You can give it some test cases based on historical data. Eg the China equity plunge feb 2016, the Malaysian small cap plunge in Aug 2016 etc and tell us which is better, to switch out or to stay invested.

after you had considered the plan for timing to sell......you have to consider the plan for timing to reenter too....example  (rephrased from your scenario)
"timing will be crucial so it would be important to stick to pre-determined metrics on getting gains e.g. switch to EQs when the fund increased X% within a certain time span. Take emotion out of it, and do it methodically.

 

I have a feeling that looking at it pure quantitatively does not work.

For example, if you say you would selling a fund if it drops 5% in a week.

But that's the exact criteria someone else set for himself to perform a top up to a fund to do cost averaging. 

Maybe the quantitative measure has to tie to some qualitative events, eg if US has started a war with N. Korea. 

Problem also with war.

For example, if US aircraft launcher is around the Korean sea, the shares are already plunging down. Next the aircraft launcher goes off somewhere else, the market recovered.

And if you really wait for a bomb to be dropped, likely your fund prices already dropped > 10% ?

Bad time is good time for shopping. If you run and hide in cash, you are missing opportunities.

That's why for this purpose, I am building up my cash to take advantage of the next big plunge ue any time (in this 1-2 years time). Hold back temptation to buy.

Excuse me? I have already went through that with ASG. Thank you very much. Lost 15%+ within few weeks. Did I panic and sell it off? No.
Want me to go on some more? Can. People were saying SG economy slowing down, S-reits doom, oversupply office and industrial space, what did I do? Pump in money into S-reits. Today I am sitting on double digit returns for my S-reits. Some still single digit. Yes. Singapore reits. Not maalysian reits.  So it's 3x my loss vs just 1 time. One can get high dividend when no one wants it (yes I am targeting high dividends for my stocks)

Singtel was sold down because of new competition in AU and SG. Did I just look? Nope. I jumped in. I could have bought Singtel at SGD4+, but I waited for my chance to get it at SGD3.9x+ (I was too impatient). If further selldown of Singtel happen, will I buy, hell yes.

Now I am waiting for next opportunity (amazon opening shop in SG soon), selldown of S-reits again. The key is confidence in what you want to buy. Imagine getting >10% dividend yearly because of your choice.

Read this and you won't be so scared of down market.
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot....dollars-by.html
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot....e-strategy.html

Nope. That is not my blog. But one SG blogger. Wish it was mine.

Always have warchest ready to deploy to get juicy dividends. Market downturn is an opportunity. I don't need to be contrarian. I just need to bide my time to get juicy dividend for income.

For UT, I am also doing the same. Waiting for next opportunity to come then pump money in SG UT.

Anyway, DCA works on the principal that during down times, if one put in fix amount of money regardless of market condition, downtime helps one to buy at "cheaper price". If one panic during downtime instead of DCA as normal, one will lose out. By DCAing, one will bring down the cost of the fund overtime.

So your idea is to wait until a war is declared before you take a sell action on your fund ?

As I said, by then the funds would have already dropped 10-20%.

Maybe it can still drop another 10-20%. But maybe the war ended early, the funds climb back up immediately.

So what is your strategy ? Still too many possibilities. LOL.

jdgobio I don't believed in hiding in cash/bond during bad time. If bad time, the discount is not nice for me, I won't buy.

Everyone have different strategy. Yours is hide in cash/bond. Mine is take look. If not enough blood, I hold my off my purchases until more blood is seen.

After reading many blogs with the blogger's own proof, I came to the conclusion. one need to be brave to take look at when blood are on the street. By taking action during such time, one will be rewarded by
1) juicy dividend
2) possible triple digit returns.

No choice if one wants the 2 stuff.

Are there even more senior investors here? Other than xuzen who openly says he's 40+ the rest all seem to be newbies who has less than 12 months experience with UT. What happen to those who were active since version 1 of this thread?

Yes. Pinky already mia for so long..
Even the stock market discussion also missing

Maybe he busy with work.  So no time for surf lowyat

Added: I remembered he mention FSM portfolio on auto mode now.. No more doing rebalancing thingy..

Actually I do not think the seniority in investment is necessarily related to credibility. Old dogs will stick to old tricks. 

wah, you still want to pretend you are sharing your opinions and ideas, when in actual fact you are sharing stupidity and nonsense. 

Your above comment in reply to my long post... looks like english, sounds like english, but it is greek. All are incoherent nonsense.

"Yes. Most likely a quick pullback. But must pounce when there are opportunities. That's why must have ready cash."
So the YTD gains and monthly gains for the last 3 months are what? Are they not buying "opportunities"?

Do you know that a pullback is defined as a drop of about 5% from the peak? So tell me whether it is smart or foolish to wait 6 months for a sharp 1 day drop of 5% to make your purchase, and missed the 6 months gain of 20%.

'In the past 6 months, an UT fund had grown by 20%, this morning today, its benchmark index drops 5%, today is the best time to buy with all your money that you have been saving and keeping for the last 6 months.'

It sounds logic or not? Of course it sounds logic to a jobless graduate who is funded by parents. Easy money - easy come, easy go.

"Can a crash happen? Of course. You just need either china or US to be in trouble. People seems to forget that unit trust is still a basket of stocks."
Why are you saying this in reply to my post? Did I say that the market will never crash? Did you really read and comprehend what I wrote?

"A pullback is nothing. A crash is what one needs to be worried whether the company will retrench or not."
Do you know what happens during a market crash? Don’t la talk like a smartass who has been through a real market crash and thinking that a market crash will affect everyone in the country. Then what the fuck were you going on and on about hold cash?

You are one fucking moron… yes, I am damn annoyed. (Yes, I too can pretend to be angry, just like you pretend to be smart and talking like a know-it-all authoritative figure when you're just a jobless duke fresh out of school.)

Who wouldn’t be annoyed?  I took the time to share some opinions and to further the discussion, and here you are replying to my post, trying to counter my input and brushing it aside with a seemingly sounding authoritative voice – "A pullback is nothing. A crash is what one needs to be worried whether the company will retrench or not."

What a moronic, trolling, waste-of-time-and space, useless piece of shitty comment which you had so effortlessly pull out of your arse. Great job! Well done!

Go ahead. We see who will laugh to the bank when a crash comes. US (automobiles sales aren't great, US stocks are pricey, interest rate is low, uses of leverage is almost similar to before 2008), China is looking unstable. Let's see how the US or China going to rescue their economy this time around.

I will be prepared. I just need to wait. FOMO, that's real. But I rather have $$$ than FOMO. Know what you want. Do you want a measly 10% return one time or do you want a forever 10%+ dividend p.a/3 digit returns? I know what I want.

done switched 1/2 of EISC to TAGTF
done taken out 1% of CMF to enjoy fruit of the labour
done prepared my port for 2018.....
will just need to twerk from now till Jan if "things" does not sway too much....

Simplify it...try imagine shakira at 55 yrs n pregnant 7mths...ha-ha..get it?

I'm surprise they don't have a "backup" system that reroutes data through other means.

Their IT division need some competency upgrade.