Well... every single time.... nothing good happens.

So this time, what's the story? Last I know, his 100 price for Top Glove......

Call for 100 .... but not yet 30 already dispose?..... LOL!

Standard SOP crap from him once more......


Such an asshole honestly.... if he can write 100... why sell when TG did not even touch 1/3 of the value?

no class jerk man.... next thing you know... he will brag about doing charity!

ps .... hope you all understand now why I despise him so so much. So rich and yet need to do all his nonsense. Quit writing la. If he is good, why need to advertise and promote everywhere what he buys? Hope water fish come help and prop up his shares so that he can sell ah?

KNS!

It's a totally different ball game if you look at how the trades are set up.

Take a penny stock selling at 5 sen, where the buy/sell bids are 0.045 and 0.05.

In simplicity...

To get the 'discount' at 0.045 the buy queue is usually massive.
which means you need to send a buy bid every day...
and it becomes a game of chance of you buying at 0.045.

if you do not want to wait (ie queue to buy at 0.045), you can take the seller at 0.05.
with the next bid at 0.055, you know you can 'make' money selling at 0.055....
but then usually the buyers are willing to Queue to buy at 0.05....
which means... it also becomes a game of chance of you selling at 0.055.

Get this simplicity stage so far?

Your chances of winning relies heavily on whether you can buy at your desired price and also sell at your desired price.

ok?

and for the above, it doesn't take into consideration of whether the stock is going up or going down or is the penny stock is good or not....
now if you put that into consideration... and then when you add into the consideration of the lottery of being able to buy/sell the stock, the risk intensifies...

every buy/sell bid spread percentage is massive.

get it right, one can really win big but if you screws it up... the losses can really magnify when one is in a rush to dispose the shares ie selling it to the buyers bid - consider the above example.

You bought at 0.05 ... stock falls to 4 sen. The buy/sell spread is 0.035/4 sen. But selling at 4 sen is super hard cos one needs to Queue and one needs to wait.... and so if one gives in, one need to sell at the buyers bid at 0.035.... ouch. Count it back... buy at 5 sen. Sell at 3.5 sen. Can you count the percentage in losses?

certainly not advisable for newbies and not suitable if one does not have substantial capital....

You must had caught the rebound.

No follow leh. You know I cannot play such trading. Never good at catching the rebound. Yup, my account catching cobwebs.

So much buybacks? If so much, sure attract speculators.

The last reported q... errr... u go see lo...




... have a good weekend la..

Cheers

Ouch!!

Now that's a surprise that you could be caught.

Aiyoyooo... as expected but this is something even worst lo...

Even without the rpt, casino business not good - worldwide.

Went Sunday morning. Got some time to talk some ayam.

Ok, my main focus always is making good trade on a good setup. There's got to be a plan.
I would rather lose a well planned trade then simply trade and win...

This was Top Glove chart on the 9th.



As noted several days b4, I mentioned the point that 'top top' for TG... ie Double Top was formed....
and there we were on the 9th... TG is right where the neckline is for Double Top.... and most of all, it was already trading with the uptrend channel being breached... and technically the stock was already weak since the correction in July (yes, it did reached a new high after the correction but the signs were there (via the lower traded volume) that the big boys weren't interested in participating in the rally at THAT point (do they not believe the stock go could much higher?) ....and most important, the down days kept on increasing... the clearest sign that the rally doesn't have legs no more... it needs a good correction.

and oh.... the volume.... the volume looked better on the 8th and 9th.... (increase volume on down days? ) .... but the one thing that needs to be mentioned is..... we need to remember that TG is now 3 times bigger. so whatever volume we see now.... we need to remember that TG is now a stock which is 3 times bigger!

That was where we were on the 9th...

So clearly, it wouldn't be good trade in my books to go in on the 10th... and when I saw the message.... it was starting to trade below the neckline already....

the thing I asked...

Aren't I clearly betting against the market? If the stock decline started gathering momentum, do I even know where the exit door is? ( yeah... I could guess where the so called support is (hate such trading) or I could use % as my cut loss ... but nah, I fancied neither... )

and yeah.... what's the catalyst to enter the trade? Catch the rebound? Nah....

Everything else.... still the same for me. There's nothing new! Still waiting for TG to show me their big earnings... which is at least 1.5 B for the coming quarter...
Any earnings else is technically very, very good but we need to remember... it's already as expected by the market.... which is a joke really. TG could report 1 billion in profits.... which will be very, very good ...... 1 billion profit wo.... but then..... those marker scientist had already spoiled it lo cos such profit numbers was already as expected......

So I really dunno how to trade TG on the 10th.... and so TG closed on the 10th like this...





and btw the buyback is reckless....
But for now... nobody will care .... cos the stock rebounded nicely.... dragging the whole market up....

For me, I have no idea how the market would react to the news....

But .... there's nothing new really in that article really......

this forced labor issue was actually highlighted on the Guardian in 2018....

mixed feelings on it...

1. such labor practice is what it is.... these so called employment agents made unscrupulous lots of money. It's really terrible....

2. It exist everywhere la....other countries too.

3. the amount involved it's really staggering. Harta recently said it paid (reimburse) these agents up to 40 million in recruitment fees!! (googleable these news)

TG on the other hand, clearly could have done better. Once the report was made in an international news, the Guardian, in 2018, TG should have wise up and clean up shop. It's now 2020.... why dilly dally?

Okay. You are talking about the boss.

Took me a while to figure that out. Sorry but am not following this too closely.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/late...d-order-buildup

That one?

My rough idea on TG remains. I agree profit will be good, very good but the problem is how good is the 'very good'.

The market had been totally disjointed by the wild, wild projections which in turn has helped drove the stocks very high. So as we have been seeing in other reports, most glove makers despite reporting very good profits but their profits is really meh.

Yes... it's all as been as expected.

The other day that Cimb report, which gave a rather modest TP for TG is basing the tp on 18x 21CY eps. Which works out to some 51 sen plus for cy21 or on average 12.75 eps per quarter. Multiplied by 8.1 billion shares, that's about 1 bil profit per quarter for the said CY.

Some had given as high as 1.2 billion per quarter if I am not mistaken.

So here's the issue.

If TG reports for the coming quarter a profit of 1 billion, which is really very, very good (imo) and certainly is deemed as a robust profit under the boss eyes, but this number, I tell you, is simply a meh.

It's as expected.

... and this is the problem.


Ps.. I am not a fan of the boss. Ok?

This post has been edited by Boon3: Sep 13 2020, 03:15 PM

8tv? So drastic? Lol.


Sorry ah. I do not trust bosses and definitely not this one.

If profits were so good, they should not done the buyback and instead focus on dividends.

Just doing some catch up reading. Saw the Macquaire report posted on the Edge.


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/macq...dodTqG_vndeEjEI

This part is most utterly interesting imo.


Macquarie expects Top Glove to post a net profit of RM1.75 billion for FY20, which will rise to RM10.3 billion FY21, before easing to RM2.02 billion for FY22.

1) Those numbers are far more optimistic really.

2) look at those numbers. 10 bil profit for fy21!!!!!

3) Just like reports from CIMB, the fy 22 does notlook promising. From 10 bil profit, they expect profits to ease to 2 bil. Ease is such a gentle word here. Cos it literally says profits is expected to plunge a lot in fy 22.

4) They cite fy numbers. The proper standard unlike those local jokers who used CY numbers.

5) let's compare. The latest cimb report the other day.



The arrows. They too highlight a plunge in earnings come fy22.

6) now unlike cimb, the folks at M, they are calling out the decline... which I believe they have a solid case. Moving forward, the glove makers profits are like a time bomb... earnings will plunge once the ASP normalises... which to me sound logical.

Well.. do think about it.

And yeah, you know me.. I have no position now and I don't think I will want any position in the near future...

GL

1. Look and compare the 'trend' of the profit between M and Cimb....

FY2020. M has it at 1.75 Billion. Cimb has it at 1.589 B.
FY2021 M has it at 10.3 Billion. Cimb has it at 5.313 B.
FY2022 M has it at 2.02 billion. Cimb has it at 1,905 B.

Both saying the same exact thing. Big profits for 2021 (which we all know) and Huge DECLINE in profit in 2022.

Both saying the same thing ....

very unique yes? But M has said as it is... it did not sugar coat anything...
and because the market prices forward ( Question now for you is do you want to price it on 21 numbers or 22 numbers?) and based on 22 numbers, well TG is not gonna be priced so highly.

Is there anything wrong with that statement from M?
Nope.

The only difference is CIMB has the same exact profit trend and CIMB fy22 numbers are even lower but CIMB chose not to value TG based on fy22 numbers.

Well this is the crux of it, yes?

M downgrades TG based on fy22 numbers... numbers which CIMB has it even lower....

2. I am not here to convince you what to do with your trades. I am only sharing what I think from I see..... okay?

3. Friend... I really, really, really do not want to read any articles from i3. Serious hor... so do excuse me if I don't attempt to read that link at all. And I have refrain from the Stock Discussion thread as it was horribly the same as i3....so I have not read that thread for few days already.

As it is... at this moment... both CIMB and M recognizes the huge DECLINE in profits come 2022. M took action and highlighted it. CIMB chose to remain silent on it.




okay? This for me is what's interesting.... for me lor......

Cimb target price is based on fy 21.

Macquarie target price is based on fy 22.

But the important thing is both of them agree that such extraordinary profit cannot be sustainable. And once it declines, the profit decline will be massive.

ChAOoz what's your opinion?

Yes, I do not really care about TPs and in fact, to be honest, I have been reading much lesser reports....
Guilty as hell! Lazy as hell! LOL!

But in this moment.. TG and Superman fortunes lies heavily on the TPs... yeah oh well... it is what it is...
and the article on the Star blaming M for their 'brave' downgrade and thus, blaming M for the sharp correction on TG is simply ridiculous in my 3 sen opinion.

Stocks always needs to consolidate. That's a fact of life. And them glove stocks never had one good consolidation until recently... So that consolidation was much needed.

And the biggest brain damage for me was why blame M soley? Yes, it was a drastic downgrade .. but look at where we are... FY 21 numbers will be coming in soon... and to give a review on TG based on 21 numbers, is for me, seriously near sighted....

stocks are priced/valued based on their future earnings... and fy22 numbers are not far away... what? some 4 or 5 quarters away only what... so to based their call on fy22 numbers is logical....

and yes... CIMB had basically the same set of numbers. In fact, their fy22 numbers is even lower than M...

so why didn't CIMB had the balls to call it out as it is? I cannot brain that. It's in their OWN tables... their own estimates.... which showed a massive earnings downtrend comes fy22.... so why...oh why... doesn't it have the courage to call it as it is?

and you know what... if these jokers are correct in their estimation.... ahem... sooner .... others will have to start calling the DOWNGRADES!

no?

btw... see... these stocks were trading in a very lackluster manner recently...
stocks were hitting the peak but on the low volume...
why tarak interest from the big boys?
were they all aware of the coming normalisation of the ASP ? which meant drastic decline in earnings is in the forcast?
could this be why?


lol ... just had a nice bowl of curry...
so a bit spicy my comments... LOL!!!



and wow... the market is rather so kind to Genting M...
looks like their all okay for Genting M to be the designated ATM machine...

ChAOoz why you tag me the other thread...

the thing is ... we now have 2 of them giving fy22 profits to be around 1.9 to 2 bil ,,,, that's about 24+ eps based on 8.1 billion shares...

and very soon... new reports will have to be based on fy22 numbers and not fy21 numbers....


ehm... get the 'risk'?

See.. those that know me... would know that one phrase I used b4.... 'use charts but don't let the charts use me'...


Well... a double top was formed... The neckline was broken... and the stock staged a wild comeback thanks to the reckless buybacks from the company.... and so here we are where we are.

Btw... The possible top top forming was noted on Aug 25th...

just saying la..

... yup ... anything can happen in 6 months.....


anyway... I have written this event M event down...

just amazing...
two brokerage having almost the same set of estimates...
one got 'blamed' for telling it as it is.... whilst the other just kept quiet as if it isn't there....

yup... market bull and the bears....