QUOTE(voyage23 @ Jun 17 2017, 03:30 PM)
Still sticking to my beliefs of 5 funds max. Just entered India not long ago. But future plans will include consolidating EISC and KGF to just KGF only. Enter into CIMB china. Move all my ASx funds to Esther Bond.
Moving ASx fixed price funds to Esther bond might not be a good idea. ASx correlation to equities is near zero, while Esther bond to say, kgf, is 0.24 (post 5196 page 260). You might want to ask Xuzen to run algozen with ASx and see..Some thoughts on the bonds recommended by algozen - they seemed somewhat risky. In the literature of standard 60/40 or 70/30 stock/bond portfolios, backtesting is usually done with S&P500 / 10 year treasuries. US treasuries and other high grade government debt are much safer and have negative correlation with stocks. In comparison, Esther bond is mostly emerging market corporate bonds. From the fund factsheet, 20+% of Esther bond are junk bonds (below BBB), assuming that 'Others' are grades lower than B.
RHB EMB seems a bit dodgy to me; I can't find any mention of the credit ratings of its holdings anywhere, and in %country allocation, 'others' has an allocation of 60%! What gives?! Better hope its not full of junk.
Anyway, its correlation to local stocks is surprisingly negative. Just a wild guess - when foreign funds pulled out of bursa en masse a few years ago, myr was severely devalued. This decreases the NAV of local stocks, while increasing the NAV of foreign bonds (RHB EMB) in ringgit terms. The RHB EMB might not be hedged to myr (can't find any mention) while Esther bond is. Hence Esther bond behaves more like EM/corporate bond - low positive correlation to stocks.
I doubt both bonds would fare well when the next economic crisis comes.
In 2015 and 2016, myr depreciated nearly 30% against USD, which affects the relative performance of local vs international stocks/bonds. This is probably a one off event (hopefully!), so it might not be prudent to base portfolios primarily off this time period. Algozen is based on past 3 years data, right?
Jun 20 2017, 08:16 PM

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