can one! 

This does not make any business sense. Top Glove being the biggest glove manufacturer in the world should be easier and faster to raise its selling price for its products. Investors must realise that any additional selling price is pure profit because it does not involve production cost.

8 research houses updated their target prices for Top Glove as below. 

Affin Hwang Outperform Rm 46.40 20/7/2020
Credit Suisse Outperform Rm 37.00 15/7/2020
Kenanga Investment Bank Outperform Rm 32.00 13/7/2020
TA Securities Buy Rm 31.66 14/7/2020
Hong Leong Buy Rm 31.31 15/7/2020
Cimb Securities Buy Rm 31.30 14/7/2020
Nomura Buy 30.65 14/7/2020
Macquaries Outperform 30.40 14/7/2020   

Top Glove will announce unprecedented profit soon. 
My objective for writing this piece is to help investors to make more money. Whether you buy or not does not make any difference to the share price because the daily volume traded is several tens of million shares. 

The next quarterly report for both Superman and TopGun....

TopGun net profits per quarter

2019 Q1 81 million 2020 Q1 111 million
2019 Q2 82 million 2020 Q2 115 million
2019 Q3 125million 2020 Q3 347 million
2019 Q4 141million 2020 Q4 _________

and what's your own estimate for TopGun net profit to be? _________

Scientist from Kenanga calling for 821 million.

Ok. I sort of figured it out....lol .... dunno if correct or not.

The next quarter for Harta is Fy21 Q1 already and at end of the year Harta would be reporting FY21 Q2.

So Kenanga Big Scientist is NOT gonna use these two quarters for the TP calculation.

The Scientist gonna use FY21 Q3, FY 21 Q4, FY22 Q1 and FY22 Q2 numbers as these quarterly reports will be reported in 2021 calendar year.

   

So this scientist estimate eps for those quarters is 51.8 sen.
In their table, had Harta number of shares at 3,380 million shares.
Therefor, the estimate profits is 1750 million! (which is obviously gonna be higher than fy 21 estimate profit of 1528 million )
Which works out on average a profit of 437.5 million per quarter.

Errrr..... correct ah?

LOL! I am trying so hard to be a scientist too leh...
Want to learn how to tipu cow cow la!

and the PE multiple used is 43x!!!

** The other Scientist must be so jelly cos his GOLD STANDARD is only 20x PE

** I understand. They used to average median PE or something like that to justify 43x...

** I reckon this is PLATINUM STANDARD lo.... calendar year eps...lol ...
for comparison again....

2019 Q1 124 million 2020 Q1 94 million
2019 Q2 120 million 2020 Q2 103 million
2019 Q3 119 million 2020 Q3 121 million
2019 Q4 113 million 2020 Q4 115 million

FY2019 456 million
FY2020 435 million
Now if Harta reports a 2021 Q1 profit of 230 million... which is doubled its profit reported in Q4 .... which is also its higheest ever profit in its history....
how would the market describe Harta's performance?

LOUSY?



would anyone dare call out that Harta's performance is actually good but these Scientist in order to ramp up the stock prices is the culprit?
They simply tembak here and there to get those high TPs!

Is 219 million la

my target ... 230 million   

Is 219 million la

my target ... 230 million   

an annualised quarterly profit of 382 million per quarter IF based on their FY21estimates

but as said, they did not used FY21e but they instead used Calendar year 21e 

Today's result is for Q1 FY2021. Kenanga forecast for 2021 is 1200m while CIMB forecast is 1500m. If you divide that by 4 quarters evenly that's around 300m and 375m. But if you factor in that most of the higher ASP will come in during the later quarters and the CEO's remarks that they can only cater to new customers (spot) in 9 months time, then we may very well have a cheap sale tomorrow.

Find the attachment or not?

#2574 la


See their fy21e is 1528.3 million.

But they did not use this number...

 

they used CY21e ..... which is not written there... got to count own self ... 

So this scientist estimate eps for those quarters is 51.8 sen.
In their table, had Harta number of shares at 3,380 million shares.
Therefor, the estimate profits is 1750 million!

Which works out on average a profit of 437.5 million per quarter.

...but the scientists did leave themselves with an escape hatch wo...
their TP is based on CY21e numbers...
this Q is only fy21 Q1 number...
this number not included in their TP... so all is okay     

LOL!

jk la

CY21Q1 reported already mah... 219 million

But yeah....you are hired

Jahat lu... where the rotan?

I am not clicking on that link...

Oii Oiii ... not a bloody tipsy mate... just a rooting for si bodoh .....

 

not a tipsy la ....................................
but i just peeped ......

no wonder u so happy!

ChAOoz
Came in only 14% of their full year forecast ..... 

LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!

Only 14%  .......

like very the malu leh....

yet somehow.... they raised the FY21e higher .... from 1528 to 1687.9 million...

LOL!!! 1st quarter already undershot by so much and yet can tembak the forecast higher....

let's see if fy21e is now 1687.9 million, then effectively it is saying Harta will report in 1687.9-219 = 1468.9 million for the remaining 3 quarters...
or an average of around 490 million per quarter....

but again their TP is based on CY.... 
(is their fy21e numbers not high enough meh?)

remember previously their CY eps is only 51.8 sen...
their CY eps is now even higher at 57 sen.

AVFAN

I am ok with optimistic earnings projections...
yeah... as a stock scientist, I do understand that you cannot be behind the curve....
BUT .... this is really bordering to ridiculous lor ... yes?
the harta report is attached... 

You are hired....... Head Scientist

is KYY's calculation on topglove TP RM100 achievable? what is he smoking?

In the 3rd quarter ending May, its revenue Rm 1,688 million – PBT 422 million = Rm 1,266 million production cost.

Assuming 10% selling price increase its revenue for June was Rm 1,688 X 1.10 = Rm 1.857 million – production cost Rm 1,266 = PBT Rm 591 million.

Assuming 10% selling price increase its revenue for July was Rm 1,857 X 1.1 = Rm 2043 million – production cost Rm 1,266 = PBT Rm 777 million.

Assuming 10% selling price increase its revenue for Aug will be Rm 2043 X 1.1 = Rm 2247 million – production cost Rm 1,266 = PBT m 981 million.

Total PBT for 4th quarter Rm 2,349 million. Assuming 25% tax PAT Rm 1,762 million

The next quarterly report for both Superman and TopGun....

TopGun net profits per quarter

2019 Q1 81 million  2020 Q1 111 million
2019 Q2 82 million  2020 Q2 115 million
2019 Q3 125million  2020 Q3 347 million
2019 Q4 141million  2020 Q4 _________

and what's your own estimate for TopGun net profit to be?  _________

Scientist from Kenanga calling for 821 million.

This number has to be hit.
Why?
The next fiscal year, they are calling for a net profit of 3996 million.

ALL THE RECENT HIGH TP HAS ALL BEEN BASED ON SKY HIGH PROFIT ESTIMATION....

any miss, ie if TopGun reports a profit of say 700 million for the coming quarter... that would mean TopGun earnings was very lousy....
But is it really lousy?
700 million net profit by all means is actually very impressive...
but with the Char Kway Teuw goreng happening, a 700 million profit would be deemed very poor SINCE IT EXPOSES HOW WEAK THE JUSTIFICATION FOR TopGun to be trading at current prices... and it will lay case that TopGun is trading at very insane high prices...

Yes, it's kinda situpid...
but what to do...
stocks fried so high...
if the earnings do not back these scientist up..
it will expose the nonsense....
Superman net profit per quarter

2019 Q1 35 million  2020 Q1 24 million
2019 Q2 38 million  2020 Q2 30 million
2019 Q3 34 million  2020 Q3 71 million
2019 Q4 15 million  2020 Q4 _________

and again what's your own estimate for Superman net profit to be?  _________

Scientist like Ah Koon used 410 million to justify his high target price.

LOL! Can ah?

If net profit only 300 million, how? consider piss poor ah?

****

So for both stocks, it's crystal clear the market is pricing in an extremely high net profit for both stocks.
If both stocks don't hit the target, it would simply mean, it's BELOW ESTIMATES....
meaning the stocks doesn't really have a good justification to trade so high.....

That's the main risk.
On the other hand...
I have seen it happened before...
these scientists... they pandai pandai buat tak tahu....
Scientists mah...
they could do the twist and shout...
and come up with new SCIENTIFIC REASONING that the stocks could still trade higher...
LOL!
So laughable... but I have seen it happen b4...
Anyway.... good luck to all who still believe ..... 

Kenanga trying to play catch up ....
Comments.

1. wtf is 20.8x pe multiple?
LOL! 20x cannot meh? 22x cannot meh? why need to sound so geng using 20.8x.
So baffling! LOL!

2. Again is CY. WTF is wrong with these scientist. Grrrr..... why cannot stick to Fiscal year?
you susah susah make a research report and you want me to figure out WTF you are trying to say?
You be fired if I am the one you are writing for...

So CY 21 will consists of 2021 Q2, 2021 Q3, 2021 Q4, 2022 Q1 reports.

See how bloody confusing and ridiculous it is! 

3. Estimate CY EPS is 122.3. The number of share outstanding they use is 1291 million shares.
Their estimate CY profit then should be 1576 million. Correct ah?

Yeah... damn... the user must count sendiri.... 

4. If only 1571 million... then annualised (divide by 4) ~ 394 million per quarter only wo....

Isn't the scientist behind the curve?  or is the scientist suggesting no growth? 
*** perhaps another report is coming... with bigger numbers? 
** my counting correct ah? 

SuperMan .....
   

Honestly I wasn't expecting this to happen... did saw minor weakness in TopGun but it's nothing too conclusive was my opinion yesterday.

Today, it just snowballed right down... dragging everything ....

anakMY

Here you go ...





Sounds familiar or not?