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Fund of the month Nov

Eastspring Investments Global Emerging Markets Fund
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New FSM article

Interesting Takeaways From Investment Experts At Fundsupermart’s WWTI 2018

https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=9355

For investors who missed out our annual investment event – What And Where To Invest 2018, we have summarised and would like to share with you some of the market outlooks shared by the experts during the event.

US

Economic is expected to grow at 2.5-2.6% but it seems at the late cycle of expansion.

Labour market points to an “full employment” for US economy; but inflation remains low.

The recent approval on tax reform is known as the most ambitious since Ronald Regan’s supply-side policies (lower corporate and individual tax & accelerate deductions for capital spending).

Watch out for the tighter monetary policy despite low inflation.

EUROPE

Economic growth is improving amid accommodative monetary policy.

Inflation is not expected to hit target in 2018, hence the first policy rate hike in not expected to kick in this year.

Political risk has faded but watch out for earlier than expected tightening monetary policy.

CHINA

China is expected to head for a slower but better-quality growth.

China Structural reform enhances investors’ confidence; supply-side reform improves ROE and management quality.

After the deleveraging in 2017, credit quality has improved among borrowers in China with corporate debts as a percentage of GDP stabilising after the rapid increment since 2011.

The contribution from private consumption to China GDP is expected to surpass the share of fixed investment, emerging as the primary economic driver for China.

Chinese Banks and construction players are the direct beneficiaries of One-Belt-One-Road.

ASIA

Economic growth is likely to moderate marginally due to high base, but the quality of growth is expected to improve as the economic driver is likely to broaden out from exports into consumption and investment.

Asian equities market is seeing a healthy EPS revision.

China and Hong Kong remain as the most attractive markets in Asian given their cheaper valuation.

MALAYSIA

Malaysia is expected to continue the robust broad-based growth – economic growth is expected to stay above 5%.

Strong macro fundamentals likely to translate into better corporate earnings for market to re-rate higher.

Ringgit is fundamentally undervalued. Rising commodity prices, hawkish BNM, improving foreign reserve and current account surplus will be the strong drivers for the currency.

The recent rate hike decision was marginally good for Banks and low gearing companies; possible of another hike but not so soon.

Benign core inflation remains supportive of equities.

Malaysia – a sweet spot for foreign direct investment.

GE 14 is likely to be held in March/ April 2018.

KEY RISK TO WATCH OUT IN 2018

Global economic risks are skewed to the downside.

Global equities markets are trading at a rather expensive valuation as compared to early 2017.

According to Fear & Greed Index, there are some signs that investors are too optimistic.

Watch out for the tighter monetary policy.

As central banks’ balance sheet turns from expansion to contraction, corporate credits are at higher risk than equities.

CONCLUSION

All in all, the consensus view is that the synchronised global growth is likely to sustain into 2018. On top of that, majority of the speakers are positive on the global equities outlook especially in the first half of the year before entering into a tighter financial condition where several central banks are expected to move towards normalisation in monetary policy.