QUOTE(Darkripper @ May 18 2017, 02:22 PM)
The only reason for that is because i'm waiting for a drop in Malaysia market (since most of bond fund is exposed to Malaysia). The optimum allocation for CMF in my view is about 10-15%. So with the India and Asia exposure, the only exposure left should either be China and Malaysia (or just Malaysia).
Anyway, hows your POV on the outlook of funds in China? Or even Indonesia.
If you look at the returns graph of AH select bond, you will notice that the volatility is extremely low. Even during the great 2008 crisis, the fund price only took a marginal dip. I doubt you will find it dipping meaningfully to buy it at a deep discount.
Just a few more thoughts as I continued my reading. We are almost at the 10 year cyclical recession cycle, but yet there are no signs of the economy hitting a brick wall. In fact, brexit, trump and the not too long ago euro crisis didn't trigger a massive sell down and economic depression.
I came across this article that states the world indexes have relatively flatlined over the last few years, and an author commented that this is actually the "cyclical recession", instead of your usual crash.
Coming into 2016-2017, AP and emerging markets appears to have resumed their bullish gains. Europe has continued their QE strategy, and we hear news like Apple is sitting on a ungodly cash pile waiting to invest. These all makes you think are we in for a massive bull run for the next year or two. Obviously this will highly depend on the rise of the USD and oil prices, but the general sentiment is the market is being very cautious. It is as if they're waiting for the signal "Go!", then they'll sprint for a bit, but pull their brakes when jitters are felt from North Korea, French Election, Trump etc.
It is also encouraging to note that after looking at the various funds, a good number of them are sitting on a ~15-20% cash pile ready to pounce.
This is reminiscent to the local property market, whereby everyone was expecting the bubble to pop due to possible buyer's default, but lo and behold, this problem have been greatly exaggerated and there are now talks of "market recovering" etc etc.
That said, PE for developed markets are sky high and as a result i will limit my exposure to them until their earnings can improve accordingly.
Man, all this information makes me wish I paid more attention during finance subjects in uni, so I can interpret charts better. There are so much more to know and reading more just makes you realise how much I don't know.