Botak kor kor....

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/investing-m...ets-stocks.html

Take GenM again as an example.
It was trading close to rm6.
Now it's less than rm3.

So does this mean that because GenM (with its well known reputation as a good 'fundamental' stock) means a good buy?

Well the misconception here it's 'recent high' price.
They cement their mindset on that rm6.
And they use a 'traders mindset' and anchor this high as their POINT OF REFERENCE to calculate their discount.

Well what's the risk?

The risk is this rm6 point of reference might not be reached again anytime in the near future.

RM6 was during the time when the market was still bubbly.
Market was willing to chase the stock up (in regardless of its earnings multiples)

Then we have the gambling tax issue.
Unless this changes in the near future, the tax will eat heavy into the companies profit.

So to anchor the GenM using rm6 as a point of reference is simply suicidal.

And of course next we have the outdoor theme park issue.
Putting aside any impairment losses or litigation losses, without a well known brand for its outdoor theme park, future outdoor park will not be rosy.
Which means, earnings will not be as rosy as being projected....

all this will hurt GenM earnings.

so what's the ball park opportunist valuation for GenM?

3.20 or even maybe 3.60?

What's the price now?

Is the current beaten down price so attractive?

Yeah, he wants tips and he wants it fastest!

Data analysis lesson 101 course

When can I sign up!

  simplicity is the best policy. 
there's not much info out there on the data driven analysis for a noob investor.
need sifu ajar

Ask Smurf.
Mine one is the simple one. Might not be good. 

9 -> 10 -> 11 = Good.

9 -> 11 -> 13 = Sibeh good

11 -> 10 -> 9 = Gostan = No Good

11 -> 9 -> 7 = Mati katak

You sure you want to sign up? 

Charts posted in this thread is for general chit-chat only.

DO NOT SIMPLY FOLLOW!!!

... panjang or pendek ?

Bingo!

4. but then it can be considered a stroke of genius, he literally ended the dangers of an over heating global economy. The excess has to be rinsed and washed. Strong survive and win. The weak? Bungkus loh..... the painful truth, no?

5. That puts the end to the itchy Fed fingers. Rates too high, also can die one. And yes, the bond already lead the way, a few months back.
and now, perhaps a cut, maybe? ie.... the rescue plan was already in motion....

6. ... and the main band aid.... the self inflected wounds ...well..it's not impossible ... but it can addressed if those buggers sit and workout a deal..... well, isn't this in motion already?

Lurk over here once awhile but I do find the discourse here intellectually stimulating unlike some of the rubbish over at I3Investor.

Yeah most earnings are not improving....

Can someone tell me a good broker from the UK?

I think you would be interested to see the information bolt-fx.com broker where you will find answers to all your questions about one of the best UK brokers. BoltFX pays special attention to customer needs and guarantees them confidentiality and security.

Regarding Mayban....
The strategy...

First. To have a target of 10... for me... it's right off the charts. Which means ur strategy is dictated by the chart...

If that was the case, the buy is supported by the fact the stock did have a support of around 8.50 recently. However how strong of a support is that? I for one, would be worried of the immediate down channel which is looking rather prominent.. Can u see that channel/trend?

If basing on this I would be asking if the risk/reward justifies the trade. Doesn't look like too much meat there....

** here is the chart **

[attachmentid=10328165]

**addum**

so if one buy at 8.50 with the target set at 10, the potential upside is 1.50 or about 17% ...
and the stop loss? 7%? 7.5%? 10%?
The gain is not that much , yes?

Yeah dividends can help... but then this is a time factor issue where if it was me, I would probably factor in other stuff...
for example, previously at 10, Mayban was trading with a trailing dps of 57 sen or a pretty generous 5.7% yield. Yet here we are, despite that generous 5.7% yield, the stock is now at 8.44 and the yield is 6.75% (higher yield due to the falling stock price). So definitely the dividend doesn't seem to help the 'investor' at all. Of course this could drag on forever, if one starts insisting by holding the stock on a longer time frame, such as more than one year...  but then... this would have gone against the initial strategy of betting to win 1.50 from this mayban trade, yes?

The meat in the initial trade isn't really that fat in the first place. Now if I have to hold it longer, then my compounded returns would be down for this stock play....
and then what about the DRP factor if I were to hold it on a longer time frame? Would earnings dilutions  be a factor (I have yet to look see into this...so... )

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Stocks are priced to its future prospects... right now, the banking sector is not looking too good as global banks are cutting its rates. A lower Opr from Bank N would cause lower loan interest rates which means the risk is that Bank earnings would decline in the near future. Less earnings would means the possibly of lesser dividends. Adding to its problems, its already been reported that loan growths are already declining...

So.. atm.. I would not jump in.

Just sharing la... I could always be wrong by being too conservative....

And this ain't an attack.

How about Prlexus?

More important is what Smurfs thinks

Still waiting meh?
There seems to be slightly more choices....

To be a good trader also requires the trader to access the 'market' conditions, ie is like reading the tea leaves ....

so what did we have? The unlimited QE ... the unreal tsunami of helicopter money... too much money seeking returns... in which the best way is to play up the market... which they can easily justify by using the market discounting analogy ... ie.... the market will price in and ignore the next couple (2) qtrs of bad earnings....and insinuate that everything will be A-Ok once a cure or vaccine is found for Nineteen.

so the big boys WILL PLAY UP the market ...... which means if you follow that equates your REWARD for taking on the current market.

The risk? The virus might take much longer to contain. As you have said, things are really bad in the street and certain companies, they would most likely go bust. A much higher risk of course is retailer like Parkson. Declining profits since 2015. One bad quarter after another. Without the virus, this company was already very shaky. Now with the MCO all around, how much more can Parkson tahan?

so if you had decided to play the market, your stop losses had to be real tight and you really need to avoid those companies who were already in a bad condition before.

Yes, everything is all about understanding the risk and reward. Is there really any meat to trade the stock?

And yes, for heaven sake, please don't ever be the nonsensical KFC trader. Do not take risk big money to win a miserable KFC meal.....
stay safe.

if one buys correctly (there's the saying... buying correctly solves most of the other problems... such as when to sell ..) so if I had decided to to be in an early phase of a trade ... then .... I would do nothing but sit on the trade. Sitting and doing nothing when your position is correct is how one builds to be successful...

Sunreit... no dividend.. indicator for other reits?

(yet their management fees increased.. Lol)

So the question of course is there meat?

Firstly, as a trader, I would like to see how the market reacts to 'surprise' of change in dividend payout.... would they 'like' it?

Now, let me use your number of around 7.7 sen as a guide.... (f i had to guess ... it's probably between 6-8 sen. lol)
please correct me for this part next...
s0 7.7 sen for the year. they already paid out 4.9 sen.
which means... if say i whack now... i can only expect a 2.8 sen for the current sunreit fy.... (attractive enough to seduce me?)

ok, it has got to be at least a 5 year trade....
so they say... time is the best friend for the good stuff (but time is also the worst friend for the bad stuff...  hahaha )

the biggest question now is next year.. or more immediately the next quarter, where we really see the tahi hit the kipas....
as it will include the Apr and May numbers...
the hotel sector .... it will be hit so bad....... really bad... even now...as more business are now open for business, the hoteliers are hardly gonna to see any at all...
and the biggie for hoteliers each year..... is the ramadan buffet..... which i reckon is a big money booster for them....

the mall sector... can't say too much at this moment, as I have yet to step foot in any mall.... 
but the risk for me is.... the impact...
will sunreit give a pass (in rent) to its mall renters? And will it see closure of the smaller shops in the mall.... ie how many small retailers will survive 19?

so come next quarter, will the sunreit management reassess the dividend given the possible horror show?

ok next fiscal year is more important..
and the ovious focus is on the 7.7 sen? is it reliable?

i am counting it this way...
the first 2 quarter that had been paid, ie the 4.9 sen, was paid during when times are good...
so what if next fiscal year... what it dividend falls to 5.6 sen ( my cincai estimate lo)?

is 1.60 sexy enough to seduce me to marry the stock for 5 years?

ok...ok.... but the following year .....things should recover, right?
all this shall pass ma...

possible ..... this i would agree on....

so how?

for me, it's clearly not attractive enough la...
you know me...
it's either win big or just stay home....

anyway... if you ask me... i would think it's a much better option to wait and see the next quarter....

3 sen nia....

do feel free to collect... me still learning this reit stuff.....

LOL!

But .... this alternative fixed income instrument DOES NOT have a fix price...

It can UP...

It also can DOWN .....

cos..... cos......... cos ...................................