So quiet.....

INKP is doing well....

Orna?




Faster la.... gimme some more tipsy!!!

Still keeping INKP..

Stock market seems like not so condusive lately.. even stocks shows good earning reports is not going up.. maybe have to wait a while for the mojo.

INKP have a few shocker lately, price plunged 20% when there are report of environmental violations, later when the news is quashed went back to normal.

So volatile..

Waiting for your mojo issit?

I see newspaper raising prices.... Orna prices ada increase?

Paper and pulp prices is going up non stop.. latest news.





I would be careful with Orna, which is a USER of pulp. While the selling price of the products will undoubtedly rise, it's raw material price will also do so. Only those that can benefit 100% is those with feedstock that is priced constant (like pulp producers from wood).

Oh yeah. Which is why companies like Orna manages their stock of raw material well or Orna have the ability to raise their prices higher and faster than the price of pulp.

Yes, this depends on their management and their raw material stock period.

I am looking at 3883 as well.. a better proxy. But the stock is very very quiet..



After reading the above ... might not be a good bet for PULP users..

I have not bought Orna or other paper stock except for INKP.

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2017, 10:46 AM

... and the chart is showing it.

It appears to be trading in the range 1.37 - 1.48, which indicates the market is hesitant to take the stock higher despite its recent stellar earnings...

There's also a possibility of a flag pattern developing...

both indicating the market wants to see the next set of earnings.

This quote for QR also makes me hesitant..



This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2017, 10:48 AM

Like I mentioned last month post #1221

... So I looked at the inventory numbers the last couple quarters.

Q4 16. Inventory was at 37 mil
Q1 17. Inventory was at 40 mil
Q2 17. Inventory was at 45 mil

I believe that it's not conclusive as you know Inventory could be quite broad based. Right? (more so since I know nuts about this industry). In this case, is it inventory of raw materials or inventory of what? Assuming for the better, could it mean that that the management stocked more as the raw materials prices went higher?

( tolong ajar sikit )

Inventory can be two things... raw materials or finished goods.

Both is also good IF the price of raw material is rising and finished goods also rising.

But we dont know is.. if it is finished goods already pre-order or signed PO long ago with lower prices. Then they will take a hit..

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 4 2017, 10:05 AM

but based on the data, the inventory (raw or fg) is increasing. wouldnt those inventory have been used if there are POs to fulfill?

Right... as such in cases like this, it should be considered in the risk factor.

So do you want to wait for QR? or do yo want to take the risk?

Some PO are one shot delivery.. especially bigger ones. We dont have enough info to speculate.

I think we need to find other paper counters with more compelling story..

PPHB which is a user of pulp.. reported a poor set of earnings.. Higher sales, lower profit. Might be due to super high pulp prices.

Got any other companies to look see look see?

More interested in raw pulp or recycle pulp business. safer..

INKP already >50% mark..

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 4 2017, 10:38 AM

Others? No idea la... but stocks like Orna and PPHP, they have so little scripts.... anyone achoo.... they can fly straight to the wall...

I just checked, most paper mills in malaysia import raw materials (pulp) or wastepaper.. domestic supply not enough.

Might want stay sideline a bit..

I found out from the AR that it has been having a high percentage of raw materials + consumables for the past 4 years at around 80-85% of total inventory. As compared with PPHB and MUDA, both have raw material level at only around 40% of total inventory.

What does the higher percentage of raw material vs work in progress and finished goods imply?

Oh btw, the increase in inventory value might be due to old inventory being replaced by new inventory which is bought at higher price?


China imposed import ban on waste paper, that would make price of waste paper in China to rise due to insufficient supply. But on the international front, there would be extra supply and the price of waste would have to go down. For Muda, which uses waste paper as raw material, wouldn't it benefit them?

To make more more, it's to the company advantage for the company advantage to have a cheaper cost.
So having more raw materials (at cheaper price) helps.
Finished goods using cheaper raw material, would also helps, yes?



YES. But since the raw material is sky rocketing......

Wastepaper ban to china, end up china going mad for demand for pulp.. either virgin or recycled. When pulp demands goes up the roof, wastepaper goes up too..

Virgin pulp = From acacia trees (INKP, Aprilasia, Sabah Forest Industry..)
Recycled pulp = From wastepaper (Local malaysian firms)

China not only due to wastepaper, but demand for carton boxes exceed industry production, due to .. alibaba.

So now you know ARTIFICIAL demand is up the roof... but then hor, raw material price getting higher without LOCAL demand of finished goods going higher.. might not be a smart combo.

Winners are those pulp makers.. especially virgin pulp, as the tress need to be planted 5-8 years before harvesting (when price is cheap) and constant priced raw materials...

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 5 2017, 08:45 AM