Petronas 1L = 3p

As of 2nd April data, below is what I personally estimate:

If no sudden subsidy
RON95 ▲ 9 sen to RM2.29
Diesel ▲ 10 sen to RM2.28

If maintain current subsidy
RON95 ▼ 1 sen to RM2.19 (suspected 10 sen subsidy)
Diesel ▲ 1 sen at RM2.19 (suspected 9 sen subsidy)

Or peg at current prices
RON95 ◆ at RM2.20 (with 9 sen subsidy)
Diesel ◆ at RM2.18 (with 10 sen subsidy)

You can view the latest info on page 1. Calculation is here http://goo.gl/cpYiBN

Let's have fun and try to estimate how much is this subsidy costing the government and thus, the rakyat. According to the National Energy Balance 2015 (Page 38), http://www.st.gov.my/index.php/en/all-publ...gy-balance-2015 We are consuming 12,800 ktoe of petrol and 9,385 ktoe of diesel a year.

So let's do some conversion to get the figures into litres
1 ktoe = 1,000 toe
1 toe = 7.33 boe
1 boe = 158.987295 litres

thus we are consuming 14,916,823,966 litres of petrol per year or 286,861,999 litres of petrol per week, or 40,980,285 litres of petrol per day.
For diesel, we are consuming 10,937,061,947 litres of diesel per year, or 210,328,114 lires of diesel per week, or 30,046,873 litres of diesel per day.

So, with the data above, and assuming 2015-2018 figures are roughly the same, the government subsidy cost per day is around RM4,917,634 for petrol and RM4,507,030 for diesel.

How much has it cost so far? If we use my previous estimates,

Week 29 March: RM28,686,200 petrol (10 sen) + RM18,929,530 diesel (9 sen)
Week 5 April: RM22,948,960 (8 sen) + RM18,929,530 diesel (9 sen)
Week 12 April: RM17,211,720 (6 sen) + RM12619687 (6 sen)
Week 19 April: RM34,423,440 (12 sen) + RM31,549,217 (15 sen)

Total estimate cost of subsidy so far is: RM185,298,284

One of their campaign promises is to stabilize the fuel price to RM1.50. I’m guessing through fuel subsidy.

In any case, i think i’ll stop monitoring the fuel price for now. I don’t think PH will want to revert back to the market price and incur the rakyat’s wrath!

Thank you all and hope you enjoyed the ride!

Latest calculation and table of estimated price can be found at this link: https://goo.gl/cpYiBN

Price of RON97 should've fallen to RM2.51/L on Saturday 8/6, but it was announced earlier that the previous week price would be maintained due to the Hari Raya long weekend - the government is getting a free income of 12 sen per litre of RON97 being filled up this week.

The RON97 price for this coming week, as of 7/6, would be around RM2.55. Stay tuned on Thursday for a more accurate estimate.