This might help.

Data on available reserves & consumption trend.

Malaysia Energy Information Hub

Should be around 15+ years for oil and like 30+ years for natural gas, depending on the consumption trend and new discovery of reserves.

It's basic extrapolation which is by no means accurate.

But looking at the rate of consumption and the last estimated figure for available reserves, we can infer 3 scenarios.

-consumption grows linearly (simplistic but capture the trend to a limited extent)
-consumption growth remain stagnant as per last record (highly unlikely)
-use average consumption data throughout the period and calculate the reserve from there (not really good for anything, i guess)

These figures are always subject to change depending on the newly discovered reserve, or new data on energy consumption for the latest year. Our oil export is partly from our own reserves, and partly re-export from other countries. So we do actually touch our reserves.

And yes we do import refined oil. From Singapore, because the capacity to refine crude oil to finished product isn't enough for domestic consumption. At least RAPID completion helps a bit with that. But for good while in the last decade, a significant portion of refined petroleum product (gasoline and all) was imported from Singapore.

If you're curious on further info, maybe you can check out the United Nations COMTRADE statistics for data on export and import destinations & volume of our crude oil (HS Code 2709) as well as refined oil though (HS Code 2710)

Probably.

I'm basing my estimate based on the 492,000 barrels daily capacity limit from the 5 refineries before the completion of RAPID, as published in the National Energy Balance 2018.



However over longer time period, the average from 1980-2018 was at 589,175 barrels a day.

Those numbers are still lower than the ceiling pre-determined by the National Depletion Policy 1980 at 650,000 barrels a day though.

If indeed those refinery managed to meet the domestic petrol demand, then what explains our high importation of HS2710 from Singapore?

In 1992, 92.59% of our refined petroleum import was from Singapore, constituting 18.93% of our total import value from Singapore for that year.

In 2014, refined oil import from Singapore represents 44.8% of total Malaysia import value from Singapore at 11.4 billion USD

Maybe I misread the information somewhere, but would love to hear your opinion.