Go go go:
2Q = 400m
3Q = 500m
4Q=  600m

Thank you for the tipsy

What i think that the stock burst up with huge volume and black candle, that is a bad sign for me. I think any rebound will not able to exceed the previous price, unless it consolidate for quite some time and burst up with volume.

Look at esceram also same thing happen.

is KYY's calculation on topglove TP RM100 achievable? what is he smoking?

Thank you for the tipsy

What i think that the stock burst up with huge volume and black candle, that is a bad sign for me. I think any rebound will not able to exceed the previous price, unless it consolidate for quite some time and burst up with volume.

Look at esceram also same thing happen.

His calculation is as follows:
Assuming every month selling price increases by 10% and production cost remain constant 

Itu unker koon sudah hantam topgun and stuck there

Topgun have to wait clearance from US lah, if not their share price will not move.

if superman QR nett profit 400m, it justifies its price to be RM20+ right.

this further proves market sentiment is a very determinant factor in the share market.

this further proves market sentiment is a very determinant factor in the share market.

Thanks to the syndicates playing different themes in rotation.

calling boon taikor!

i like to ask u a favor... to take a fresh look at superman.

my read:

daily candles... do u call today's candle a hanging man? it closed on a high note.

the rsi is high but not excessive.

there is still 2 more days b4 the QR results are out.

i have to make a decision tmr morning... to keep it until QR out or sell some/all of it.

i am betting on their PAT at circa rm200mil.

so, i am not expecting rm30, 35 in price.

but wud not like to miss out if it can get to 26, 28.

after that, it can sink to 20, 15... never mind.
what do u think?

TQVM, i owe u one.

Hehe. Yes gold run. See a good story, camp on it and sell it once its hype.
Jewelry counter Positive Spin:
Many gold inventories. Due to low sales during MCO. So old stock = low raw material cost, so with rising gold price you can profit from the difference between cheap raw material and high price finish goods.

Tomei vs Poh Kong
Poh kong 500+m inventories. Tomei 300+m inventories (as per last QR report) (We assume all their inventories are gold  ) (i feel abit scientist like now).

This would mean if all their inventory holdings never sold since pre MCO. Tomei and Poh Kong inventory would now be value at increase 20% = (600m - Poh Kong), (360m - Tomei)

Assuming cost structure the same, this would mean next QR, we are expecting Net Profit to increase exponentially. As commodity trading, any small uptick in margin, would translate to big net profit difference. This is the nature of trading business, wont go too deep into this.

OK if you read until here, you would think. Wah all good, lets whack jewelry counters. But but but, what "analyst" wont mentioned is:

Valuation
Assuming today due to rising gold price poh kong earn 100m windfall profit and Tomei earn 60m windfall profit due to the rising gold price. How would it impact their valuation if everything remain the same ?

Poh Kong original market cap 200m+. So a 100m windfall profit, would justify a new 300m market cap = 50% increase from RM0.48 to RM0.72 +- share price

Tomei original market cap 70m+. So a 60m windfall profit would justify a new 130m market cap = 90% increase from RM0.45 to RM0.85 +- share price

But you see how much market value them now.     

Jewelry counter Risk:
Last run on Tomei / Poh Kong was circa 2017, shot up in expectation of rising gold price. Puncture after a few months, trap many bag holders.

What people don't realized is Tomei / Poh Kongs are essentially jeweler. They buy gold and manufactured jewelry. So rising gold price is a one time inventory gain effect. As their future buy in raw material price had increased, so essentially if gold were to go down, they would suffer a big one-off as well due to high raw material price and low sell price to customer.

Also rising gold price, would mean their future jewelry become expensive, hence with expensive jewelry pieces, this would mean lower sales. So actually a rising gold price is a one off effect and a negative long run effect for business.
TLDR: Can trade jewelers counters on sentiment and a good story to spin, but don't invest for long term. It's a shitty business with low margins and cyclical due to gold price.

casino de bursa, ppl dont care nowadays.

I felt the same when I hold Harta before QR release two days ago.
When I monitored volume and movement on the day before it release, it's give me a signal to sell it before it dive on next day.

casino de bursa, ppl dont care nowadays.

Hehe. Yes gold run. See a good story, camp on it and sell it once its hype.
Jewelry counter Positive Spin:
Many gold inventories. Due to low sales during MCO. So old stock = low raw material cost, so with rising gold price you can profit from the difference between cheap raw material and high price finish goods.

Tomei vs Poh Kong
Poh kong 500+m inventories. Tomei 300+m inventories (as per last QR report) (We assume all their inventories are gold  ) (i feel abit scientist like now).

This would mean if all their inventory holdings never sold since pre MCO. Tomei and Poh Kong inventory would now be value at increase 20% = (600m - Poh Kong), (360m - Tomei)

Assuming cost structure the same, this would mean next QR, we are expecting Net Profit to increase exponentially. As commodity trading, any small uptick in margin, would translate to big net profit difference. This is the nature of trading business, wont go too deep into this.

OK if you read until here, you would think. Wah all good, lets whack jewelry counters. But but but, what "analyst" wont mentioned is:

Valuation
Assuming today due to rising gold price poh kong earn 100m windfall profit and Tomei earn 60m windfall profit due to the rising gold price. How would it impact their valuation if everything remain the same ?

Poh Kong original market cap 200m+. So a 100m windfall profit, would justify a new 300m market cap = 50% increase from RM0.48 to RM0.72 +- share price

Tomei original market cap 70m+. So a 60m windfall profit would justify a new 130m market cap = 90% increase from RM0.45 to RM0.85 +- share price

But you see how much market value them now.     

Jewelry counter Risk:
Last run on Tomei / Poh Kong was circa 2017, shot up in expectation of rising gold price. Puncture after a few months, trap many bag holders.

What people don't realized is Tomei / Poh Kongs are essentially jeweler. They buy gold and manufactured jewelry. So rising gold price is a one time inventory gain effect. As their future buy in raw material price had increased, so essentially if gold were to go down, they would suffer a big one-off as well due to high raw material price and low sell price to customer.

Also rising gold price, would mean their future jewelry become expensive, hence with expensive jewelry pieces, this would mean lower sales. So actually a rising gold price is a one off effect and a negative long run effect for business.
TLDR: Can trade jewelers counters on sentiment and a good story to spin, but don't invest for long term. It's a shitty business with low margins and cyclical due to gold price.

100m windfall is max already. Assuming all inventory since last quarter nvr sold and now only liquidate at current gold price.

Also this windfall of 100m is one off not like a continuous profit machine. So max also give it an increase share valuation of 50% from base only, not the now 300% share price increase poh kong is enjoying.

possible their earnings from goreng shares in bursa is more than their retail earnings? LOL

those glove PPE related counter all celebrating CNY